5 sub-.500 teams from 2023-24 with the best chance to post a winning season in 2024-25
When looking towards a new season, there’s always the teams leading the pack. Those who had deep NCAA Tournament runs the previous year and bring back an All-American or two. Those who have a track record of playing for conference titles and national championships. There’s a bit more certainty and past experience to draw on with these programs, which often helps when it comes to preseason rankings and predictions. At the same time, I always enjoy finding the teams that may not be in that Top 25 conversation at this point, and might be flying under the radar for one reason or another.
One group of teams that fall into this category are those who finished the previous season below .500. In some cases, a program might graduate several key seniors and find itself in a rebuilding season the follow year, yielding a sub-.500 record. In others, perhaps due to an especially tough conference, a series of coaching changes, or just the nature of basketball, a program may have recorded a handful of losing seasons in recent history.
Either way, each new season presents an opportunity for improvement, and a chance to avenge the result of the previous year. So with some insight from Scott Peterson’s analytics, as well as my own research, here’s a look at five teams that finished below .500 overall in 2023-24 that seem to have the best chance to post a winning season in 2024-25.
Carnegie Mellon: CMU made a splash this offseason by hiring Kathy McConnell-Miller, whose strong pedigree includes high school and Division I head coaching experience, as well as a stint as an assistant in the WNBA. While it takes time for a new coach to fully make a program their own, I think she is in a good spot with the squad she will inherit in Pittsburgh this season. CMU went 11-14 last year and struggled to a 3-11 finish in the UAA, with a 1-11 record over the final 12 games of conference play. But here’s why this season could be different. The Tartans were young last season, with three sophomores and two freshmen averaging over 20 minutes/game. And all of those players are back…nearly the entire roster is. 96.7% of the 2023-24 roster is set to return, and that consistency should help in giving CMU momentum out of the gate. Additionally, CMU secured an impact transfer in Christopher Newport’s Nicole Timko, a 5’10 guard who played in 27 games for the Captains last year (6.6 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 11.1 minutes/game). Timko has the talent level and necessary experience to help CMU take that next step as a program. I know the UAA is deep, and likely includes at least three Top 25 teams heading into 2024-25. But success is measured in different ways, and the fight for fourth-place in the league should be wide-open. The last time CMU finished fourth in the UAA was 2016-17, went the Tartans went 21-7 overall (7-7 UAA). Since then, it’s been a challenge for CMU to stay in the top half of the league standings, last finishing above .500 against UAA opponents in 2015-16. But things seem to be looking up for the Tartans right now, and I’m going to go ahead and predict we see a season with an overall record above .500 for CMU in 2024-25. It’d be just the second time CMU has accomplished that in the last seven years.
Williams: The NESCAC is such a tough league, and Williams, despite some promising performances early in 2023-24, struggled to the finish line. The 2-8 NESCAC record put up by the Ephs certainly wasn’t indicative of the way they competed throughout last year, especially considering their average scoring margin was -0.8 (meaning their opponents averaged less than one point more). Unfortunately, Williams went 3-9 in games decided by single digits, which contributed to the 10-14 overall record. But that’s one area in which Williams’ returning production (100% of last year’s roster returns) should come into play. Having the experience of playing in those types of games will hopefully put the Ephs in a better position to handle it moving forwards. With so many NESCAC games being of that nature, it’s important that they find a way to post a better success rate in those types of contests. As far as the team itself goes, Arianna Gerig was the centerpiece of the offense in 2023-24, averaging 35.1 minutes/game and 21.2 PPG. She also dished out 93 assists (3.87 APG), led the team in rebounds, with 8.4/game, and had a team-best 59 steals. To illustrate just how vital she will be to Williams this season, Gerig tallied 509 points in 2023-24. Williams’ next highest scorer? 178. Having Gerig back is huge. Also look for Mairi Smith to make a bigger impact, as the 6’2 forward led the team with 36 blocks as a First-Year last season. It’d be ideal if Williams could open up the scoring a bit more, to alleviate the pressure on Gerig and potentially open up more offensive opportunities late in games when Gerig is double-teamed, as she often was last season. There’s lots of potential here for Williams. If everything aligns, this is a squad that we should see get back to 2022-23 form, when the Ephs went 18-8.
Central: The A-R-C was incredibly challenging across the board last season, with quite a bit of parity shown, at times, amongst the top six or seven teams. Central was one of those teams, and it seems there is room for them to build on last year’s 11-14 record. The league won’t be any easier, but Central should have all five starters back, a key element in a team’s potential for success. That includes leading scorer Abby Johnson, a solid 3-point shooter who averaged 13.2 PPG last season. Look for Emily Naughton to be another returning starter that takes a step forward, as she enters her sophomore year after dishing out a team-high 63 assists in her first collegiate season. I also really liked the way Central attacked the boards throughout last year, and that should be a strength for the Dutch again, after they ranked second in the A-R-C in combined rebounds (41.2/game) and third in rebounding margin (5.3). The non-conference schedule is set up well, and has a nice mix of opponents leading into A-R-C play, including a couple of WIAC duels against UW-Eau Claire, UW-Oshkosh, and UW-Platteville. It’s been three years since Central finished above .500, but there’s every reason to believe that skid will end this coming season.
Mount Union: From 2017-2021, Mount Union posted four consecutive winning seasons, but in each of the three years that have followed, the Purple Raiders have finished at .417 or below. Last year’s seven wins in OAC play were the most for the program since the 2020-21 season. But I like the way this year’s team is shaping up, with all five starters expected to return, including two—Dae Dae Nash and Mckayla Dunkle—who will be seniors. Mount Union went 10-16 overall in 2023-24, but there were a few positives to be taken away from that from a long-term perspective. Freshman forward Elizabeth Mason really took charge as the season progressed, and finished as the team’s top scorer, at 12.7 PPG. She finished the season with six consecutive double-digit scoring performances, including 26 points in Mount’s first win over John Carroll since 2018. Mason rightfully earned OAC Freshman of the Year honors and is definitely a name to look out for in the OAC in the years to come. Additionally, it seemed the Purple Raiders already had a good sense of chemistry on the floor last season, leading the OAC in assists (13.7/game), which should be a good sign for 2024-25 in the case that all five starters return. Finding quality depth off the bench was a bit of a challenge last season, so that’s something they’ll hopefully improve on. If that happens, I really think Mount could be a team that surprises in the OAC.
Hartford: With head coach Polly Thomasson entering her second year leading the Hawks, Hartford seems poised for a breakout season. The transition from D-I to D-III has been tough for Hartford athletics as a whole, but Thomasson knows how to build a D-III power from scratch, having previously done so at UT-Dallas. Hartford went 11-14 last season with one of the youngest starting fives in all of Division III. 7 players started 13 games or more for the Hawks in 2023-24. All were freshmen. That included 6’2 center Ava Naszimento transferred in halfway through last season, after beginning her career at D-I Central Connecticut State. In 17 games, she put up 7.5 PPG and 7.7 RPG, impressive numbers considering the challenges of being a mid-season transfer. Imagine how much improvement we could see from Naszimento this season, considering she’ll be able to go through the entire preseason with Hartford. Though Hartford loses leading scorer Adrianna McCoy, look for Ella Marchesani to step up as a sophomore. She averaged 10.7 PPG last season and shot 34.5% from 3-point range. As a team, the Hawks were fairly consistent defensively, with the second-best turnover margin in the CCC (1.84) and the fourth-fewest points allowed per game (60.5 PPG) in the league. 2024-25 will be the first year in which Hartford is actually eligible to compete for the Conference of New England (CONE) title and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Hawks in the mix atop the league standings once it’s all said and done.
Coaching Changes
Hirings
Dean → With Eastern Nazarene College’s recent closure, Dean went out and hired Megan Dixon, who was promoted to head coach at ENC in May. She had an exceptional playing career at UMass Boston, in which she helped the Beacons’ to their first-ever Little East Conference championship in 2018, and spent last season on staff at ENC as an assistant coach. There is definitely some rebuilding to be done at Dean, as the program comes off a 2-22 season in 2023-24.
Crown → David Pederson was announced as the Polar Bears’ next head coach after serving as the associate head coach at fellow UMAC institution Northwestern St. Paul last season. He knows the league well, which should help. Pederson began his coaching career at Dubuque, working with the men’s program there, before joining the men’s coaching staff at Northwestern St. Paul.
Departures
Marymount → After an exceptional run over three seasons, Margaret White has taken a new position as the Potomac Region Director of the Special Olympics and will step down from her role leading the Saints. She will be tough to replace, having led Marymount to a 61-19 overall record with an even more impressive 32-2 mark in conference play. The Saints won the AEC title in each of the last two seasons, and set or tied seven program records since White took over in 2021.
Western Connecticut State → Kimberly Rybczyk, a WestConn alum who guided the program for the last 22 years, has coached the final game of her career. She announced Thursday that she is retiring, having posted a 413-321 overall record in head coaching stops at RPI, Southwestern, and WestConn. An All-American at point guard for WestConn during her playing days, Rybczyk took over the program in 2002, and led the Wolves to a pair of ECAC Tournament titles as well as three NCAA Tournament appearances.
Muskingum → Kelly Broderick has taken the head coaching job at D2 D’Youville University after two seasons leading the Muskies. She led Muskingum to its most wins since 2010-11 in this past season, as the team went 11-14 overall. This was Broderick’s second D3 heading coaching position, as she previously led Medaille College for four seasons.
Schedule Spotlight: MIT
(Each week, I plan to do a couple of these “schedule spotlights”, highlighting strong schedules from around the country as we look towards the 2024-25 season)
Link to MIT’s 2024-25 schedule
MIT will be senior-laden in 2024-25 after going 19-8 in 2023-24, and there is a quite a bit of upside for this team, especially since the NEWMAC should be fairly competitive at the top, with Smith, Babson, and Springfield also in serious contention.
The first thing I notice is the season opener at the Scholar’s Classic, hosted by NYU. We’ll get to see the Engineers battle the reigning national champs on Nov. 8, followed by a matchup against Swarthmore, who should have four starters back, on Nov. 9. Interestingly, this begins a stretch of seven straight games away from home (either true road games or neutral site matchups), with MIT’s home opener not coming until Dec. 5 against Tufts. In that span, the Engineers will play at Bridgewater State (MASCAC Tournament runner-up in 2023-24), at Emmanuel (11-3 in GNAC last year), at the Rhode Island College Tournament (opponents currently TBD), and at Brandeis. That’s a tough way to open a season, with plenty of quality opponents out of the gate. I always enjoy seeing that.
The home duel vs Tufts will be interesting, but I really like the home matchup five days later against NEWMAC foe Smith. The national runner-up last season, Smith graduated some significant talent and should have at least three new starters this year. It’ll be a good look at where both Smith and MIT are at through the first four weeks of the season, though it won’t count towards the conference standings. This is technically a non-conference matchup, with the two opponents meeting in NEWMAC play on Feb. 15 at Smith.
There’s a 20-day break before MIT returns to the court on Dec. 30, facing Endicott at home. I really like the Jan. 7 matchup at Middlebury. This could be a big-time game depending on how the first two months of the season go for those two teams. Led by Alexa Mustafaj and Augusta Dixon, Middlebury could really challenge for the NESCAC title this season, and MIT should be right there in the NEWMAC championship race. The timing of the game should only raise the stakes, considering both NEWMAC and NESCAC play begin the following week.
And lastly, I’ll point out that the second-to-last week of the regular season sees MIT battle through its toughest stretch of NEWMAC play. I already mentioned the Feb. 15 matchup at Smith, but three days prior to that, the Engineers will play on the road at Babson. The Beavers will have a strong group, with five returning starters in addition to Occidental transfer Toni Thompson, who averaged 24.5 PPG last year. Those two contests could very possibly make or break MIT’s quest for its first-ever NEWMAC regular season title.
Thanks for reading! Hope you’ve had a great start to your week! And remember to subscribe (if you haven’t already) for year-round D3 women’s basketball coverage and content.