What stood out on Wednesday: River Falls with another Top 25 home win, Marietta, Allegheny pull off conference upsets
Welcome back to an afternoon edition of The Scoop on D3 Women’s Hoops, with a quick review and analysis of yesterday’s action across the country. It’s hard to believe how close we are to conference tournament time, and as I mention below, a few notable programs have already clinched their conference’s regular season titles. It’s time to lock in, get ready for the postseason, and enjoy all that the regular season still has to offer.
In case you missed it, Scott Peterson of d3data.weebly.com did an excellent livestream on (primarily) NPI and mock bracketing on Tuesday night, so be sure to check that out. For anyone curious or unsure about what the “minimum wins threshold” actually means, Scott explains that very well with an actual example using a current team’s NPI resume!
While you’re at it, be sure to mark your calendars for March 1, 2, and 3. That Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, Scott and I plan to be live on YouTube, breaking down the tournament picture on Saturday and Sunday and reacting to the bracket reveal on Monday. We hope you’ll tune in!
Now for some thoughts on yesterday’s games…
Lead Story: UW-River Falls takes down yet another Top 25 foe
For the second time in roughly three weeks, Don Page Arena proved to be an unwelcome environment for a perennial WIAC title contender. First it was UW-Oshkosh who had its hopes of an undefeated season erased in a stunning 64-59 loss to River Falls on Jan. 25. Then last night, No. 17 UW-Stout, riding the wave of momentum after dominating nationally-ranked UW-Whitewater by 27 on Saturday, hit a wall and came up short. It wasn’t a result many saw coming (including myself, who had Stout #8 in my Top 25 ballot for D3hoops on Monday), but in the WIAC, it also didn’t come as a complete shock. Stout had already struggled in Wednesday night games at multiple points this season—look at the narrow escape against UW-Eau Claire on Jan. 22 or the OT loss to UW-La Crosse a week later, for example. River Falls, having already beaten Oshkosh, was more than capable of winning a game in which Stout turned it over 20 times and shot just 4-of-19 from 3.
The 3-point shooting was a bit of a surprise, considering it came just four days after Stout torched the nets against Whitewater, going 10-of-19. Without an outside presence, it made driving to the lane for those trademark dribble-drive layups and floaters all the more difficult as the game went on, and even more so in the final minute, when Stout slipped behind by multiple possessions. But more concerning, from a season-long trends perspective, is yet another 20-turnover performance. Over their last five games, the Blue Devils have turned it over 20+ times in four instances, a fairly sharp rise after going eight consecutive games with fewer than 16. Are WIAC defenses just getting better? It’s possible. Just the same, that’s a concerning aspect of this loss. You can absolutely point to River Falls ending up with 8 fewer personal fouls (though a few came late when Stout was fouling to regain possession quickly) or the fact that Stout had just 9 assists (their lowest total since Jan. 4…11 games ago) are key pieces in the equation of the loss. But when you turn it over 20 times, that’s essentially 20 opportunities at a shot you didn’t get. It’s hard to make up for that, even with a few more calls going your way, an offensive rebound here or there, or an assist total closer to the season average. Cleaning that up will no doubt be important for Stout moving forwards, as the postseason rapidly approaches and you reach a point where you can’t outshoot everyone on any given night.
Now for some credit to River Falls. This wasn’t really a fluke. The Falcons seem to have a way of putting together a quick run out of the gate, almost stopping their opponent in its tracks for even a minute or two. By the time you look up at the scoreboard, UWRF both has a decent lead and most of the momentum inside the gym. By opening 5-of-9 from 3, UWRF did just that, taking an early 18-11 lead. Stout played catch up for most of the game, only leading briefly at the end of the third. And here’s the other thing with UWRF: when they get to the FT line, they’re going to convert way more often than not. Despite starting the season a little shaky at the line, the Falcons are now third in FT percentage in WIAC games (73.7%) and have shot above 77% in 5 of their last 7. Going 22-of-28, including 16-of-18 in the fourth quarter, was key in eliminating Stout’s attempts at a comeback over the final 15 minutes.
From an NCAA Tournament perspective, Stout is fine. They’re still getting an at-large bid 100% of the time when they need it. Nothing changed from that standpoint. And for UWRF, they’re now just 1 game outside of third-place in the WIAC, with UW-Whitewater (currently 3rd) coming to River Falls on Saturday. That’ll be one worth tuning into!
5 more things that caught my attention
Watch out for Allegheny come PAC Tournament time: We now know the PAC will be a one-bid league, after Allegheny pulled off a huge upset on the road last night, taking down Washington & Jefferson, 85-80. W&J’s at-large odds went from 32.2% to 0.2% with the loss, which now places even more emphasis on PAC Tournament. And if you’re looking for an upset pick here in a couple weeks, the Gators might be the one to put your money on. They’ve now beaten both of the PAC’s top two—W&J and Chatham—in true road games. That’s impressive. They’re now 14-3 in the PAC with one of the most dynamic offenses in the league.
Baldwin Wallace, Wartburg lock up league titles, extend notable streaks: Both the Yellow Jackets and Knights extended streaks last night, and each is worthy of some mention here. In a back-and-forth battle with John Carroll, BW won its ninth game by single digits, wrapping up the OAC title in a 66-61 win. For those counting at home, that’s now 21 consecutive wins, the third-most in D3 WBB. Wartburg’s A-R-C regular season title streak is now up to 3, marking the second three-peat in program history. And speaking of streaks, the Knights’ 64-55 win over Dubuque last night marked their 30th consecutive A-R-C victory.
Marietta wins big on the road: In yet another noteworthy road win last night, Marietta went to Capital, the OAC’s second-place team, and stunned the Comets in a 71-58 win. It took Capital’s at-large chances down to 29.1% while running Marietta’s win streak to 3, as the Pioneers held Capital to a mere 8 points in the paint and won the rebounding battle by +15. The OAC’s chances of being a one-bid league increased by a little bit last night.
Montclair State hits 20-win mark in wild 3OT contest: Montclair State is now 20-3 overall and tied with TCNJ for first place in the NJAC standings. Such is the product of a game I didn’t catch until late, but took three overtimes to determine a winner. Montclair led NJCU by 15 entering the 4th quarter before a 19-4 run from the Gothic Knights, capped by Na’Tori Postell’s layup in the final second of regulation, forced OT. NJCU missed a game-winner at the end of the first OT and Montclair missed a go-ahead free throw with 1 second left in 2OT, before Montclair put it away with a 13-4 run in the third OT. 88-79 was the final. “We gave everything we had and learned how deep we could dig. Almost a shame anyone had to lose,” Montclair head coach Karin Harvey said in Montclair’s postgame recap.
Transylvania back on top in the HCAC: If you followed this newsletter early in the year, one of the storylines that stood out was how much Transylvania lost from its Final Four team, both with head coach Juli Fulks (who took the HC job at Marshall) and the bulk of its main rotation. With Berea joining the HCAC, Mt. St. Joseph looking stronger, and Hanover bringing back some talent, it seemed Transy’s quest for a four-peat in the HCAC (regular-season wise) might be denied. But credit to first-year head coach Hannah Varel. Aside from an upset at Manchester back in December, Transy has been stellar in the HCAC, going 14-1, and wrapped up the league’s regular season title yet again last night. This Transy team has its flaws, but to take a young and inexperienced group and win in a competitive title race says a lot. They’ve continued to mesh, stay tough on defense, and will be the favorite in the HCAC Tournament here in two weeks.
Biggest NPI risers from Wednesday night (Top 3)
Johnson & Wales (RI) —> 14 spots to #44
DePauw —> 12 spots to #59
Transylvania —> 11 spots to #51
Biggest NPI drops from Wednesday night (Top 3)
Capital —> -16 spots to #57
Washington & Jefferson —> -14 spots to #56
UW-Stout —> -4 spots to #18
**For more up-to-date NPI data/updates/analysis, follow Scott Peterson on X/Twitter at @scott_peterson4 or on d3data.weebly.com**
**You can also find the NPI rankings (updated each morning) on D3Datacast.com. They’ve been calculating and tracking NPI all season and are spot-on with their data. This allows you to see exactly where your team stands at the present moment within the national NPI picture**