Top 25 Ballot Breakdown (Feb. 25, 2025) + 5 conference tournament games to watch
The relevance of my Top 25 ballot at this point pales in comparison to the storylines of conference tournaments, NPI, and the at-large bid conversation. And that’s where the focus should be. So before the conference tournament chaos tips off tonight, I put together a quick breakdown of my ballot as I do each week, the 13th edition this season (12 regular season polls + Preseason), highlighting a few of my main thoughts and takeaways as I completed this edition of my Top 25.
For the rest of the week, expect comprehensive conference tournament coverage as we progress through the busiest week of the #d3hoops season. Below this ballot breakdown, I also put together a look at my Top 5 games to watch on tonight’s slate, with quarterfinal matchups from the WIAC, MIAC, CCIW, and OAC. Enjoy!
Week 12 Top 25 Ballot
Top 5
My Top 5 did not change, with NYU, Scranton, Bowdoin, Illinois Wesleyan, and UW-Oshkosh, in that order. Now, as I know some immediately responded to me, two of those five took losses this past week. So why didn’t Scranton and UW-Oshkosh drop?
I weighed that for quite a while after those results went final on Saturday and until the late stages of assembling my ballot yesterday morning. But at the end of the day, one result doesn’t change the strength—or my perceived strength—of a particular program. I weighed putting Bowdoin ahead of Scranton, but at the end of the day, I came back to both the eye test, where I’d give Scranton a slight edge, and the metrics. Scranton is No. 2 in offensive efficiency and No. 3 in defensive efficiency, while Bowdoin is No. 7 on offense and No. 6 on defense. Again, not a lot that separates the two. But Scranton, even with the loss at Elizabethtown and Bowdoin holding a 25-0 record, has the slightly better body of work at this point. But that is something I’ll keep a close eye on as Scranton plays through their Landmark Tournament and Bowdoin’s run through the NESCAC Tournament continues. It was a feel thing in this ballot based on watching both teams in recent weeks, but that could certainly change by next Monday, as we’ll see both against great competition later this week.
And as for UW-Oshkosh…I considered moving the Titans down, and when I broke it down, I really saw no reason to. Going 11-3 in the WIAC might as well be going undefeated in about 80% of the other leagues out there, considering how tough the competition is night in and night out. Oshkosh has 16 Massey Top 100 wins, a neutral court win over Trine that just looks better and better as time goes on, and the fifth-most efficient offense in the country. The Titans are one of the nation’s leaders in points per possession and lead the country in fewest turnovers per game (10.7). And they’ve kept that offensive discipline through an absolute gauntlet of a conference schedule, one that will hand any team at least a couple losses along the way, especially in the second half of the double round-robin slate. They have the depth and experience to win at a high level, and one road loss against a very talented UW-Stout team shouldn’t change that. The Titans are 22-3, even after playing the 11th-toughest schedule in D3, per Massey Ratings. That’s enough for me to keep them at No. 5
Rounding out my Top 10
Not much of a change here! I moved Catholic up just a bit to No. 8, as the Cardinals have floated up my ballot in recent weeks. We’ll hopefully find out pretty soon how they stack up against Elizabethtown for a third time (they went 1-1 vs the Blue Jays in the regular season) and I have a lot of confidence that this team is capable of a tournament run. Perhaps the gap between Catholic and Elizabethtown is not truly as wide as it is on my ballot, but that’s something I’ll need to continue to evaluate, and hopefully another head-to-head meeting between the two will help in that. But in regards to Catholic specifically, I do think they stack up well against a wide range because of the balance on the offensive end. They’ve got four very experienced guards/wings that can each give you 10-15 points night-in and night-out, and as we reach this point in the year, having that balance is even more valuable. I actually think they might be a better defensive team this year as well, and the efficiency numbers back that up (as does the eye test). Catholic is No. 11 nationally in defensive efficiency and forces 20.7 turnovers per game. That plays directly into their offense too, averaging 21.7 points off turnovers per game.
The middle of the order
My next tier of five teams is a very strong group, all of whom could be in that Top 10 mix. UW-Stout, Gettysburg, Christopher Newport, Baldwin Wallace, and Elizabethtown are all capable of playing with the nation’s best, as we visibly saw from Stout and ETown this past weekend. The one thing with Stout is I just couldn’t push them any higher, even after the Oshkosh win, after watching UW-Stevens Point win by 14 three days prior. That’s the WIAC for you, but Stout has not played particularly well in weekday games for a few weeks now, going 1-3 in their last 4. Yet I think there’s a tremendous upside with Stout, their senior leadership, and their offensive strength when they take care of the ball, and as a result, I had no problem leaving them just outside my Top 10 at No. 11. I’ve kept CNU ahead of Baldwin Wallace, because even if we’re matching defense for defense, I think the Captains have an edge. They lack the offense to complement it, but if we’re being honest, BW doesn’t shoot the lights out either. They have contrasting styles, and in both cases, it produces plenty of winning, as we’ve seen. Neither have necessarily dominated a ton of quality opponents, but they each have a handful of notable wins, and get it done on the defensive end. For CNU, I also really like what Gabbi San Diego brings to the table as one of the best point guards in the country from an on-court vision and ball security standpoint. The Captains will need to find some more consistent offense if they’re going to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament, though.
Elizabethtown ended up getting to No. 15 for me. What I appreciate about the Blue Jays is that their starting five complements each other so well. They each have their role and do it really well. DaniRae Renno and Jess King pace the frontcourt and give ETown an average rebounding margin of 8.9. Ella Gordon and Makenna Mummert, along with Cyleigh Wilson, are a steady presence in the backcourt. And Summer McNulty is the do-it-all scorer who also leads the team in assists and really scores it well from all three levels. They can and do beat teams in several different ways and are led by different contributors, which makes for a difficult matchup, as we saw from Scranton on Saturday. I won’t be surprised if I’m moving ETown higher in my ballot after the Landmark Tournament this week.
Up towards No. 20
I’ve got UW-Whitewater, Ohio Wesleyan, Wartburg, Johns Hopkins, and Randolph-Macon here. I know UWW is No. 25 in the poll, but I have more confidence in the Warhawks than that. It’s been a challenging year at times, learning to play without All-American Aleah Grundahl, who graduated after last season, but by this point it seems UWW has figured a few things out. That includes on the offensive end, where they have shot 42% or better in each of their last four games. And you can’t talk about UWW without mentioning Kacie Carrollo. Her ability to take over a game makes UWW dangerous as a team. The senior guard does just about everything for the Warhawks, and does it well, leading the WIAC in scoring (21.4 PPG), rebounding (9.0), assists (4.2/game), and 3-point percentage (43.6%). WIth the way UWW has played as of late, winning eight of their last 10, I kept them right in the middle of my ballot as a fringe Top 15-type team.
As for my next four, I think Ohio Wesleyan continues to be a team building momentum out of the NCAC. Their fifth-year senior trio, which includes the nation’s No. 2 assist leader, Elizabeth Homan, is the centerpiece of this team, and they have the pieces to make some noise in the tournament. Wartburg has made a steady climb back into the national conversation, but I think time will tell if they’re truly there at this point. They enter the postseason with 15 straight wins and a stellar scorer in Jaedon Murphy, who holds a streak of eight consecutive games of 14 points or more. Johns Hopkins remains one of the most efficient defenses in the country, and they beat Dickinson in resounding fashion, 68-45, on Saturday, which was nice to see after they barely got past the Red Devils in OT about a month ago. Randolph-Macon moved up a bit after completing the ODAC at 16-0, and the regular season at 24-1. We’ll see what the ODAC Tournament has in store, but this team has high expectations, and so far, has lived up to them.
My final five
East Texas Baptist, Bethel, Hope, Colorado College, UW-Stevens Point. That’s how my ballot concludes.
ETBU is 21-4 and playing great team basketball heading into the ASC Tournament, led by a solid backcourt and a floor general in Payton Hicks. Getting forward Hannah Ayala back for the final five games of ASC play has been key as well, as Ayala gives ETBU an inside presence that proved key in close wins over Millsaps and Wartburg. I’m actually two spots higher on the Tigers than the poll itself, and I do think ETBU is capable of a Sweet 16 run with an ideal first-weekend tournament pod in Texas. But time will tell on that.
Bethel is also 21-4 and in the midst of one of its best seasons in recent memory. We can only hope to get a third matchup this season between the Royals and Gustavus Adolphus with a MIAC title on the line later this week.
Hope is down at No. 23, which may seem odd, but I have struggled to keep Hope above a number of these other teams in the second half of my ballot. They’re 21-4, but struggled against Trine at home, and haven’t seemed to be at the same level defensively as they were early on. Hope is 79th right now in defensive efficiency. That said, the talent level remains very high with this team and Brian Morehouse and his staff are amongst the best in the country. I have no reason to move Hope any lower for the time being. They belong in the Top 25.
I put Colorado College back in this week. The Tigers are 23-2 and closed their regular season in the SCAC strong, winning 12 straight. Zoe Tomlinson is one of Division III’s most skilled post players, and can take over a game quickly if the opposing defense isn’t careful, which makes me a bit more confident in putting CC back on the ballot.
UW-Stevens Point not only beat UW-Stout by 14, but then went on the road and beat a talented UW-La Crosse team, 67-60. Those same two match up tonight in a WIAC quarterfinal, and I expect we’ll get another true WIAC battle. I know UWSP has had its inconsistencies, but the composition of Matt Hockett’s team, and seeing their performance last week, really made me take another look at the Pointers. Here’s the thing about UWSP that I’ve gathered while watching them: they play tough defense and they rebound. They won’t outscore most teams in the WIAC, but UWSP keeps the opponent off the boards better than anyone else in the league, gives themselves second-chance opportunities on offense, and defends with intent. It’s one of the reasons they’re forcing 15.9 turnovers per game in WIAC play.
5 conference tournament games I’m keeping an eye on today
UW-La Crosse at UW-Stevens Point | 8 p.m. ET | WIAC Quarterfinal: This is a must-win for La Crosse to keep its season alive, as they’re getting an at-large bid when they need it only 9.7% of the time. UWSP is in a more favorable spot, with an 86.7% chance at an at-large if they don’t win the AQ. But then there’s the dynamic I referenced above, with these two meeting for a second time in the span of four days. How that element will affect things, especially considering both games in the regular season were decided by a combined 12 points, is a huge aspect of this. Now you have two teams that are evenly-matched and very familiar with each other, playing in a postseason contest where one of the two basically has to win to keep its season alive. Doesn’t get more intense than that.
St. Benedict at Concordia Moorhead | 8 p.m. ET | MIAC Quarterfinal: I can’t say I expected to see these two in a MIAC quarterfinal with no chance at an at-large bid when the season began. Early on, CSB was a team to beat, with a win over UW-La Crosse and a four-point loss to John Carroll. But in MIAC play, they struggled, especially once star freshman post Sofia Baldessari suffered a season-ending injury. Concordia has been similarly up and down over the last two months, even with a strong core of returning seniors, but finished the regular season 5-2 and has some momentum heading into tonight’s contest. Both teams need a win to extend their seasons, no question about it. It’s win or go home tonight for the Bennies and Cobbers on the North Dakota-Minnesota line.
Elmhurst at Wheaton | 8 p.m. ET | CCIW Quarterfinal: Elmhurst is on a roll, with four straight wins, including the big 93-88 OT victory over Carroll on Saturday. But can the Blue Jays keep it going on the road at Wheaton, who beat them by 12 earlier this month? The contrasting styles of play, with Elmhurst’s up-tempo pace and Wheaton’s slow-it-down, disciplined approach, will make for an intriguing matchup.
Otterbein at John Carroll | 6 p.m. ET | OAC Quarterfinal: JCU comes into this one with a 21.4% chance at an at-large bid when needed, preserving an outside shot at punching their ticket to the tournament even with a loss in the OAC postseason. But that loss can’t come tonight. This is a must-win for the Blue Streaks, and the fact that they already lost to Otterbein once (though it was on the road) adds to the storyline. JCU seeks its first OAC Tournament semifinal appearance since 2021-22, while Otterbein is looking to win a conference tournament game for the second time in the last three years.
UW-River Falls at UW-Whitewater | 8 p.m. ET | WIAC Quarterfinal: I don’t know how good of a matchup this is for UWRF, who struggled majorly on the boards in the last meeting between these two. The Falcons haven’t been the best at taking care of the ball or pulling down offensive rebounds, but they can shoot it well from the perimeter. And that’s where the upset potential comes in. If they can get 3s to fall, especially early, they’re going to have a chance. On the flip side, Whitewater keeps taking steps forward, and after beating UWRF by 20 just 10 days ago, the Warhawks will come in with plenty of confidence.
I am thinking at this time you are so busy should not vote for a top 25 even though it means absolutely nothing. I feel Notre Dame and UCLA womans teams would love your vote and Texas would not care for your theories. You don’t care if a team loses, that doesn’t mean anything so you leave them in the same spot? I hate to break it to you but if you lose you go down in the poll that is the point of the poll. To get a vote you should be open minded and realize this. I will give you credit ibeing one of the few people who care about d-3.
What is the exact order of your ballot for teams 6-10?