Week 6 Top 25 Ballot Breakdown
A look at my weekly Top 25 ballot for D3hoops.com
Good morning! I’m sitting in the Austin airport at 1 a.m. typing this up, and just submitted my Top 25 ballot for the D3hoops.com Poll this week. Lots to dive into, and as always, this is just the perspective of one voter. It’s not perfect by any means, but with the parity and constant competitiveness we’re seeing nationwide, I feel pretty good about how my Top 25 turned out this week.
#1 NYU (14-0): UAA play rolls on for the Violets, who continue to dominate their competition. Victories over Case Western Reserve and Carnegie Mellon came by margins of 26 and 29 points, respectively, and both wins were on the road. NYU remains the top team in my ballot as the Violets are firing on all cylinders. This team is the definition of balance, though. Only two players–Natalie Bruns and Morgan Morrison–average above 10 points per game. And even those two are at 13.8 points per game. The fact that this team has so much returning talent, plus the transfer additions of Morrison and Megan Bauman, and has still found this level of chemistry remains a testament to the chemistry of the roster and the selfless attitude seen when this team is on the floor.
#2 Transylvania (15-0): Transy’s defensive effort continues to be a strong point, and I would love to see how the Pioneer defense stacks up against a top-tier offense, like that of Millikin or Illinois Wesleyan. On defense, Transy certainly passes the eye test, and the defending national champs are rolling through HCAC play. This past week yielded wins over Hanover and Rose-Hulman, improving Transy to 8-0 in league play.
#3 Rhode Island College (16-0): I made the decision to move RIC ahead of UW-Whitewater this week, and it is no fault of Whitewater. RIC has earned this rank after continued impressive showing, including one-sided wins over Western Connecticut State and Keene State this past week. I was skeptical early on, but RIC is very much in position to make another deep tournament run. The wins week after week are evidence of that, and RIC has something few other teams in the current D3hoops.com Top 10 have: a win over a Top 10 opponent. RIC’s 71-61 victory over Gustavus Adolphus in Fort Lauderdale, Florida remains a strong point on the Anchorwomen’s resume.
#4 UW-Whitewater (15-0): Whitewater has been very impressive as well, adding to its WIAC win total this last week with a pair of home victories over UW-Stevens Point and UW-Stout. There is a reason why the Warhawks are No. 1 in Massey; behind NYU and Transy, Whitewater is No. 3 in the nation in overall efficiency according to D3datacast.com. I really have enjoyed watching Whitewater play this year and Aleah Grundahl and Kacie Carollo will both be in the All-America conversation. Behind those two seniors, Whitewater looks as close to an unbeatable team in the WIAC as you’re going to get.
#5 Illinois Wesleyan (14-2):The Titans remain No. 5 for me. Wins over North Park and Carthage this week set up a huge matchup in Bloomington on Wednesday against Millikin, and it will be a litmus test for both teams. This is a special IWU squad, and the depth is seen every time the Titans step on the floor; against a solid Carthage team on Saturday, three players ended up with 17 or more points. They shot 55.6% and 11-of-26 from 3-point range, and this offensive success continues to make IWU more and more of a national title contender in my opinion.
#6 Gustavus Adolphus (13-1): The Gusties are the team to beat in the MIAC and besides the loss to RIC, have taken care of business. Wins over Saint Mary’s and Hamline this past week extended Gustavus’ win streak to six, and I’m not sure who else in the MIAC (outside of Concordia-Moorhead) has the firepower for a full four quarters to hand Gustavus a loss. The Gusties remain at No. 6 for me once again this week, and are firmly planted within my Top 10. Efficiency-wise, D3datacast.com has Gustavus at No. 9. Looking forward to seeing the Gusties play in person later tonight.
#7 Christopher Newport (17-1): The 87-77 win for Marymount this past Wednesday was enough for me to raise CNU one spot in the ballot this week, as the Captains continue to add to their win total. Marymount is a Top 100 squad, and I thought the offense clicked in a big way for CNU in that one. While CNU does not have another big test until facing Mary Washington on Jan. 31, the Captains have built up a quality resume already that includes wins over Emory, Whitman, and Elizabethtown.
#8 Hope (15-1): Head coach Brian Morehouse earning his 700th career win on Saturday was certainly the highlight of a 2-0 week for the Flying Dutch. Hope is very much a Top 10 team in my eyes, but CNU moved one spot ahead this week, as A) I think CNU is coming together even more now than they were in the early months of the season, and B) Hope needing double-overtime to beat a 7-8 Alma team at home is not the best resume-builder. Overall, I really like the direction Hope is headed in, and look forward to seeing how the final nine regular season games unfold.
#9 Bowdoin (15-1): Bowdoin took a seven-spot jump in my ballot this week, and while part of that is the losses to teams ahead of them, I’ve had the chance to watch Bowdoin play more and really feel confident with the way the Polar Bears grade out via the eye test. Efficiency numbers have Bowdoin at No. 12 and Massey has Bowdoin at No. 12, too. Victories on the road at Middlebury and Williams saw Bowdoin win both by three points, and I thought the defense really stepped up in both. Middlebury’s Alexa Mustafaj and August Dixon and Williams’ Arianna Gerig each had 20+ point efforts against Bowdoin. But the Polar Bears shut down pretty much every additional scoring option, which proved to be key late in both games. Winning on the road in the NESCAC is tough, and Bowdoin is 6-0 on the road so far this season.
#10 Johns Hopkins (13-1): JHU is a tough one, because I can see the case for those who have JHU closer to #20 than #10 and the case for voters like myself, who have JHU near or in our Top 10s. JHU’s resume looks really sharp in my opinion, as I have noted before. The Blue Jays’ only loss is to NYU, and it came on NYU’s home floor. Wins over WashU (neutral court), Marymount, Gettysburg, and Chicago (neutral court) look pretty strong now, and the Blue Jays added victories in Centennial Conference play this last week by beating Swarthmore and Haverford, improving to 9-0 in league play. One-spot jump for JHU this week.
#11 Emory (12-2): Emory went 1-1 on a UAA road weekend in the Midwest, earning a hard-fought win at WashU on Friday before dropping a 72-58 game at Chicago yesterday. If you know the UAA, you know that’s a solid week. To go 2-0 is exceptional, and even 1-1 is above par for the course when it comes to road games. Especially against two teams that are in the Top 25 discussion almost weekly. The Eagles are a very impressive group with senior leadership and plenty of poise on both ends of the floor. Right now, Emory is No. 1 in the UAA in 3-point shooting, and I fully expect that will continue to come into play as an advantage as the Eagles navigate this daunting league schedule.
#12 Catholic (15-0): Catholic’s win over Scranton is a really notable data point for a Catholic squad that didn’t have many quality results to point to before last week. I brought up Catholic as a debatable team on Thursday’s Hoopsville show, and I understand this is a pretty big jump for a team that I had #22 last week. But taking down Scranton and putting together a 15-0 record are two pretty big factors in Catholic’s continued rise in the polls. I won’t be surprised if the Cardinals end up in the Top 10 this week. I’m still on the fence with Catholic, but I really like what I’ve seen the guards in the rotation, and Kerry Flaherty is certainly a top contender for Landmark Player of the Year. Her 3-point shooting is nothing short of exceptional.
#13 UW-Oshkosh (12-3): Oshkosh moves up one spot this week, after a pair of solid wins against UW-Platteville and UW-River Falls, as the Titans improve to 3-1 in the WIAC. Like I said last week, the defense is so impressive and I don’t think there’s a better defensive team in the WIAC itself this season. Platteville had just 47 points against Oshkosh and River Falls tallied just 55. That level of defense will keep Oshkosh in quite a few ballgames. Up next this week is a road duel at UW-La Crosse and a home contest against UW-Stevens Point.
#14 Mary Hardin-Baylor (15-1): I wrote quite a bit about UMHB after Thursday’s OT win at Hardin-Simmons and The Cru should take a pretty significant leap in the poll this week. Winning at both HSU and McMurry really improves UMHB’s resume, and the Crusaders proved this past week that the lengthy winning streak was no fluke. Much like Catholic, earning that “top-quality” win is going to be enough for quite a few voters to vault UMHB into their Top 15. Under head coach Katie Novak-Lenoir, in her first year at the helm, UMHB is playing an up-tempo style that has produced some incredible offensive efforts (they averaged 100.5 points per game this past week) and is seeing contributions from several different players on a daily basis. The Cru is, right now, the best team by far in Region 10.
#15 Millikin (13-3): UMHB jumped ahead of Millikin this week, but Millikin is still playing at a high level and wins this past week over Wheaton and North Park certainly help the resume. I am hoping to learn more about Millikin in Wednesday’s matchup at Illinois Wesleyan as the Big Blue has been inconsistent on the road this season. Millikin grades out as No. 8 in efficiency and No. 10 on Massey, with a clear edge on Wartburg, though from an eye-test standpoint, I think the margin between the two is fairly thin.
#16 Wartburg (14-2): Wartburg really hasn’t done anything wrong, and has a really solid road win at Loras that looks great on their resume. The losses to WashU and Whitman are very respectable, but what gets a lot of voters is the fact that the margins of the losses were very significant. Neither game was close, including the WashU game, which was played at Wartburg. That said, I really like the DePauw victory, and the Knight have been great in ARC play. Wednesday’s matchup at Coe could be really interesting, as I think Coe is a bit underrated and should give Wartburg a good test.
#17 Scranton (13-2): Here’s the caveat with putting Catholic high on my ballot largely rooted in the Scranton win: what if the Lady Royals aren’t as good as we initially projected them to be? Scranton now has two losses in Landmark Conference play and besides beating DeSales on the road in overtime, Scranton does not have a great win to point to. And while their games against Elizabethtown and Catholic have both been very competitive, Scranton has come out on the losing end of both. Do I think Scranton is a Top 20 team? Yes. But I dropped the Lady Royals several spots as a result of the jumps from Bowdoin, UMHB, and Catholic and being unsure about Scranton’s place within the Top 25 landscape. It’s been tough to get a pulse on the Lady Royals thus far. As always, I’m keeping a close eye on Scranton, and I’ll adjust my ballot accordingly based on what transpires.
#18 Hardin-Simmons (13-3): The Cowgirls drop just one spot, andPuget Sound (NC), while UMHB is now the highest-ranked team in my ballot, what I saw in that matchup in Abilene was an extremely competitive battle that went all the way down to the wire. HSU is a fantastic offensive team that shoots the 3 with so much confidence and accuracy. They took the game in OT against UMHB, and then came back to beat Concordia, 103-58, on Saturday. This is a dangerous team and despite the two losses in ASC play, HSU is not a team that teams want to see in the NCAA Tournament. With the way the offense goes for the Cowgirls, they put together huge scoring runs quickly, and with their 3-point shooting, tend to be pretty solid against zone defenses.
#19 Washington & Lee (15-1): W&L makes its debut in my ballot, and frankly, it is probably past time. Led by Mary Schleusner, the Generals are putting up some pretty notable numbers this season. Watching W&L defeat a strong Mary Washington team on Saturday was what did it for me, and pushed the Generals onto my ballot. It is arguably W&L’s best win this season and when you have a player like Schluesner on your roster, you’re going to win a lot of games. Her current stats? 21.6 points per game and 14.2 rebounds per game.
#20 Carroll (13-3): Carroll has won eight straight, dating back to a Dec. 6 win over North Park, and the Pioneers are certainly there with IWU and Millikin in the CCIW title discussion. After all, Carroll currently holds a head-to-head win over Millikin, and a 2-0 week with victories over Elmhurst and Augustana certainly improved Carroll’s standing in the CCIW. Augustana is also the No. 60 team in Massey, which gives Carroll a fourth Massey Top 100 win. Olivia Rangel leads the way on this Carroll squad, and I’ve been pretty impressed by the offensive efficiency of the Pioneers.
#21 Loras (13-2): Loras has won nine straight and is headed in a positive direction as January plays out. The Duhawks have really looked good all the way back to the Dec. 19 win in Puerto Rico over a then-nationally-ranked Elizabethtown squad, and it seems that maybe it just took Loras a little bit more time to get to this level than we had expected this season. At this point, Loras is playing like an NCAA Tournament team, and the Duhawks certainly have a clear defensive identity.
#22 Smith (12-2): Smith went on upset alert against WPI on Saturday, trailing by two entering the final quarter. The Pioneers came through, however, outscoring WPI, 25-19, over the final 10 minutes in an 82-78 victory. Smith continues to show a hint of inconsistency, but that seems to be getting better by this point in the season, and wins over Springfield, MIT, and Williams still stick out as being particularly meaningful. I would also add that it seems Smith having three go-to scorers has really factored into the strong results so far, as Jessie Ruffner, Sofia Rosa, and Ally Yamada, each average over 14.0 points per game. That spreads defenses out, and has given Smith an offensive boost as the season has gone on.
#23 Baldwin Wallace (12-3): The Yellowjackets are atop the OAC right now, and picked up a key 67-58 win over Ohio Northern on Wednesday, further separating BW from the rest of the pack. Six of their eight league games have been decided by single digits, but the bottom line is that BW is winning, and when you consider the Yellowjackets’ three losses are made up of two road losses, one neutral court loss, and two came against Massey Top 25 teams, the resume grades out pretty well. Things are clicking for BW right now, and it certainly seems that the Yellowjackets will be near the top of the Region 7 Regional Rankings.
#24 Whitman (12-4): This is tough. Whitman lost at Linfield on Friday night, and that caused the Blues’ significant drop in my ballot. That said, we saw a bounce-back win at George Fox, and Whitman remains a very solid team that went toe-to-toe with Wartburg and CNU, beating Wartburg in Nashville by a wide margin. Another loss will have Whitman on the outside of my ballot, but for now, I’ve seen enough to know Whitman is a Top 25 team, even with a few losses on its record. Korin Baker is one of the best players I’ve seen in Region 10 this year, and with her on the floor, Whitman is tough to stop. A matchup at home against Puget Sound awaits the Blues on Saturday.
#25 UW-Stout (11-4): Okay, here’s the thinking on this. The final spot came down to WashU, Trine, Amherst, DePauw, Stout, or Webster. There are flaws with every single one of those teams…WashU went 0-2 on the week, and dropped a home game to a 5-8 Rochester team that is good, but not great…and again, it was at home. Trine now has the same number of losses as Stout, but in terms of SOS, Stout is No. 11 in Massey, and Trine is No. 32. Amherst played a very weak non-conference schedule and has now opened NESCAC play with back-to-back Saturdays of disappointing losses to Middlebury and Bates. Now, both opponents are of really good quality in my opinion, but still, Amherst struggled a great deal in both, and came out on the losing end of both. DePauw is definitely on the rise, but still ranks behind Stout in several categories, including efficiency (Stout is No. 25, DePauw is No. 38). Webster is 15-0, but it is difficult to judge the Gorloks have an SOS number that is No. 264 in the nation, per Massey. As far as Stout goes, there’s plenty of flaws there, too. A 1-3 record in the last two weeks for starters. That includes a disappointing home loss to UW-La Crosse this past week. With that said, all three losses came by single digits and we’ve seen how good Stout can be this season. The eye-test is something I use in ranking every team, and what strikes me about Stout is that the depth in the rotation is about as good as I’ve seen it with any team across the country. That is huge. The WIAC will yield some losses, but to see Stout go on the road to Whitewater on Saturday and contend with the Warhawks, losing by 10, is notable. As is a head-to-head win at UW-Stevens Point, which keeps Stout ahead of UWSP for the time being in my opinion. This next week will be another good test for Stout, and I dropped the Blue Devils back 10 spots in my ballot this week to begin with. But I know this is a good team, and sure, I may be giving them the benefit of the doubt right now, but I’m also weighing Stout against several other teams in contention. I feel the most comfortable putting Stout at this No. 25 spot, with the expectation that the wins will start to pick up once again as WIAC play progresses. Time will tell if I’m right on this or not!
I’ll close things out there. Looking forward to watching some great Midwest basketball this week in Minnesota and Wisconsin, and I’ll continue with my daily posts here. Let me know your thoughts on the way the Top 25 is shaping up in the comments section below! You can also reach me on Twitter (@ZayasRiley) and via email: rileyzayas@gmail.com. Have a great start to your week!