Way-Too-Early Top 30: Ranking No. 11 to No. 15
Welcome back to another edition of my Way-Too-Early Top 30 ranking as we take a look at the way the 2024-25 season is shaping up. Hope everyone is having a great weekend! We’ve got five more teams to look at today, as I take a look at No. 11 to No. 15. As a reminder, this is very preliminary, considering information on 5th-year seniors and incoming/outgoing transfers are not always available. I’ll say with some certainty that my actual Preseason Top 25 in October will end up looking different from this ranking, so just keep that in mind as you read!
15. Carroll (2023-24 record: 23-5)
Carroll won its first CCIW Tournament title last season, fighting its way to the top of the league in what was a three-way race for first place for much of the year. All four regular season losses came against nationally-ranked opponents and a season sweep over Millikin was certainly a highlight, especially considering they hadn’t won in Decatur since 2019. While their NCAA Tournament run ended sooner than I expected (credit to Puget Sound for that!), in the first round, Carroll put together an impressive season. Nobody will be overlooking the Pioneers this time around, and with at least four returning starters, Carroll is certainly a team I’m looking forward to seeing in 2024-25.
Olivia Rangel comes off a stellar junior season in which she averaged 18.8 points per game to go along with 4.8 assists per contest (the second-most in the CCIW). Rangel was incredible last season, coming through in many of Carroll’s biggest games, including the Jan. 27 win over then-No. 16 Millikin on the road. Rangel put up 30 points in the 80-75 victory, and is undoubtedly on my list of the top returning guards in D-III women’s hoops.
But as I’ve said before, it takes more than just one main scorer when it comes to competing at a national level. Carroll had that last year. And they’ll have it again in the coming season. Natalie Gricius, who was an All-Region forward by D3hoops.com as a sophomore last season, returns after averaging 28.1 minutes/game. Her 16.3 PPG ranked second on the team, and she shot an impressive 82.2% at the free throw line (60-of-73), taking advantage of her trips to the charity stripe. Emilie Wizner will be another key part of that returning core, and the Carroll backcourt is going to be strong. A sophomore last season, she was one of the Pioneers’ top 3-point shooters, converting on 49% of her attempts from beyond the arc while averaging 14.1 PPG. Natalie Palzkill is another guard who should make an impact, as she made 26 starts, shooting 53.1% from the field with an average of 6.2 points and 4.7 rebounds per game.
With the possible exception of forward Lauren Soyke (who was a senior, but could return for another season), who started 28 games last season, Carroll should have the entirety of its rotation back. There’s a lot to like with this group. Rangel appears poised for an All-America season. They have exceptional offensive balance and a high efficiency number on that end of the floor (Carroll was 6th in Massey’s offensive rankings last season). The Pioneers are ready for another run at the CCIW crown.
14. UW-Stout (2023-24 record: 23-8)
We’re staying in Wisconsin, but switching conferences, as UW-Stout comes in at No. 14 after a run to the Sweet 16 last season. Stout was an interesting case in 2023-24, considering the Blue Devils were comfortably in my Preseason Top 25, and seemed to be in a favorable spot within the national picture. With the exception of a one-sided loss to Gustavus Adolphus, Stout looked pretty dominant in its first 12 games, going 11-1 including wins over Trine and UW-Stevens Point (who was ranked #25 at the time). Then came a tailspin, starting with a loss to UW-Oshkosh. Five more losses followed in the next six games, making many of us question if Stout would even reach the WIAC Tournament, much less the NCAA Tournament.
But the Blue Devils regained their early-season form just in time, winning their final six WIAC games (including a win over then-No. 5 UW-Whitewater) before taking the WIAC Tournament title in three consecutive double-digit victories. A pair of impressive NCAA Tournament wins over WashU and Puget Sound sent the Blue Devils into the sectional round, and the tournament run proved that this is indeed a program to watch out for in the coming season.
That’s because just about everyone is back. Raegan Sorensen, a Third Team D3hoops.com All-American and play-making guard, enters her senior year after averaging 18.5 PPG and 8.5 RPG. She ranked No. 2 in the WIAC in scoring last season, and is quickly closing in on Stout’s all-time scoring record. Amanda Giesen, a forward who had 12.3 PPG and has started all 81 games she has played in at Stout, will return as a 5th-year senior. Anna Mutch will also be back for a 5th year, after shooting 54.8% from the field and 82.4% from the free throw line. Notably, Mutch scored 22 points in the opening-round tournament win over WashU, her season-high. Lexi Wagner, who transferred in mid-season, converted on 51 3-pointers in 21 games in a Stout uniform. And Sam Schaeffer led the team in assists, ranking No. 2 in the WIAC in assist-to-turnover ratio, at 2.2. There will be no question as to whether Stout has the necessary depth, experience, or talent to compete for the WIAC title once again.
From a returning production standpoint, the Blue Devils will be guard-heavy, and that approach worked for them last year. While they didn’t have a tradition post player on the floor most times, it allowed for a faster-paced style of attack, and Stout ended up leading the WIAC in scoring, with 72.9 PPG. As long as they can avoid a pileup of turnovers, the offense can be extremely effective, and we saw that play out against Transylvania—one of the nation’s best defensive teams—in the third round of the tournament.
But I should also note that in the limited minutes she played, 6’2 forward Maraya Wiltrout showed that she can be an important piece of the puzzle in a tradition post position, if that’s something Stout needs. Again, she played limited minutes, and much of her experience came in non-conference, but she was also a freshman. Now, as a sophomore, Wiltrout may see an expanded role, giving the Blue Devils a quality inside presence.
You have to go back to 2007 to find the last time Stout found itself in the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back seasons. But with a plethora of experienced seniors on the roster heading into 2024-25, this is a team ready—and able—to make another deep tournament run.
13. Bowdoin (2023-24 record: 28-3)
It seems that no matter what year it is, a NESCAC team will always be in the national title conversation. Often more than one. I’ve already mentioned both Bates and Middlebury in previous editions of this Way-Too-Early Top 30, and those two squads will certainly contend for the league title. But I think the favorite entering this 2024-25 season is Bowdoin, who comes off an exceptional year. While past history isn’t a metric I use in ranking teams, it is notable that Bowdoin has been somewhat of a constant when it comes to the Top 25 conversation for the last two decades. When you consider the Polar Bears have reached the NCAA Tournament 20 times in the last 24 years, it makes sense. Interestingly, last season’s success, which saw Bowdoin win the NESCAC Tournament before reaching the Elite Eight, marked the program’s first appearance in the national tournament since the 2019-20 season. And the way it’s shaping up, the Polar Bears will be playing in March for a second-straight year.
Three of the five starters from last year’s team are back, highlighted by Sydney Jones, a play-making guard who had 12 20-point performances as a junior in 2023-24. Jones was crucial to Bowdoin’s two wins in the NCAA Tournament, including a 12-point, 11-rebound double-double in the opening round win over Mass-Dartmouth. She averaged 15.9 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and 3.6 APG in 30.2 minutes/game, earning the NESCAC Player of the Year award. Jones’ presence, especially as an experienced senior who has 67 starts under her belt, will be especially key as Bowdoin enters this upcoming season.
I was also impressed by Carly Davey last season, and she will be another critical piece to Bowdoin’s attack. Davey played the most minutes of anyone on the team, at 32.3, averaged 10.3 PPG, and dished out 85 assists (an average of 2.7 per game). A versatile guard who can affect the game with or without the ball in her hands, she is a valuable piece of Bowdoin’s backcourt. Callie Godfrey is another player to watch for, and could be in position to take an even more prominent role in the post as she enters her senior year. A 6-0 forward, Godfrey averaged 9.8 PPG and 5.0 RPG last season, shooting 51.1% from the field. Her 33 blocks were also a team-high.
The Polar Bears may lose Jess Giorgio, a 6-2 forward who averaged 22.1 minutes/game, and Megan Tan, a point guard who averaged 27.0 minutes/game, from the starting lineup (both were seniors, though they each have an additional year of eligibility), so we will see how that plays out.
I like the way the season is shaping up for Bowdoin. The Polar Bears may not have nearly as much returning production as some of the teams in this ranking, but they do bring back the reigning NESCAC Player of the Year, which counts for a lot. They’ll be a tough out; they always are. There’s a reason they were No. 7 nationally in overall efficiency (per D3Datacast.com) last year. I expect more of the same in the season to come.
12. Gettysburg (2023-24 record: 24-4)
Two of Gettysburg’s four losses last season came before Thanksgiving, and really, from that point on, the Bullets couldn’t be stopped. Big wins over Trine and Johns Hopkins in the second half of the regular season gave way to a Centennial Conference Tournament title. While St. John Fisher ended Gettysburg’s season in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, I think it was clear last season that the Bullets were going to be a tough out again in 2024-25. Gettysburg has played in each of the last six NCAA Tournaments, and won three straight Centennial titles, so a high expectations are nothing new. But when you consider that the top five leaders in minutes/game from a team that went 24-4 are expected to return, it makes you think, ‘How much better can they be this time around?’
Gettysburg really impressed me with its defensive tenacity through much of last year, holding opponents to a 48.5 PPG average. With a defensive efficiency rating of 69.6 (No. 17 in D-III), the Bullets were simply a tough team to score on. On 15 occasions, Gettysburg held a team below 50 points, going 15-0 in those contests. That’s impressive, no matter who, when, or where that game is being played. Strength on the defensive end is a trait you love to see in teams, and Gettysburg certainly has that.
Alayna Arnolie is the top returning scorer for Gettysburg, as the guard averaged 14.8 PPG last season, and notably had a 22-point performance in the Bullets’ home win over then-No. 9 Johns Hopkins. Arnolie added 46 steals and 3.7 rebounds per contest in 31.8 minutes/game, and she will be a huge part of Gettysburg’s play on both ends of the floor as a junior this season, with the ability to score at all three levels. Shinya Lee really stepped up for the Bullets in the paint, as the forward/center from Rochester finished the year tied for the conference lead in blocks/game, at 2.1. She also, unsurprisingly, led Gettysburg in the rebounding category, with 8.1 boards per game.
And then you have Mackenzie Szlosek, a sharpshooter from long-range who shot 46.2% on 3-point attempts last season. A soon-to-be senior guard, she averaged 32.0 minutes/game and is an outstanding shooter overall, having also converted on 81.2% of her free throw attempts. For as much as I praised the defensive effort from Gettysburg, this team can score in bunches, and Szlosek and Arnolie lead the charge on that front.
Gettysburg had five players with 20+ starts last season, and that entire group should return. I really like what the Bullets bring to the table, and head coach Nate Davis always seems to have his team ready. Winning the Centennial in back-to-back years won’t be an easy task, but this squad is certainly ready for the challenge.
11. Johns Hopkins (2023-24 record: 26-4)
One of the last hires in last summer’s offseason coaching cycle was Rodney Rogan, who took over at JHU in August after a successful run at Rhodes. And he immediately took charge of a national title contender, picking up where Katherine Bixby (who departed for a D1 assistant job at Loyola) left off. His leadership was exceptional last season, as the Blue Jays battled with Gettysburg for the Centennial Conference title, and made a run to the second weekend of the national tournament. While JHU has earned nine tournament bids since 2000, last year was the first time in that span that the Blue Jays reached the Sweet 16. In fact, before last season, you had to go back to 1998, when it was still a 48-team tournament, to find the last time JHU won two NCAA Tournament games in the same season.
It was a talented squad last year, one that made waves with wins over WashU, Marymount, and Gettysburg in the first two weeks of the regular season. An eight-point win over then-No. 11 UChicago on a neutral floor just before New Year’s only raised JHU’s national standing, as the Blue Jays climbed in the national polls. What’s exciting is the fact that all five starters—and the entirety of the main rotation, for that matter—is expected to return for the 2024-25 campaign.
Michaela O’Neil will be one of those returning starters, and she could be in for an All-America year after making significant strides last season. She improved her points per game average by 3.0 (12.0 PPG), grabbed 31 more offensive rebounds (44 in 22-23, 75 in 23-24), and shot 70.2% on free throws (59-of-84), a significant increase from her average of 55.9% the previous year. A 5-11 forward, O’Neil enters her senior year, and will be a focal point of JHU’s success.
I could say the same about Greta Miller, who was fantastic as a junior last season. Averaging 30.3 minutes/game, the forward put up seven double-doubles, 10.2 PPG, and 8.6 RPG. She had back-to-back 13-point, eight-rebound performances in the NCAA Tournament, and between Miller and O’Neil, JHU’s frontcourt is extremely strong.
When it comes to guard play, JHU has plenty of talent there, too. Macie Feldman’s 1.9 assist-to-turnover ratio ranked No. 1 in the Centennial last season, and her 50 steals certainly contributed well to JHU’s defensive presence. Elisabeth Peebles shot 40.8% from beyond the arc (58-of-142), while averaging 12.1 PPG.
There is no weak spot when it comes to JHU’s core rotation heading into 2024-25. They have the makings of being a Top 10 team, and honestly, the margin was extremely thin between JHU and Gettysburg when I put these teams side-by-side. Both will have incredible depth, and quality players coming off the bench. It’s going to be a very intriguing conference title race, and it will not surprise me in the least if we have both JHU and Gettysburg in the Top 10 at some point this coming season. Those head-to-head matchups will undoubtedly be must-see TV.
Way-Too-Early Preseason Top 30 (so far)
Johns Hopkins
Gettysburg
Bowdoin
UW-Stout
Carroll
DePauw
Trine
Trinity (TX)
SUNY New Paltz
Catholic
Vassar
Chatham
Elizabethtown
Baldwin Wallace
Gustavus Adolphus
Concordia Moorhead
Middlebury
Whitman
Guilford
Willamette
Have a great rest of your Sunday! As always, feel free to leave thoughts/feedback/questions in the comments section below, or email me at rileyzayas@gmail.com.