Week 8 Top 25 Ballot Breakdown
It’s time for another Top 25 ballot breakdown! I submitted my Week 8 Top 25 ballot for D3hoops.com yesterday and last night, the latest poll was released, led by NYU at #1, Transylvania at #2, and Rhode Island College at #3. This is a look at how I voted in the poll, my thoughts on each team, and some of my reasoning for their placement within the ballot.
To quickly summarize the complete poll itself:
Biggest Risers: Carroll (24 → 20), DeSales (20 → 17)
Biggest Drops: UW-Oshkosh (18 → 23), Mary Hardin-Baylor (14 → 18), Smith (17 → 21),
Into the Poll: Gettysburg, #25
Out of the Poll: Whitman (previously #22)
Receiving Votes: Mass-Dartmouth 21; Vassar 20; St. John Fisher 17; Webster 14; Chicago 13; Baldwin Wallace 12; SUNY New Paltz 12; Washington and Jefferson 11; Amherst 9; Concordia-Moorhead 8; Willamette 6; DePauw 5; Whitman 3; Ithaca 2
Teams I had in my ballot that were unranked: Willamette
View the complete poll here on D3hoops.com.
Ballot Breakdown
#1 NYU (18-0): The Violets’ Top 10 win over Emory on Sunday solidified their place atop the poll, and for the ninth straight ballot (including the preseason poll) NYU has been my #1. I truly don’t know who else in the country has the amount of depth and talent concentrated on one roster that NYU currently has.
#2 Rhode Island College (20-0): The Anchorwomen move up one spot in my ballot this week after wins over Southern Maine and UMass Boston. They’ve now hit the 20-win mark, and are rolling through the LEC portion of the schedule, gaining momentum as the NCAA Tournament nears. Tomorrow’s game at UMass-Dartmouth will be huge, though, as UMD might be the only other team in the LEC with the strength to beat RIC over four quarters.
#3 UW-Whitewater (18-1): After the loss to UW-La Crosse, UW-Whitewater falls back one spot, but you can’t place too much emphasis on one loss in the WIAC. While I think the CCIW may have more potential on a national tournament stage this season, the parity we’ve come to expect from the WIAC is there once again this season. Bottom line: one game isn’t going to change my thoughts on UW-Whitewater. They are skilled, and with Katie Hildebrandt, have two All-Region-type post players, making them a difficult matchup. And the resume, which includes wins over Carroll and Illinois Wesleyan, is extremely strong.
#4 Transylvania (19-0): The Pioneers stay at #4 this week in my ballot and took down Mount St. Joseph and Rose-Hulman, two quality HCAC teams, this past week. And they did it by an average margin of 40 points. Transylvania certainly is playing at a high-level, and is winning in dominant fashion right now. I totally understand the lack of quality results being a concern, but I also think Transylvania has proven it belongs amongst the nation’s best based on past years even without playing in an extremely strong league.
#5 Gustavus Adolphus (16-1): Gustavus stays at #5 in my ballot, having beaten St. Olaf on the road and St. Kate’s at home in a pair of MIAC victories last week. The Gusties are rolling and are very much in-line to host in the opening weekend of the national tournament. Rachel Kawiecki is one of the more versatile players I’ve seen in Region 9 this season, and is leading this team offensively as a junior forward. Against St. Kate’s, Kawiecki scored 14 points, had five assists, four steals, and three rebounds as Gustavus crossed the century mark.
#6 Christopher Newport (20-1): What else can you say? Like RIC, the Captains have hit the 20-win mark and are doing what they do, heading into a key game against Mary Washington tomorrow. Since the turn of the new year, CNU has rolled through its schedule, and should be in a good position come tournament-time. I feel confident in keeping CNU at #6, as the Captains have proven to be consistently successful. Even with a lack of high-quality matchups over the second half of the regular season, I have seen the improvement and it seems they are building the momentum for another strong tournament performance.
#7 Hope (19-1): Even with a less-experienced team, Hope finds itself entering February with a 19-1 record and a Top 10 ranking. Keeping Hope at #7 is due to a couple of things, including the recent losses by Millikin and Illinois Wesleyan in addition to Hope’s victories against both Milllikin and IWU. Those wins still stick out, especially since both IWU and Millikin played well against Hope and were at full strength. It just adds a little bit of value to the result for Hope, and so far, the Flying Dutch have proven those victories were no fluke.
#8 Millikin (16-4): This is a really tough one the more you look at it. I kept Millikin at #8 simply because of the head-to-head win over Illinois Wesleyan this past week. The Big Blue pulled away in the second half against IWU and beat the Titans for the second straight week. What complicates that is the fact that Millikin turned around and lost to Carroll, also at home. And IWU swept Carroll in its season series, and did so without Ava Bardic the first time around. So it begs the question, should IWU be ahead of Millikin? They have identical records, and I think the margin between the two is certainly much thinner than what we saw in Decatur last Wednesday. But I’m giving Millikin the edge for now, considering the head-to-head season sweep of IWU, though I definitely understand the argument for IWU ahead with the Carroll vs IWU and Carroll vs Millikin results.
#9: Bowdoin (19-1): Bowdoin moves up one spot for me as the Polar Bears earned a win at Emmanuel and followed that up with a NESCAC victory over Connecticut College. At 19-1, and 6-0 in the NESCAC, Bowdoin is firing on all cylinders with just four regular season games left on the slate. That includes a huge showdown at Bates this coming Friday in what might be the “Game of the Day” in D3 women’s hoops. Overall, Bowdoin’s resume seems to only get more impressive as the season goes on. There are no extremely high-profile wins, but a solid number of Massey Top 50 and Top 100 victories, which should put Bowdoin No. 1 in Region 1.
#10 Illinois Wesleyan (16-4): The Titans are right there with Millikin and Bowdoin, but after Wednesday’s loss, I opted to flip Bowdoin and IWU. At this point, I think it’s clear the CCIW is the strongest conference in the country, at least when we’re talking Top 3. Millikin, IWU, and Carroll should all get into the tournament comfortably, and the bracketing with those three will indeed be interesting. With Lauren Huber back at full strength, IWU is healthy and played very well in an 85-59 win over Augustana on Sunday. Wheaton is up next for the Titans.
#11 Catholic (19-0): 19-0 now, Catholic is rising in my ballot even with its lack of top-quality results. I’ve seen enough to know the Cardinals are no fluke and their victories over Scranton and Elizabethtown are especially notable. Catholic’s addition of Holy Cross transfer Kerry Flaherty has been huge to the success, and this is a team that seems to play especially well in the second half, and in crunch time. You like to see that out of a squad the talent level to make a tournament run.
#12 Johns Hopkins (18-1): The Centennial Conference is controlled at the top by JHU, who just seems to keep getting better. The Blue Jays had a three-win week with victories over Haverford, McDaniel, and Ursinus in league play, remaining undefeated in the conference schedule. JHU’s only loss? NYU. The Blue Jays currently hold a 17-game winning streak. Rodney Rogan is definitely a Coach of the Year candidate with the job he has done in his first-year with that program.
#13 Emory (15-3): I didn’t knock the Eagles too much for the road loss at NYU, and they split the UAA road weekend, winning at Brandeis on Friday. Emory is the only other legitimate NCAA Tournament contender out of the UAA, which feels weird to say, but is accurate based on the respective win percentages of the other programs in the league. The Eagles get another shot at NYU on Sunday, this time in Atlanta. Five of their final seven regular season games are at home.
#14 Wartburg (18-2): The Knights are 18-2, and while they were in the “Dubious” discussion a few weeks ago on Hoopsville, I don’t think they belong in that category any more. The losses to WashU and Whitman are tough to explain, but besides that, Wartburg is 11-0 in the ARC. The win over Coe on Jan. 17 was notable, and this past week featured wins at Luther and Simpson. A home duel with Loras awaits on Wednesday.
#15 Carroll (15-4) : Carroll’s lone game of the week was a massive win that propelled the Pioneers from #20 to #15 in my ballot. They went on the road and beat Millikin, 80-75, snapping Millikin’s 21-game home winning streak in the process. It also gave Carroll a season sweep of the Big Blue as previously mentioned, and the Pioneers, led by Olivia Rangel, are going to be a tough out in the NCAA Tournament. They currently shoot 47.9% from the field and run an efficient offensive attack.
#16 UW-Oshkosh (15-4): Like I said with UW-Whitewater, you can’t overreact to losses in the WIAC. I did drop UWO three spots, but most of that was Wartburg and Carroll deserving to move up. UWO lost to UW-Eau Claire on the road last Wednesday, before getting back on track in a victory over UW-Stout. Behind a strong defense, the Titans are 6-2 in the WIAC and challenging Whitewater for the regular season title. UWW leads the standings by one game, but the two face off tomorrow night in Whitewater.
#17 Mary Hardin-Baylor (17-2): UMHB took a surprising loss to ETBU last Thursday, falling 79-47 on the road. Then came a closer-than-expected win over LeTourneau, 62-55. But with that said, leading scorer and All-America candidate Arieona Rosborough did not play in either game (outside of four brief minutes against ETBU) due to injury. ETBU certainly won the game and played lights-out, but without Rosborough, the offense struggled a bit more than usual. For now, I dropped UMHB two spots and time will tell to see how things move forwards. I’m keeping UMHB ahead of Hardin-Simmons because of the head-to-head result, especially, for now.
#18 Hardin-Simmons (17-3): The Cowgirls won at Sul Ross State and Howard Payne last week, and trail UMHB by a single game in the ASC standings. UMHB and HSU feel very much like IWU and Millikin, with a very thin margin separating the two. HSU is impressive because of its senior talent and outside shooting presence, which has really been bolstered with the addition of transfer Anna Fanelli this season. Fanelli’s assist numbers are fantastic, and her ability to run an offense from the point guard position has made HSU’s perimeter scoring presence especially dangerous.
#19 Loras (16-2): The Duhawks had some question marks early, but are on the rise in the ARC, and headed towards what appears to be another NCAA Tournament berth. The victory over UW-La Crosse looks pretty solid now, considering UWL’s success so far in the WIAC, and beating Coe at home last week is another positive for Loras. The two-win week saw Loras defeat both Coe and Nebraska Wesleyan, having now won 12 straight.
#20 Bates (18-2): The Bobcats improved by two spots in my ballot, with wins at Middlebury and Williams last week. The Middlebury victory was big in my opinion, considering Middlebury is a strong offensive team that went on to beat Tufts in triple-overtime the following day. Bates has seemingly come out of nowhere, as we expected they would be competitive but not ahead of Amherst, Tufts, and Trinity CT in the NESCAC standings. It has been impressive to see and Elsa Daulerio has really risen to the occasion multiple times, as the second-year center/forward averages 13.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, and shoots 50.9% from the floor.
#21 Scranton (17-2): The Lady Royals were jumped by Bates and Carroll in my ballot, moving them down two spots. Scranton is tied with Elizabethtown in the Landmark standings at 10-2, and likely needs to win the conference tournament to be playing in March, as regional ranking projections begin to come into clearer view. But that aside, Scranton is excelling on defense, with Landmark opponents shooting just 28.5% against the Lady Royals and averaging just 44 points per game.
#22 Willamette (12-7): I ended up being one of just two Willamette voters this week, which was somewhat expected. The seven losses immediately makes the Bearcats a tough sell for voters, but here’s the deal: Willamette is 12-4 against D3 opponents. The other three losses are to scholarship-level schools in NAIA and D2. The other positives on the resume? A season sweep of Whitman, who is a fringe Top 25 team for me right now, as well as a huge road win at Puget Sound. The Bearcats’ are 9-1 in the NWC, with their only loss being a double-overtime road defeat at Pacific in a game they led for quite some time. I’d also add that non-conference wins over Whittier and Trinity (TX) are worth noting, and while Willamette picked up some losses early in the schedule, the last two months have been highly successful for the Bearcats. They are tied for the lead in the NWC right now, and have several dynamic scorers. I’m trying to rank the Top 25 teams in the country today, and Willamette certainly belongs on that list.
#23 Washington & Lee (18-2): W&L is back in my ballot after falling out last week. They’ve been consistent, which I like to see, and the Generals have one of the country’s top players in Mary Schleusner. She does a little bit of everything on the court, and makes W&L a challenging opponent based on her scoring and rebound ability. I do worry about W&L being a bit too one-dimensional and lacking depth, but the Generals are atop the ODAC and continue picking up wins. The eye test certainly backs up having W&L inside my ballot, but these last three or four teams are far from locks in my ranking.
#24 Smith (15-3): Smith has been tough to figure out. You had the early loss to Mass-Dartmouth, then some solid wins–including a 31-point win over St. Joseph (CT)--followed by a loss to Dickinson. The Pioneers beat MIT and Springfield the first time around as non-conference games, but lost to Springfield in league play last week at home. Overall, I need to see Smith play a bit more to better figure out where they stack up. I’ve seen some strong performances, but there’s also been a handful of close-calls as of late as well.
#25 Gettysburg (15-3): The Bullets took a couple losses early which hurt their chances of being ranked in November/December. But now, having gone 12-1 in the Centennial Conference (only loss is to JHU by 3), Gettysburg has emerged as a team to watch. The win over Trine on Dec. 30 still looks good, and within league play, the Bullets have been near unstoppable. Tomorrow’s rematch with JHU at home is going to be huge for Gettysburg and is certainly a breakthrough opportunity. While the Bullets don’t have a great deal of depth, they play tremendous defense and move the ball well on the offensive end. This marks the second straight week I’ve had Gettysburg at #25.
That’ll wrap up this Top 25 Ballot Breakdown…there’s a few intriguing games on the slate tonight, including MIT/Middlebury, which starts at 5:30 pm ET. Hope the day has gone well for you, and I’ll be back tomorrow morning, taking a look at a HUGE group of conference duels set for tomorrow afternoon/evening. Lots to keep up with at this point in the season!