Week 7 Top 25 Ballot Breakdown
A look at my Top 25 ballot for D3hoops.com and my thoughts on some of the nation's best in D3 women's hoops
Alright, I’m back with another edition of my Top 25 ballot breakdown. This is the longest and probably most in-depth article I write each week, giving you some insight into my ballot for the D3hoops.com Top 25 Poll, and updates on each of my 25 ranked teams. As I often note, I am one of 25 voters and my perspective on this is certainly different from many of the others on the panel, which makes the weekly ranking more interesting, as everyone sees things a little differently when it comes to evaluating teams, resumes, and results. So just keep that in mind as you read through this!
Here we go…
#1 NYU (16-0): The Violets continue pressing forwards in UAA play, now 5-0 atop the league standings. Wins over WashU and Chicago this past week saw NYU score exactly 67 points in each game, as the Violets won both by double digits. It is just so difficult for opponents to compete with the amount of depth NYU has on hand, but I did think WashU did a solid job of battling back on the road on Friday night.
#2 UW-Whitewater (17-0): The Warhawks are now in my No. 2 spot, having won at UW-Platteville and at home against UW-River Falls this past week. Whitewater’s resume is just so strong at this point. Each of their last six wins have come against Massey Top 50 teams…what other team in the country has done that? The Warhawks’ two Massey Top 10 victories have come on the road, at Illinois Wesleyan and UW-Oshkosh, making this resume that much more impressive. Scott Peterson’s model has Whitewater’s overall average Massey Ranking of its wins being 63.56, meaning that the average opponent ranking of the Warhawks’ wins is in the 60s. By comparison, no other team’s rating is below 100.
#3 Rhode Island College (18-0): RIC continues to impress in the LEC and is just dominating conference play. The Anchorwomen have won their nine LEC games by an average of 41.7 points, and beat both Eastern Connecticut State and Castleton by 50+ points last week. This team appears poised for another Final Four run.
#4 Transylvania (17-0): Wins at Mount St. Joseph and Defiance this past week extended Transylvania’s win streak to 50 games, a feat that is pretty remarkable. Maintaining the level of consistency that Juli Fulks and her squad have demonstrated is extremely difficult in college basketball, yet Transy shows no signs of slowing down. It was due time for Whitewater to jump to No. 2 in my ballot and RIC stayed at No. 3, but Transylvania is as much in the national championship conversation as anyone right now.
#5: Gustavus Adolphus (14-1): The Gusties played just once this past week, due to the cancellation of Carleton’s season and unplayable court conditions against Augsburg on Saturday. That lone game came on Monday night, as Gustavus defeated St. Benedict, a Massey Top 100 team, 77-62. CSB really challenged the Gusties well, but I was most impressed by the passing efficiency and overall offensive execution from Gustavus throughout the contest. We’ve seen it all year, but Gustavus’ offensive success is very interesting to watch. The Gusties play with pace, but are patient at the same time, which keeps the turnover numbers low, and the points in the paint high.
#6 Christopher Newport (19-1): The Captains are one win away from reaching the 20-win mark this season, and we’re still in mid-January. CNU took down Meredith and Warren Wilson this past week at home, and with a solidified and experienced rotation by this point, the Captains are once again in a good position at this point in the season. While this portion of the schedule has been weaker, remember how tough the Captains’ start to the season was, and the resume the Captains built in the first two months. Matchups against Mary Washington are coming up as well.
#7 Hope (17-1): Hope has a number of quality victories, perhaps none more impressive than the wins over Millikin and Illinois Wesleyan. Yes, Hope won both of those games at home, but they were games in which I thought Millikin and IWU played exceptionally well. The Flying Dutch truly earned both of those victories, and Hope’s performances against other top-quality opponents has shown a consistency that lands the Flying Dutch in this spot in my ballot, ahead of both Millikin and IWU, despite both of those programs’ strong resumes. Hope won at Adrian and Olivet this past week in MIAA play.
#8 Millikin (15-3): I definitely dropped Millikin a little too far on my ballot in past weeks, especially when you consider the Big Blue has three losses, all on the road, and wins at DePauw, UW-Platteville, and now, Illinois Wesleyan. Key road wins such as those tend to hold a bit more weight in terms of my voting philosophy, considering the challenges that come with playing away from home. I understand the win over IWU last week came by a very narrow result, and that I had IWU at No. 5 in my last ballot, while Millikin was No. 15. But as I said, I had Millikin too low it seems, and going into a packed Shirk Center and emerging with a win is so difficult to do. A head-to-head win is pretty key for me in differentiating between two fairly even resumes, especially when that win came recently. When you have a head-to-head win on the road, and in this case, both teams have identical records, it’s very tough to keep the winning team behind in my ballot. That’s what happened here.
#9 Illinois Wesleyan (15-3): That said, IWU did go on the road and win at Carroll on Saturday, and Carroll is right there in the mix for that CCIW title. After all, Carroll has already beaten Millikin once. IWU swept the season series with Carroll, which is a valuable data point considering the high-level of play we continue to see from the Pioneers. IWU has another chance to beat Millikin this week, and they’ll need to do it on the road in Decatur. Very good chance that ends up being the game of the week. In an almost under-the-radar way, the CCIW has emerged as a league likely to get three teams into the NCAA Tournament. I say under-the-radar because we talked so much about the depth in the NESCAC, UAA, and WIAC in the preseason, but with Carroll really stepping up and Carthage and North Central being a bit better than I expected, this is undoubtedly one of the toughest leagues in the country. Hence, why I have two CCIW teams in my Top 10.
#10 Bowdoin (17-1): The frontrunner in the NESCAC right now, the Polar Bears beat both Wesleyan and Colby this past week. This is a Bowdoin team that is balanced and has four starters who have started in all 18 games this season, which often tends to be a mark of consistent teams. Three of those four average double figures in points, led by Sydney Jones (16.4 ppg), but the defensive performance has been really impressive in its own right as well. Bowdoin is allowing just 52.2 points per game this season, with opponents shooting just 34.5 percent against the Polar Bears.
#11 Johns Hopkins (15-1): JHU’s narrow four-point win over Washington College (MD) was a bit surprising last week, but the Blue Jays got the job done and then took down Muhlenberg on the road, 77-52. The Blue Jays currently hold a 14-game win streak, and I’m really impressed by JHU’s rebounding, as the often-wide rebounding margins in the Blue Jays’ favor are part of the formula to success. JHU is averaging an 8.0 rebounding margin this season and leads the Centennial Conference in offensive boards per game (17.9).
#12 Emory (14-2): The Eagles seem to be firmly in the No. 2 spot in the UAA, though they haven’t played NYU yet. After starting league play with three straight road contests, Emory went 2-0 at home this past week, beating Case Western Reserve and Carnegie Mellon. The CMU win is a Massey Top 100 victory (CMU is ranked #88), and Emory really looks strong on the defensive end. One of two UAA teams allowing fewer than 60 points per game (58.9), Emory has a good mix of offensive firepower and defensive consistency to excel within this difficult conference. All four UAA wins thus far have come by 10 points or less, which is a sign of the competitiveness found in UAA play each and every week.
#13 Catholic (17-0): The frontrunner in the Landmark Conference, I like where Catholic is at. Matchups against Elizabethtown and Scranton still await, but thus far, the Cardinals have passed each test. They currently hold four Massey Top 100 wins (Scranton, Marymount, at Elizabethtown, Shenandoah (neutral court)) and defeated Wilkes and Goucher last week, staying perfect on the season.
#14 UW-Oshkosh (14-3): The Titans are right in the WIAC title hunt as the conference schedule nears its halfway point. The defensive intensity is something I talk about often when mentioning Oshkosh, but I don’t think it can be complemented enough. In a top-tier league with high-level scorers on every roster, the Titans certainly score efficiently, but are consistent defensively, which gives them a chance to win in just about every situation. Not to mention, Oshkosh is No. 1 in the WIAC in assist-to-turnover ratio in conference play (5.67), with the next closest team at 2.33. Only Oshkosh and Whitewater have an assist-to-turnover ratio in WIAC play above 1.00. Those numbers are huge. Taking care of the ball and coming up with stops on defense are definitely keys to victory, especially in that league.
#15 Mary Hardin-Baylor (16-1): UMHB is in a great position right now in Region 10, and is winning at a high level in the ASC. The “toughest” games left on the slate are at home (against McMurry and Hardfin-Simmons), but you cannot take any game for granted in any league, especially on the road. But as long as The Cru continues its approach in the way that is has all season, UMHB could realistically hit the 22-win mark by the time we head into the final week of the regular season. That is pretty impressive considering UMHB plays in a league with another Top 25 team in Hardin-Simmons, and while the ASC is not a Top 5 league, there is certainly a case to be made that it is a Top 10 or Top 12 league in the country. I’ll say this too…UMHB was without leading scorer Arieona Rosborough and 6’0 post Kaitlyn Kollmorgen against Concordia last Saturday, and yet the Crusaders won big, 84-68. This is not a squad that is reliant on one or two players, and that depth has certainly aided in this 16-game winning streak.
#16 Wartburg (16-2): Wartburg’s win over Coe this past week was pretty impressive to me, considering Coe was playing very well and had won 10 straight entering the matchup. But Wartburg emerged with a 52-45 win, as the Knights’ defense answered the call and limited Coe to a 30.6% shooting day, along with a 1-of-15 mark from 3-point range. The Knights then won on the road against a solid offensive team in Central, 64-54. With the Coe win, Wartburg now has four Massey Top 50 wins this season.
#17 Hardin-Simmons (15-3): HSU won at home against ETBU and LeTourneau last week, and continues to be an offensive juggernaut. The Cowgirls are dynamic on the offensive end, with Paris Kiser, Parris Parmer, and Samanatha Tatum leading the way. Two of HSU’s three losses have come against Top 25 Massey teams, and while the Cowgirls have just two Massey Top 100 wins (resembling that of Scranton’s resume, which I’ll get to in a second), HSU definitely passes the eye test pretty convincingly. The fact that this a very experienced team with great senior leadership helps as well in ranking HSU.
#18 Loras (14-2): The Duhawks continue to rise higher in my ballot, and for good reason. I think we’ve seen Loras find its way back into this conversation after a couple of early losses took the Duhawks out of many voters’ ballots. At that point, we had seen home losses to Wartburg and UW-Platteville, and Loras’ best win was probably against UW-La Crosse. However, now we have seen that the Coe win on the road prior to those two losses was actually a pretty quality road victory, and the win over Elizabethtown in Puerto Rico further strengthened Loras’ resume. I really liked the win at Dubuque last week as well, as I think Dubuque is a much better team than its record reveals. At this point, Loras is 6-1 in the ARC, and on a 10-game win streak in late January. Definitely a Top 20 resume.
#19 Scranton (15-2): The Lady Royals are difficult to figure out. Having watched them play, this is a talented group that has plenty of offensive weapons, and I won’t be surprised to see Scranton make a run to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. At the same time, it’s hard to feel confident with Scranton resume-wise, considering the OT win at DeSales is still the Lady Royals’ only win this season over a Massey Top 100 team. There’s just not a lot of data points to evaluate this team off of. As I’ve said before, I prioritize the eye test as best as I can in my voting approach, but I also like to have data to back up my placement of a team within my ballot, considering how evenly-matched many of these teams are. Scranton is a solid team, and for the time being, the Lady Royals in the Top 20 feels justified. But the absence of quality wins makes it difficult, especially when other teams continue to elevate their resumes through conference play. All the Lady Royals can do is win the games in front of them, with an emphasis on the upcoming matchups against Catholic and Elizabethtown.
#20 Carroll (14-4): Carroll went 1-1 on the week, winning against Carthage, before falling by four points to Illinois Wesleyan at home. I ended up keeping Carroll at No. 20, considering the Pioneers competed all the way down the stretch with IWU, a Top 10 team. The case could certainly be made for Carroll to be higher, but for now, I want to see how the Pioneers fare at Millikin on Saturday. IWU swept the season series with them, but Carroll is already 1-0 against Millikin this season. And they’ll play Millikin just three days after the Big Blue battles IWU. Carroll boasts a top-level offense, and I definitely expect another high-scoring duel against Millikin this time around.
#21 Smith (14-2): Smith is 3-0 in the NEWMAC, tied atop the league standings with Coast Guard. The Pioneers have certainly posted some questionable results this season, but they seem to be on a smooth path at this point, having won six straight. Road wins at Babson and Wheaton (MA) this past week are notable, especially since both came by 14-point margins. Road wins in league play are difficult, no matter the opponent, so it is good to see Smith’s 5-1 road record this season. The Pioneers currently have five Massey Top 100 wins.
#22 Bates (16-2): I put Bates in my ballot for the first time this season, after the Bobcats took down Tufts, 62-60. Elsa Daulerio’s buzzer-beating shot off an inbounds pass gave Bates the dramatic win in front of a near-capacity crowd inside Alumni Gym. Bates is now 4-0 in the NESCAC, having shocked pretty much everyone (including myself) who had Trinity (CT), Tufts, Amherst, as the unquestioned Top 3 teams in the league entering the season. Credit to Bates. The Bobcats have also beaten Amherst and Wisconsin Lutheran this season, adding to a pretty impressive resume that has a chance to get even better against Middlebury and Williams this weekend. Daulerio is such an outstanding player, averaging 12.8 points and 7.2 boards per game, leading Bates on both ends of the floor. Bates has had the same five starters for all 18 games this season, and the consistency seen from that group is notable. These next few weeks of NESCAC play will be fun to watch.
#23 Baldwin Wallace (14-3): Baldwin Wallace is the only team still undefeated in the OAC, at 10-0 in league play, and the Yellow Jackets are in a good position heading into the homestretch of the regular season. A challenging stretch at the beginning of non-conference play has served BW well, as the Yellow Jackets have lost just once (to RIC) since falling to Oberlin on Nov. 29. Wins over Marietta and Ohio Northern certainly gave BW the upper hand in this OAC title race, and ultimately, those wins along with the early-season victory over Gettysburg keeps BW at No. 23 in my ballot.
#24 Whitman (13-4): Interesting, this might be the only situation in which a team that is currently in third place in its league ends up ranked in my ballot ahead of the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the league. Whitman is 6-2 in the NWC, behind Pacific and Willamette, who are both 7-1. Pacific and Willamette are certainly on my watch list, but Whitman has stayed ahead so far. The Blues already hold a win over Pacific, but non-conference play is where Whitman made its mark. A 54-53 win over Colorado College is a Top 60 Massey win, and the Blues’ dominant 85-51 win over Wartburg on a neutral court continues to be extremely impressive, considering Wartburg’s success. They contended well with CNU the following day, and beat a talented Puget Sound team in overtime last week. The resume is there, and of anyone in the NWC, Whitman probably has the best shot, as long as its winning percentage stays right around .800.
#25 Gettysburg (13-3): I had several teams under consideration for my ballot this week, but Gettysburg ended up winning out. 10-1 in the Centennial Conference, I’ve seen Gettysburg tested both in and outside of conference play. While that tough non-conference schedule yielded a couple of losses, we also saw Gettysburg beat Trine, 57-36, on a neutral court, which remains as Gettysburg’s best win (rankings-wise) so far. The No. 25 spot on my ballot is never easy, because there are several teams with a strong point or two, but also some flaws within their season’s performance. But Gettysburg’s recent consistency was key in my decision to put them into my ballot, as the Bullets are playing at an increasingly-high level right now, gaining momentum as the national tournament approaches.
On my radar: Middlebury, Willamette, Pacific, Trine, DePauw, Elizabethtown, Trine, Concordia (MN)
That wraps that up…hope you have had a great start to your week! Plenty of intriguing games on tonight’s slate, and I’ll have my usual D3 WBB Daily write-ups coming out each morning in the days ahead. Have an excellent rest of your Tuesday!