November 28, 2022: My Top 25 ballot...with context

Well, here we are. The first Top 25 ballot of the season comes out in just a few hours. Being a Top 25 voter (and I’m very appreciative to the D3hoops crew for giving me this opportunity), I did my best over the last several days to break down my ballot. It’s not perfect, and there are so many teams I considered, but came up with these 25. The best part of the season is still to come, and teams have only been playing games for about three weeks now. I did my best to give an accurate picture of how I’m seeing the best teams in D-III, and where they stand at this point. So here you go…

#1 Hope 

Hope entered the season at #1 and the Flying Dutch will stay there. At least for the time being. Because Hope showed no signs of a letdown in any of its first six contents, including battles against quality opponents in UW-Eau Claire and Illinois Wesleyan. If Brian Morehouse’s team is not a unanimous #1 this evening, I’ll be surprised.

#2 Transylvania

Watching Transylvania play, I was impressed by the ball movement and ability to create three-point shots through good passing. Transylvania could easily go undefeated this year, having already faced what is probably its toughest non-conference opponent in UT-Dallas in the season opener, a 57-43 win. Transylvania is an easy #2 for me. 

#3 NYU 

Thinking along those same lines, nothing has told me from watching NYU on film that the Violets should stay at #3. They’ve looked sharp in all five contests on both ends of the floor, particularly offensively, and though they haven’t played the strongest competition yet, NYU has won by margins worthy of keeping them in the #3 spot. 

#4: Trinity (TX)

We have some movement now. Trinity beat #18 Hardin-Simmons, who I consider to be a very good team, twice this past week, completing the rare double of winning at HSU, then winning at home, in games separated by only five days. They won by at least six in each of those, as Trinity seems to look better and better each game. The Tigers will only get better once Maggie Shipley returns to the floor, whenever that might be. 

#5 Christopher Newport

CNU has faced quality competition, though not a lot of it. The one notable non-conference win you could point to would be the 63-53 result over ETBU. But that game was played on the road early in the season, and the Captains certainly get some added points for that one. They’ve looked how I expected they would, like a Top 5-caliber team who will be awfully hard for anyone to stop this season. 

#6 UW-Whitewater

In truth, I was already planning to move Whitewater down a spot in order to move Trinity up, considering I graded Trinity’s wins over HSU as very strong, especially the road win in Abilene. But Whitewater falls to #6 in my ballot after losing by a single point to unranked Calvin on Saturday. However, the Warhawks also have wins over Illinois Wesleyan and Millikin and will be a WIAC contender. No need to overreact to Saturday’s loss. The defense has also been fairly solid, ranked eighth by Massey ratings. 

#7 Amherst

We had a discussion about this on Hoopsville the other day, with mixed feelings on Amherst. But with #7 Smith and #8 Trine both struggling somewhat, one certainly more than the other, I felt I had seen enough of Amherst to slide the Mammoths up to #7. Scranton was a close second in that conversation, but Amherst has a Top 25 win over #16 Springfield, which helps the resume. Defensively, the Mammoths look to be their usual selves, ranked #1 in that category by Massey. 

#8 Smith

Smith had two overtime games against unranked opponents in Maine Maritime and yesterday, Trinity (CT). While I believe both of those opponents mentioned, especially Trinity, will be in contention for tournament spots come late February, I didn’t see the Smith team that I was anticipating. The foul defensively quite a bit, which almost single-handedly kept Trinity in it yesterday, but are a strong shooting team that is especially good in the post. I’ll keep them at #8 for the time being until I get a more consistent string of performances from them. 

#9: Baldwin Wallace

The season-opening double overtime win over Trine instantly put #12 Baldwin Wallace into the Top 10 conversation for me. The Yellow Jackets took care of business in their last four, three of which were on the road. No win came by single digits, and BW is poised for a strong year in the OAC. 

#10: Scranton

Scranton didn’t play even close to the toughest competition in its first five games, but the Lady Royals won all five by convincing margins. The closest result came at Gwynedd Mercy, in a 70-56 win, as Scranton played its second game in 24 hours. 

#11: Tufts

Tufts doesn’t move up or down from its spot in the preseason poll on my ballot, though the Jumbos have been very good. I’ve watched them play at least three times, including yesterday against UNE. UNE was in it for the first three quarters, separated by a couple points, until a 17-3 run in the fourth made the victory much larger for Tufts. The win over Roger Williams adds to the SOS rating, as well. We’ll see where the other voters have Tufts…

#12: UW-Eau Claire

I’ve gotten a few messages about the Blugolds, who have a tremendous amount of experience, several of whom transferred in prior to either last season or this season. UWEC is right up there with Whitewater as a WIAC contender, and played Hope (at Hope) tough, despite falling 89-77. Besides that loss, UWEC has been terrific in my opinion, with an 11-point win over Wartburg, and though I don’t put much stock into non-D3 results, fell by just two in an early season contest at D-II Concordia-St. Paul. 

#13: Mary Hardin-Baylor

This is where the ballot got tough, between the numbers of 13-20. There are so many preseason ranked teams in this area who lost a few times within the first couple weeks, making it tough to figure out who should stay, and where those teams should go. UMHB, using its notable depth, came out of the gate with two wins over Emory and Lynchburg, both on the road. They started later than everybody else, and Emory gave the Crusaders a fight. I’ll need more time to get a good feel for where the Cru stand, but initially watching the guard play, and the post players Mark Morefield has brought in, UMHB is a comfortable mid-section Top 25 team for me. 

#14 Trine

The loss at Baldwin Wallace was not great for Trine, but understandable, considering it was the season opener, and on the road. But the recent loss at home to unranked Ohio Northern really hurts Trine’s resume. Still, they played both of those games competitively, keeping it close, and while I certainly haven’t seen anything that tells me they’re a Top 10 team right now, nothing says they won’t be once MIAA play gets going. 

#15 Springfield

Springfield’s lone loss came at Amherst, and by a mere four-point margin. The 14-point win over Williams on Nov. 22 was impressive, considering it marked Williams’ only loss of the season thus far. Springfield moves up one spot in my poll, though I’ll be keeping a close eye to see how they progress once NEWMAC play begins. 

#16 Ithaca

Ithaca was #20 in the preseason poll, but now has quality victories at home against Cortland (in overtime) and on the road against Catholic (67-65). The big test is tomorrow against undefeated Scranton, which would have been convenient to be played before we had to submit our ballots, rather than after. But still, Ithaca is undefeated, and ranked #25 by Massey. Overall, I’ve liked what I’ve seen so far. 

#17 Whitman

Had trouble figuring out who to put here, as Millikin (#14 in the preseason) has three losses and St. John Fisher (#17 in the preseason) has two. Whitman has one loss to NAIA power Lewis & Clark State. Besides that performance, Whitman has played every game on the road (some being neutral site matchups), and emerged with a 5-1 record. Led by Korin Baker and Sydney Abbott, the Blues are the clear NWC favorites. 

#18 Babson

Babson has played just three games, but has come away 3-0, facing opponents who currently have a win percentage of .500 or better. They’ve been good defensively, holding opponents to a shooting percent of 28.4%, and overall have come out of the gates strong. The 61-53 home win over Roger Williams is Babson’s most notable victory up to this point. 

#19 UW-Oshkosh

Oshkosh is 6-0 to start the year, having won against Bethel, Wartburg and DePauw, as well as Augustana (all neutral sites, except Augustana, which was played at Augustana as part of a tournament). Not a bad non-conference SOS in the first month. Though Brad Fischer has a younger squad than in years past, the development seems to be progressing game-to-game, and Oshkosh is certainly in the WIAC title conversation. 

#20: Rochester

Watching Rochester play, I’m surprised they didn’t end up with a Top 25 spot in the preseason. With consecutive wins over ranked opponents in Messiah and St. John Fisher, Rochester jumped onto the radar of plenty of voters. They’ll have their fair share of tests in a stacked UAA this season, but the quality of the wins over those two previously mentioned teams, along with a victory over UT-Dallas gives me confidence in their place amongst the country’s best at this point in the year. 

#21 Hardin-Simmons

HSU drops a bit after losing to Trinity twice in one week, especially at home, but the Cowgirls will soon regain their rhythm. After all, I have Trinity at #4. HSU did not have the greatest non-conference start to the season, with wins over Texas Lutheran, Schreiner and Austin College (all teams below .500), but I’ve seen enough to know that HSU has playmakers and will be a force once again in the ASC. ETBU should be a quality test to give us a better idea of where they are heading into next week’s poll. 

#22 Illinois Wesleyan

I’ve gone back and forth on this one, but IWU looked very good in the win over DePauw on Saturday, a quality non-conference victory for sure. They’re playing one of the tougher schedules in the country, and the 5-2 record is a bit misleading, considering both losses are to Top 10 teams in Hope and Whitewater. And both came on the road. IWU also beat Capital by 11, and WashU yesterday by 15. The Titans will be a force in the CCIW, and from my perspective, are the favorites. 

#23 UC-Santa Cruz

I said at the beginning of the year that UCSC was poised for a big run this season. With leading scorers Ashley Kowack and Kaylee Murphy back, along with a number of other key returners from last year’s team that went 16-4, UCSC has delivered, with a 7-0 run. Whitworth gave them all they could handle yesterday, as the Banana Slugs held on for a 58-57 win. Head coach Todd Kent is limited on his scheduling options, which may hurt UCSC’s ranking nationally early on. But watching them play multiple times, I continue to see them as a Top 25 team who will be impressive throughout this year.

#24 Calvin

Calvin was not a team I had at the forefront of my radar as we entered this year, but nonetheless, the Knights showed just how dangerous they can be, beating UW-Whitewater on the road on Saturday, 66-64. It was a narrow victory, but Calvin was the first to hand the Warhawks a loss in 2022-23, and will look to keep it going against Hope this week. Led by Gabby Timmer, the Knights are 5-0, also with wins over Colorado College and at Wisconsin Lutheran.

#25 Millikin

I debated for quite some time on whether to keep Millikin in or insert a team like Marietta, St. John Fisher or Messiah into my ballot. After all, a 3-3 start isn’t exactly eye-popping. But I want to give it more time, because Millikin has plenty of talent on the roster, Olivia Lett is an experienced head coach, and I believe they’ll turn things around here soon. Losses to UW-Stevens Point, UW-Whitewater and WashU all came on the road or at a neutral site, but still, I’m interested to see where Millikin goes from here. They certainly haven’t looked like what most thought they would be, but there are more tests still to come, with several big matchups early in CCIW play for Millikin. 

Just outside

26.Puget Sound

27. Marietta

28. UW-La Crosse

29. St. John Fisher

30. Messiah

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