5 sub-.500 teams from 2024-25 in position for a winning record in 2025-26

Last summer, I put out an article predicting the five sub-.500 teams from 2023-24 that I thought had the best chance to post a winning record in 2024-25. Year-to-year comparison in college basketball is always so interesting, because a variety of factors are at play in every case, and it’s not always the same factors. There are some cases where a team returning 90% of its production increases its win total by 10 and reaches the NCAA Tournament. Then there are others where a team with that same amount of returning production struggles to equal its record from the previous year. It’s hard to know exactly what you’re going to get from a particular team, but trends, roster predictions, known newcomers, and conference strength often allow for a well-informed starting point.

In last year’s picks, I went 3-2, winning big with Carnegie Mellon (11-14 in 2023-24, 21-6 w/NCAA Tournament appearance in 2024-25), in addition to correct picks of Williams (14-11) and Central (15-12). Mount Union nearly got it done, winning 6 of its last 10, but finished just shy of .500 at 12-13. Hartford went 10-16, though in my defense, it was not known at the time of writing that top rising sophomore Adrianna McCoy would be transferring back home to Southwestern, leaving a hole in Hartford’s backcourt.

But this is a new year, so I’ve got another chance at going 5-0. Below, I’ll break down five teams that I believe have favorable chances to post a winning record after going sub-.500 last winter. If you have a list of your own, be sure to put it down in the comments, and once we reach the late February, you can come back and see how you fared!

College of St. Scholastica

Ava Haus returns as one of the top guards in the MIAC, and will lead St. Scholastica into 2025-26 (Photo courtesy of College of St. Scholastica Athletics)

Nobody in the MIAC had a younger starting five than the group St. Scholastica put on the floor last season. Four of the Saints’ five were freshmen or sophomores, with junior forward Jackie Johnson being the only exception. And yet, they found ways to win as the season went on, notably getting high-caliber minutes from All-MIAC guard Ava Haus, who was on the floor for 30.1 minutes/game and averaged a team-high 13.8 points/game in her very first season on a college roster. When you’re top two scorers are first-year players, it’s usually a good sign.

CSS ended up just one win shy of going above .500 with a 12-13 mark, and their 9-9 record against the MIAC was the Saints’ best in six seasons. This might be low-hanging fruit, but I honestly think CSS has the best chance of any of the sub-.500 teams from 2024-25 to take a big step forward in the season to come. They are, after all, expected to bring back everyone from last year’s rotation (including size in the post with 6’1 forward Kloey Lind and 5’11 guard/forward Hope Carlson) and will play a challenging, but balanced non-conference slate that includes Cal Lutheran and UW-Eau Claire. The MIAC is always tough, but with Gustavus, Concordia, and Bethel each graduating multiple starters, the door is open for a dark horse like CSS to surge into the conference title discussion.

When you consider that the Saints went 1-23 in 2022-23, it’s clear how far the program has come in only a few years, and putting up a winning record in 2025-26 would be another significant step in their steady rise. The last time CSS finished above .500 overall? 2017-18. The Saints should end that drought this winter.

Keene State

New Hampshire native Brynn Rautiola leads Keene State into 2025-26. The junior guard was a First Team All-LEC honoree last season (Photo courtesy of Keene State Athletics)

Yet another case of a team that finished 2024-25 just below the .500 mark, Keene State still made notable strides by winning its first Little East Conference tournament game since 2016-17, when the Owls, the fifth seed, took down No. 4 seed Eastern Connecticut State in the quarterfinal round. That is part of what gives me so much optimism when it comes to Keene State in 2025-26, as their performance throughout conference play (which included two contenders for NCAA Tournament bids in UMass Dartmouth and Rhode Island College) was their best in quite a while, in addition to the postseason win. The Owls went 8-8 in the LEC, and 13-14 overall, rebounding nicely from an 0-4 start that included two single-digit losses.

But the big upside with Keene State right now is the returning production the Owls are anticipated to have. All-LEC First Teamer Brynn Rautiola averaged an impressive 18.8 PPG and ranked eighth in the league in steals/game (2.0) as a sophomore last season, so her potential seems large heading into the final two years of her college career. In her first two seasons in Keene, the former New Hampshire state champion has started all 50 games she has played in, and averaged 34.6 min/game through that span. You won’t find too many rising juniors with that type of in-game experience, and with UMass Dartmouth and Rhode Island College graduating so many standouts after last year, Rautiola is likely in the early conversation for LEC Player of the Year candidates.

In total, four of Keene State’s five starters from 2024-25 are expected to return, which is always a good sign, especially when there was clear progress from the same group throughout the prior season. It has actually been a little while since Keene State finished a season with a winning record. 2016-17 was the last instance of an overall record better than .500, and remains one of the best campaigns in program history with a 21-8 record, an LEC championship, and an NCAA Tournament appearance.

Chapman

Sophomore PG Kira Watanabe will be key in helping Chapman get above the .500 mark in 2025-26 (Photo courtesy of Chapman Athletics)

In a somewhat interesting case, Chapman finished below .500 overall, at 12-14, but decently above .500 against SCIAC competition, at 9-7. In fact, it marked the Panthers’ most wins in conference play since 2021-22. This is a program that deserves some attention heading into a wide-open SCIAC race in 2025-26. A significant contributor the non-conference losses for Carol Jue’s squad (they went 3-7 outside the SCIAC) was the level of opponent on that slate. In the first two weekends alone, Chapman played Transylvania (who went 22-6, won the HCAC Tournament, and nearly upset Trine in the first round of the NCAAs), UT-Dallas (who went 18-6 as they transition to D2), and Linfield (went 19-7, finished third in NWC). Not to mention they also got eventual NJAC regular season champ TCNJ at home in mid-December, jumping out to a 23-13 lead before TCNJ reeled them back in and won, 78-61.

All that being said, Chapman looks ready to not just get above .500 in the coming season, but make some noise in Region 10 as a SCIAC title contender. Four programs in the league return at least 87% of last year’s production, but Chapman is the only one expected to bring back everyone, highlighted by First Team All-SCIAC forward Layla Woods. Kira Watanabe showed plenty of promise as the Panthers’ primary ballhandler last season, dishing out 98 assists as a true freshman, while ranking third in the league in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.7).

Over the years, it’s seemed more and more apparent to me that if there is one position with the most potential to make or break a season, it’s point guard. The most consistent teams have a reliable playmaker directing the offense, and in most cases of a fast-rising squad, you’ll find a high IQ guard handling the ball in the backcourt. So needless to say, having Watanabe back on the floor gives me a lot of confidence in Chapman’s potential, considering the talent and poise she displayed in only her first season of college basketball last winter.

Seven players averaged over 20 min/game in 2024-25, and to get all seven back should be a game-changer. You never quite know what will happen in the SCIAC year-to-year, but if Chapman carries over some of the momentum built up through the second half of last season, the Panthers should be, at the very least, above .500 for the third time since 2021.

Austin College

Big things could be in store for Brooklyn Matthews and Austin College in 2025-26 (Photo courtesy of Austin College Athletics)

To get above .500, the ‘Roos would need at least four more wins in 2025-26 compared to their 9-15 record a season ago. That’s a bit of a bigger jump than Keene State, Chapman, and St. Scholastica will need to make to reach the same objective, but there’s good reason to think Austin is capable of it.

We already know this is a group anticipated to have everyone from last year’s main rotation back, including 6’2 forward Brooklyn Matthews, a rising senior who averaged 9.2 PPG and 7.6 RPG a year ago. The backcourt is solid as well, with leading scorer Lexi Martin (11.3 PPG in 24-25) and senior Grace Moothart bringing plenty of game experience and offensive potential into head coach Olivia Hunt’s first season. While I previously reported that Centenary’s Shyanne Phillips, the 2025 SCAC Freshman of the Year, was committed to Austin, she has since decommitted and will instead play at D2 Alabama-Huntsville. It puts a slight dent into some of my high expectations for the ‘Roos this season, but regardless, with more of an up-tempo style and such a strong returning presence, the door is open for Austin to make a jump.

There’s also the dynamic of the schedule involved in something like this, and in this case, the SCAC figures to be a bit more wide open than it has been in recent years. Trinity, a longtime fixture in the SCAC title conversation, is now in the SAA, and NCAA Tournament teams Colorado College and McMurry both graduated major contributors. How much will this help a team like Austin? Only time will tell, but it definitely gives opportunity for the ‘Roos to put themselves in the mix with a group that heads into the fall with some untapped potential.

Augustana

Cali Papez (#21) will be a veteran leader for a relatively young, but experienced Augustana squad this coming season (Photo courtesy of Augustana Athletics)

We expected last season to be a rebuilding year in Rock Island, and for the most part, that’s what it was. The Vikings, facing a difficult CCIW slate, along with a handful of tough non-conference matchups against UW-Oshkosh and Coe, went 10-15 and 6-10 in the CCIW. But within that trying season, they showed some promise, especially as the program’s young players settled in and gained confidence. It was visible at points, including in Augustana’s 58-55 win at Wheaton in February; a battle that saw the Vikings go up big in the early goings and Wheaton answer by cutting the deficit to two with 1:56 left, before Augustana reset, scored on the next possession, and re-established control.

Amongst those young standouts through last season was true freshman Audrey Erickson, who averaged 24.3 min/game and 9.4 PPG, ending up second on the team in both assists and points. Part of the future of this Augustana program, Erickson’s rapid development last winter is a good sign for what could lay ahead, as the 5’8 guard went from tallying just three points in the season opener to putting up six double-digit scoring performances in Augustana’s final seven contests. Joining her in the backcourt this winter will be Kadence Tatum, a senior point guard who ranked fifth in the CCIW in assists/game last year (3.5) and Paige Melton, who shot 46.1% and was one of only two Vikings to average double figures in scoring (10.3 PPG).

The other in double figures was forward Cali Papez, a Second Team All-CCIW honoree who is set for her senior year. Papez’s presence gives the Vikings an interior force to complement the trio in the backcourt, and sets Augustana up well to take a step towards getting back into the CCIW title conversation. While they had a huge year in 2022-23, going 19-9, they’ve been above .500 only once since 2020. They’ll need to improve their win total by at least three to get back to that in 2025-26, but with a more cohesive, unified rotation in place this time around, that sort of improvement is entirely possible for Mark Beinborn’s team.

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