Top 25 Ballot Breakdown: Week 7 (Jan. 22, 2025)
An in-depth look at my Top 25 ballot this week for the D3hoops.com Top 25 poll
Welcome back to another edition of my Top 25 Ballot Breakdown! I’ll go through each of the 25 teams I voted for in my ballot for D3hoops.com on Monday, looking at what I’ve seen and in some places, why I moved a team up or down by a certain amount. As always, my goal is that this analysis helps give you a better idea of why I vote for certain teams, what I’m looking for as a voter, and how that process unfolds each week as I put together my ballot. I consider it a great responsibility to be one of the 25 voters for D3hoops.com’s WBB Top 25 poll, and transparency is important, especially in doing these rankings where there’s no perfect science on assembling a ballot and opinions differ on teams across the board.
» Check out the Week 7 Top 25 Poll from D3hoops.com!
NYU (14-0): What more can you say? The Violets added a pair of wins over Massey Top 100 opponents to their resume last week, taking down Emory and Rochester in the first full UAA weekend of the season. We’ll see NYU on the road for the first time in conference play this week, as the Violets head to Carnegie Mellon and Case Western Reserve, both of whom looked pretty good at WashU this past weekend.
Scranton (15-0): The Lady Royals stay in my No. 2 spot. If I needed any more convincing that Scranton deserves to be so high on my ballot, the 77-55 victory over Catholic on Saturday did just that. Catholic is a team I’ve had in my ballot since the preseason (and the same is true for most voters), which says that much more about Scranton winning by 22, even at home. Scranton’s defense continues to impress, but I also really appreciated seeing the Lady Royals connect on 12-of-30 3-point attempts against the Cardinals. Scranton’s guard play, on both ends of the floor, is a huge piece of their success thus far.
Illinois Wesleyan (16-0): The Titans played just once this past week, but it was a notable one game, as IWU led Carthage from the 8:16 mark of the first quarter until the final buzzer, winning 65-42. I wrote about this in my “Wednesday takeaways” post, but IWU’s defensive presence seems to have gotten so much better over these last few weeks, getting back to doing what they do best; forcing turnovers and pushing the pace. Limiting their turnovers to nine against Carthage was also especially noteworthy. With the way IWU has played these last couple weeks and UW-Oshkosh struggling a bit in the OT win over UW-Whitewater, I felt good about moving IWU back up one spot in my ballot.
UW-Oshkosh (16-0): Oshkosh continues to be very impressive. I think the rest of the nation is starting to realize that even more, watching the way the Titans have progressed through the early part of their WIAC schedule. Wednesday’s OT win at UW-Whitewater was exactly what I expect a Top 15 matchup to look like, and for Oshkosh to come away with the win was a resume-booster. Beating UW-La Crosse by 18 on Saturday is worth noting too; UWL has been inconsistent, but the Eagles are tough—far better than their 1-4 WIAC record indicates. Oshkosh’s sometimes-limited offensive production can raise doubt, and last Wednesday showed what can happen when they are unable to win on defense alone. But they still won, and remain undefeated. I had no thought of moving UWO past No. 4.
Smith (13-1): Smith stays in my Top 5 for a second straight week. The 61-51 win at WPI on Saturday wasn’t the best of performances from the Pioneers, but they continue to grade out well in efficiency (No. 3 in efficiency margin, No. 7 in offense, No. 3 in defense) and what I’ve seen of them on film corresponds to that. I’m not sure there are many teams playing better defense than Smith right now.
Bowdoin (15-0): The Polar Bears just keep winning, and they’re now doing it against above-average opponents, something we didn’t see much of in the first two months of this season. They had WPI and Bates this past week and won both on the road. While some may look at the 57-52 win at Bates (who remains winless in the NESCAC) and see it as too narrow of a margin for a Top 10 team, Bates’ talent level doesn’t correlate with the recent struggles they’ve had. And the rivalry dynamic always raises the intensity level, which definitely contributed to Bates playing Bowdoin so tough at home.
Whitman (14-1): Whitman remains undefeated against D-III opponents, and overall, the Blues are Region 10’s strongest team. But road conference games are tough, and we saw that last week, as Whitman got past Pacific and George Fox by single digits on Friday and Saturday. They led for the majority of both games and were never really on upset alert, but neither victory was really “secured” until the final minute or so. I saw more from Bowdoin to move them up, causing the flip at No. 6 and No. 7 between Whitman and Bowdoin this week.
Trine (14-2): Gustavus Adolphus’ loss certainly helped push Trine higher on my ballot (by two spots), though the Thunder have more than earned their way into my Top 10 on back-to-back weeks. They look like a complete team, and one that can make a deep run in the tournament. Sidney Wagner is so reliable at point guard, and the offense really starts with her. Beating Adrian by 30 and Kalamazoo by 26 this past week are hardly data points that stand out on a resume, but there was definitely no letdown from the Thunder after taking down Hope back on Jan. 11. I like to see that, especially when it’s road conference games, regardless of the opponent.
UW-Stout (13-3): So much of this ranking process involves a voter’s base philosophy on evaluating teams. I try to find balance between rewarding a team’s overall resume and what they did in November, while also realizing that the team on the floor in those November non-conference games is almost always never the same team in mid-January. Stout is a great example of that; a few significant injuries held them back in November, but now in WIAC play and fully healthy, this is a team with a high ceiling. Wins over UW-La Crosse (77-69) and UW-Stevens Point (74-64) really raised their profile last week, especially watching how they found an offensive rhythm in the second half against UWSP’s hard-nosed defense. The Blue Devils currently rank No. 3 nationally in offensive efficiency, only behind NYU and Scranton, and I felt confident enough to move them up four spots into my Top 10 this week.
Hope (13-3): Like Trine, the Flying Dutch got Kalamazoo this past week and rolled to a 97-43 win on the road, then beat Alma, 80-67. Hope hasn’t played at home since Dec. 14, with all four MIAA contests in January so far coming on the road. I think the trajectory continues to point upwards for the Flying Dutch, who kept pace with all the top opponents on their schedule, including Trine and Illinois Wesleyan. I still think we’re going to see Hope’s top three freshmen—Anna Richards, Leah Richards, and Maddie Petroelje—step into even more prominent roles as this season goes on and the tournament rolls around. There’s room for Hope to be even better than they currently are, especially on the defensive end.
Christopher Newport (17-1): There’s a lot of differing opinions on CNU, and for good reason. As I’ve noted in previous ballot breakdowns, they haven’t played a ton of Top 100 opponents this season (which makes comparing them to these other teams difficult), they’ve had some close calls, and the loss to Southern Virginia, even as good as SVU is, still dents the Captains’ resume a bit. All that said, they’re getting back to top form now and as usual, doing it with a lot of depth on the bench. They left no doubt in the 92-57 win over Salisbury on Saturday afternoon, as 13 players got involved in the scoring.
Gettysburg (15-1): As time goes on, it’s becoming more apparent that Gettysburg is for real. I’ve kept them in that 15-20 range for a few weeks now, but the 65-42 win over Franklin & Marshall last Wednesday stood out. F&M is a solid team, 11-6 overall, yet Gettysburg swept the season series with the Diplomats, and picked up another win over Ursinus on the road, 60-53. Obviously, winning head-to-head against Centennial Conference contender Johns Hopkins two weeks ago helps in pushing Gettysburg a little higher in my ballot as well. They’re currently 10th in the country in adjusted efficiency margin.
Baldwin Wallace (14-1): The Yellow Jackets aren’t making it easy to figure them out! They went to Mount Union and nearly fell victim to an upset, escaping with a 46-45 win, then turned around three days later and held nothing back in an 81-38 win over Marietta. Let’s be clear: Marietta is a quality team with in the OAC, and 10-6 overall, so BW nearly doubled its point total from three nights before and won by 44. The one constant seems to be BW’s effort on the defensive end. After all, three of the Yellow Jackets’ last four opponents were held below 50, with the only exception being Wilmington, who had 52. Resume-wise, BW is in a good spot, with notable wins over Carnegie Mellon and Trine. I wish the offensive production would be a bit more consistent, but overall, Cheri Harrer’s team is the class of the field in the OAC title race.
Gustavus Adolphus (14-1): There are now just six undefeated teams nationally, after Bethel went to Gustavus and came out with a 72-58 win on Saturday evening. I really wasn’t sure how much I should move the Gusties down in my ballot, when you consider that they are 14-1, have wins over Colorado College, UW-La Crosse, and UW-Stout (though Stout was without All-American Raegan Sorensen in that one). But resume and record is only one piece of the puzzle. Bethel was better in almost every area on Saturday, and while that’s only one result, it highlighted some of Gustavus’ weaknesses that weren’t quite exposed in previous contests; notably, rebounding. The Gusties were held without an offensive rebound for the entire 40 minutes, and while Bethel had just 3, rebounding has been a struggle for much of this season. Gustavus is still very much in that MIAC title race and an impressive team—it’s why they’re in my Top 15. I just think at the moment, they’re a step behind the teams in my Top 10.
UW-Whitewater (12-4): Watching UW-Whitewater take UW-Oshkosh into OT, and do so with leading scorer Kacie Carollo scoring just 3 points over the final 25 minutes, really gave me (and I’m sure other voters) confidence in keeping the Warhawks in the middle of my ballot. After they went 0-2 the week prior, with losses to Stevens Point and Stout, it was hard to place them within my rankings, knowing they were good, but not quite having recent results to back that up. Battling Oshkosh the way they did stood out, and to get past UW-Eau Claire by 11 on Saturday added to that. Whitewater stays put at No. 15 in this week’s ballot.
Ohio Wesleyan (14-2): Now comes the part of the ballot where you’re forced to drop some teams, even if your opinion of them didn’t change. Gustavus’ loss pushed the Gusties back, and by placing them at No. 14, I had to decide on Ohio Wesleyan, who had I had at No. 14 last week. The Battling Bishops flat-out dominated Kenyon and Wooster, both of whom are at the bottom of the NCAC, including a 15-assist performance from PG Elizabeth Homan on Saturday. OWU remains a team that could go on a deep run if the pieces line up in March, as Kasey Schipfer, Macy Miller, and Homan form a top-tier trio that is really hard to stop on the offensive end. The real test comes at DePauw tonight, where we should see OWU pushed a little bit, especially on the road. I still think they’re a bit inconsistent (which is partially why I slid them down this week, when forced to make a decision), but time will tell on that.
Catholic (13-2): When your two losses come to Scranton and Elizabethtown, alongside wins over Shenandoah, Susquehanna, Vassar, and Messiah, I’d say your resume is pretty solid. Catholic is now in position to finish third in the Landmark (which tells you how strong the top of the league is), and while they weren’t great at Scranton on Saturday, neither was Elizabethtown. Scranton is a step ahead in the Landmark, but Catholic has steadily progressed from November until now, ranking No. 11 nationally in efficiency margin and No. 12 in defensive efficiency. When their senior guards are playing well and the 3s are falling, Catholic becomes a tough team to beat.
Elizabethtown (13-2): Yes, the Blue Jays beat Catholic on the road and I have them flipped. The ETown/Catholic conversation is probably one I’ll be having often as we continue through the rest of the regular season. Until we actually see Catholic play at ETown in the second meeting of regular season, it’s difficult to fully compare the two teams right now. ETown’s 73-69 win back on Nov. 20 remains very impressive and a highlight on the Blue Jays’ resume, though I do think Catholic is a different team at this point, and more connected defensively than they were in November. ETown has gotten better too; the Blue Jays are 16th nationally in efficiency, and have a Top 5 offense in terms of adjusted efficiency. They’ll continue to be right in that Top 15-20 mix in my ballot.
WashU (10-4): I dropped the Bears 10 spots after their 0-2 week at home, one that ultimately cost WashU its spot in the poll itself. Losses to Case Western Reserve and Carnegie Mellon at home were not what anyone expected, especially not in the UAA, where road wins come just a little tougher due to the travel aspect. WashU was coming off one of its most impressive performances of the year, trouncing Chicago, 72-45. But they never found that same kind of rhythm this past week, going down early to CWRU in what turned out to be one of the bigger upsets of the weekend. They didn’t bounce back on Sunday, either, instead falling behind 30-8 after the first quarter. No, WashU did not look like a Top 25 team this past weekend, and I think everyone admits that. But I opted to keep WashU in for the time being, simply because weekends like the one the Bears just went through are all part of a basketball season. Look at Wartburg (who I’ll get to in a minute); they went 0-2 in Texas a month or so ago, but now sit at No. 12 in the poll. WashU has looked very good in several other key contests throughout this season, and that can’t just be forgotten because of two (very) difficult performances. That said, this coming weekend at Rochester and Emory will be very telling, as to how WashU responds and handles the travel of the longest trip within the UAA.
Johns Hopkins (12-3): The Blue Jays continue to turn the corner and keep themselves in the Centennial title race. Macie Feldman’s triple-double against Franklin & Marshall was pretty impressive, as was the 79-42 win itself, considering F&M is a Top 150 team in Massey. It capped a 3-0 week for JHU, who also won at Mary Washington and beat Mount Aloysius before the F&M victory. They’ve now jumped to No. 5 nationally in efficiency and slid up one spot in this week’s ballot.
Wartburg (14-2): I moved Wartburg back just a bit, in large part due to the shuffling of my ballot, the effect of WashU falling down to No. 19, and Catholic and JHU each moving up. Overall, my opinion of Wartburg is the same as it was last week, as the Knights added an 87-53 win over Buena Vista on Saturday. The Knights have the necessary experience on their roster for another big year, but have struggled through the early portion of A-R-C play, even as they’re riding a six-game win streak. They looked better against Buena Vista than they did the previous week against Nebraska Wesleyan, and I think we’ll really see if Wartburg has put that lull behind them over the next two games: at Coe tonight and at home against Central on Saturday.
Bethel (12-3): The win over Gustavus said a whole lot. To go on the road, against the No. 6 team in the country, and win by 14 was one of the more impressive results of last week. Bethel had been on my watch list for a little while, but this win put them into my ballot. Now 8-0 in the MIAC, the Royals are in sole possession of first place in the standings and have quality wins over Concordia (MN), Amherst, and St. Benedict. It seems the 84-42 loss to Scranton in late December was probably more of an outlier (and a testament to how good Scranton is) than an indicator of Bethel’s talent level. The way the Royals have been playing since the start of January makes me think they’ll climb even higher in my ballot before the regular season comes to a close.
UW-Stevens Point (13-3): I’m keeping the Pointers in my ballot, especially after watching them battle UW-Stout so well on the road last Saturday. UWSP is pretty efficient offensively, shooting 41.6% from the field this season, and their defense is tough to beat. It’s not so much UWSP forcing a bunch of turnovers as it is coming up with timely steals and taking away offensive rebounds. They don’t allow many second-chance opportunities and lead the WIAC in rebounds, both of which help make them the second-best scoring defense in the league. Tonight gives us our first look at those top two scoring defenses in the WIAC, as UWSP hosts UW-Oshkosh.
Carnegie Mellon (12-2): I went back and forth on keeping CMU in or not. After all, they did take a 62-54 loss on Friday night at Chicago. But it’s hard to look past that 86-67 win at WashU. They started fast and never really looked back, shooting 13-of-24 from 3-point range and 45.8% from the field. CMU is capable of putting up some big results in UAA play, and it seems that the Tartans now have a legit shot at being the UAA’s No. 2 team. We’ll find out more on Friday, when we see the Tartans host No. 1 NYU for the first time this season.
East Texas Baptist (15-3): This came down to a Colorado College vs. ETBU discussion for No. 25 on my ballot. ETBU went 2-0 last week, including the 73-66 home win over No. 14 Hardin-Simmons, the Tigers’ first marquee win of the season. Along with wins over Millsaps and Wartburg, plus a single-digit loss to Illinois Wesleyan, ETBU’s resume is solid. Colorado College has the win over Gustavus Adolphus, and added a notable 70-51 win at home over a talented McMurry squad on Sunday, capping a 2-0 week of their own. Ultimately, I’m giving ETBU a very slight edge, and will re-evaluate after we see ETBU play at Mary Hardin-Baylor tomorrow. The Tigers have strong post play, but complement that with great guards, and their defense is one of the best I’ve seen in Region 10. I worry a bit with Colorado College, who wasn’t super convincing in a 69-60 win over 6-7 Concordia at home last week, and dropped a game at Texas Lutheran the week prior. We know CC is excellent at home, but on the road, they have had some trouble, winning only 57-54 at St. Thomas (TX) back on Dec. 14 as well. Again, I spent a long time on this one, and I’ll take another good look for next week’s ballot after ETBU faces the ASC’s other top contender this week.
Teams I had in my ballot that aren’t in the poll: WashU, Bethel, East Texas Baptist
Teams I didn’t have in my ballot that are in the poll: Washington & Lee, Hardin-Simmons, Chicago
Biggest differences between my ballot and the poll (+/- based on differentiation from my own ranking): Hope (+6), UW-Stout (+6), Trine (+5), Wartburg (-9), Gustavus Adolphus (-6)