Top 25 Ballot Breakdown: Week 6 (Jan. 15, 2025)
An in-depth look at my Top 25 ballot for the D3hoops.com Top 25 poll
Welcome back to another edition of my Top 25 Ballot Breakdown, though I know it’s one day later than usual. I’ll go through each of the 25 teams I voted for in my ballot for D3hoops.com on Monday, looking at what I’ve seen and in some places, why I moved a team up or down by a significant amount. As always, my goal is that this analysis helps give you a better idea of why I vote for certain teams, what I’m looking for as a voter, and how that process unfolds each week as I put together my ballot. I consider it a great responsibility to be one of the 25 voters for D3hoops.com’s WBB Top 25 poll, and transparency is important, especially in doing these rankings where there’s no perfect science on assembling a ballot and opinions differ on teams across the board.
» You can check out the Week 6 D3hoops.com Top 25 poll here.
» I mention efficiency ratings throughout my breakdowns. Basically, these are a replication of Ken Pomeroy’s model for D-I MBB efficiency ratings, updated daily by D3Datacast.com. “Adjusted efficiency margin” is telling us the point total over 100 possessions by which the team in question would beat an average team (Average being the middle group of teams in D-III. “Adjusted offensive efficiency” and “adjusted defensive efficiency” is way to analyze how many points a team would score over 100 possessions or how many points a team would give up over 100 possessions when facing an average team. Essentially, this removes some of the challenge of viewing statistics within the context of strength of schedule, analyzing teams on an even playing field against the same baseline.
NYU (12-0): UAA play opened this past weekend and the Violets opened with yet another dominant win, taking down Brandeis (#114 in Massey), 95-41. They’ve now scored 95+ in three straight games, all against teams current in Massey Ratings’ Top 135. Look no further than the team-oriented offensive approach for proof of just how effective and balanced the Violets are on that end of the floor. They currently lead all NCAA divisions in assists per game (23.9) and are shooting 51.9%, making them the lone team in the NCAA with a field goal percentage above 51%.
Scranton (13-0): Of everyone I’ve seen play, I think Scranton would match up best with NYU, and much of that goes back to the level of defense the Lady Royals play. The 82-57 win over a nationally-ranked Elizabethtown squad in Landmark Conference play last week showcased that defensive prowess, especially in forcing ETown into 20 turnovers, which led to 25 points. After starting a bit slow, Scranton held the Blue Jays to a 9-of-27 shooting mark over the final two quarters, and then carried that into Saturday’s 72-45 victory at Susquehanna. Susquehanna is a quality team, likely amongst the top four in the Landmark, yet the Lady Royals had the game won by halftime, leading 49-23 at the intermission. I’m keeping them No. 2 pretty confidently in my ballot, as they continue putting up consistent, and fairly dominant, defensive showings.
UW-Oshkosh (14-0): When I look at the strengths for UW-Oshkosh, what immediately stands out is just how well the Titans play half-court defense. They’re a connected unit on that end of the floor, and it doesn’t seem to be too often that you watch a key position in a game and see an Oshkosh player well out of position. Because of that, they don’t force a ton of turnovers, but they do force opponents deep into the shot clock, causing off-balance and difficult mid-range shots pretty consistently. I don’t think the gap between UWO and Illinois Wesleyan is very wide at all, but UWO’s defensive ability translates against virtually every opponent out there, as we’ve seen through both non-conference and WIAC play. UWO isn’t necessarily going to light up the scoreboard offensively, but they also don’t rely as heavily on forcing turnovers and running in transition, something that, when looking deep into the tournament with top-tier point guards, becomes a lot more difficult to do. Oshkosh is the lone remaining team in WIAC play still undefeated just two weeks in, having beaten both Eau Claire and Platteville last week, moving to 3-0.
Illinois Wesleyan (15-0): IWU stays at No. 4 in my ballot, and the Titans remain amongst my top-tier teams when I look at things on the national landscape. As we saw in the 80-75 win over North Central (IL) last Saturday, they got to the paint early and often, scoring 50 of their 80 points there, and scored 26 points off NCC’s 20 turnovers. It seems that’s the key to success for IWU; take advantage of gaps in the defense by driving hard and scoring inside, and create havoc with pressure on the defensive end. They do it about as well as anyone in the country, and the athleticism you see throughout the rotation makes IWU a tough team to even keep pace. The ability to play fast is definitely a strength, and when they fully utilize that, it results in the strong resume we currently see, with 10 wins over Massey Top 100 teams.
Smith (12-1): Yes, there’s the loss to Mass-Dartmouth. But everything else seems indicate that Smith is one of the best teams in the country right now. Just look at the numbers from the 70-39 win over Springfield in NEWMAC action last Saturday. 30 forced turnovers? Four of their last five opponents held to four assists or fewer? Outscoring opponents by 26.2 points? All of that points to the Pioneers being on the path of another memorable season. Once again, Lynn Hersey has figured out how to put forth a starting lineup of three brand-new starters and turn them into a Top 10 team by early January. That’s pretty exceptional.
Whitman (12-1): This came down to Bowdoin vs Whitman, and ultimately, I leaned in favor of the Blues, who continue to quietly dominate out on the West Coast. We probably won’t see just how good they are until March, but watching them right now, a lot of boxes are checked when you look for characteristics of typical national contenders. Next to Mass-Dartmouth, the Blues are probably the most experienced team in the country, starting five seniors. They play a physical style of basketball, defend at a high level (12th in D3 in scoring defense), and have two of the top scorers in Region 10 in Korin Baker and Carly Martin. Their average margin of victory through four games in NWC play? 32 points.
Bowdoin (13-0): The big question a few weeks ago was how Bowdoin would fare against NESCAC opponents, having played a relatively weak non-conference slate. As it has turned out, the Polar Bears have kept on rolling, picking up victories over Tufts and Connecticut College this past weekend. I’ve said it before, but Sydney Jones is the unquestioned frontrunner for NESCAC Player of the Year at this point, based on what she does on both ends of the floor for Bowdoin. Over the course of Bowdoin’s two wins last week, she put up 37 points, grabbed 17 rebounds, dished out 11 assists, and had six steals. As long as she keeps playing well, and the rest of Bowdoin’s rotation steps up around her, Bowdoin will be hard to beat, even with the NESCAC being fairly strong.
Gustavus Adolphus (13-0): The Gusties are still undefeated, and now 6-0 in the MIAC. The toughest part of the league slate is still ahead, but it’s hard to think that Gustavus doesn’t have a decent shot to run the table, even with the MIAC being better than it was last year. 5 players average above 8.5 PPG for the Gusties right now, and it’s really been the balance and contributions from multiple players that make Gustavus such a difficult matchup. I moved them up one spot this week, though I’m still a couple spots lower on the Gusties than the actual poll.
WashU (10-2): I initially dropped the Bears after hitting a mid-season skid and losing at UW-Platteville. But it’d be hard to watch last Saturday’s 72-45 win over a nationally-ranked Chicago team and not be inclined to move WashU up by a decent amount. They slid up four spots in my ballot as a result, absolutely controlling Chicago in every area; +13 on the boards, shot 50% to Chicago’s 26.7%, and had 42 points in the paint to Chicago’s 16. All of that points towards WashU being firmly in that No. 2 spot in the UAA. Jessica Brooks leads the charge, with Lexy Harris, Hope Drake, and Sidney Rogers all right there contributing as well. We’ll get to see WashU in its second Top 25 matchup in conference play this Sunday, hosting Carngie Mellon.
Trine (12-2): The win over Hope said a lot. I know Trine has had its bumps in the road so far, but the Thunder look like a complete team at this point, way more than they did early in the season. Both losses have come against Top 15 competition, and the more I watch Trine as of late, the more I like how they stack up nationally. Andy Rang does a tremendous job of putting his team in the right spots schematically, and that carries over to the players themselves, who just make smart plays, limit turnovers, and attack the boards consistently. They win by committee and as you know, I put a lot of emphasis on programs that can spread out the scoring and who make plays on the defensive end. Trine does that, and it’s put them in a very spot at this point in the year.
Hope (11-3): Hope was right there with Trine on Saturday afternoon. On the road, against a well-connected conference opponent, and the Flying Dutch were right there. I think we’re seeing a Hope squad that has taken some losses as the result of playing good competition, but continues to be better for it, especially with the talented freshmen getting quality minutes against that level of opponent. Anna and Leah Richards have been amongst the best freshmen in the country, and Maddie Petroelje is finding more of a rhythm too. Hope isn’t completely there yet, but the Flying Dutch are well on their way. This is going to be a dangerous team here in a couple months, because they’re already playing at the level of a Top 15 team.
Christopher Newport (16-1): It’s hard to know exactly where CNU stands in the big scheme of things considering we’ve seen the Captains against some weaker competition for a few weeks now, and they’ve simultaneously dealt with multiple injuries. But the positive is that it’s given us a chance to see players like freshman Emma O’Connor, who had 16 points against Marymount last week. The depth is continuing to get stronger for the Captains, and I like to see that. The post play has been a welcome addition to CNU’s guard-heavy actions, as Sydney Sherman and O’Connor have really emerged as reliable contributors over the last several weeks.
UW-Stout (11-3): Big jump for the Blue Devils here. I feel pretty confident with it, too. Their lone WIAC loss is to Oshkosh on the road, and the win at Whitewater stood out in a big way on Saturday. Now that Stout is fully healthy, this is a team capable of a lot, regaining the form that carried the Blue Devils to a Sweet 16 appearance in last year’s tournament. The ball movement around the perimeter is precise, the transition offense is impressive, and when Stout finds gaps in the opposing defense, the dribble-drive action from Raegan Sorensen and others is nearly unstoppable. Stout won the paint points at Whitewater, 42-26, and that ended up being a critical aspect of the Blue Devils’ 76-65 road win. I never dropped Stout out of my ballot, because I always expected a surge to happen once Sorensen and Lexi Wagner returned to the floor. Indeed, it seems like Stout is becoming the team everyone expected to see going back to the preseason.
Ohio Wesleyan (12-2): I don’t know, but the two-game losing skid to Capital and Rhode Island College seems to be in the rear view mirror for OWU. Watching the way they dominated Wittenberg last Saturday, it looked like the team I saw in Elizabethtown on the opening weekend of the season. Kasey Schipfer scored 34 and OWU was dynamic on offense, winning a fifth-straight game, 77-59. Efficiency ratings are a good indicator of where a team stacks up nationally, especially when trying to compare programs from strong leagues vs weaker leagues and those with one-sided wins over low-tier opponents against those that have had less success against a stronger schedule. And OWU ranks very well in that aspect, No. 6 nationally in efficiency margin, and No. 7 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. I ended up moving OWU back up six spots in this week’s ballot.
UW-Whitewater (11-3): Significant drop here from No. 8 to No. 15. Truthfully, I’ve thought about dropping UW-Whitewater for a little while now. But I wanted to give them the benefit of the doubt, get into WIAC play, then seriously evaluate. And an 0-2 week this past week wasn’t going to cut it. UW-Stevens Point and UW-Stout are both high-quality teams. And UWW is not a bad team by any means. But there are some deficiencies that showed up through non-conference play and have continued into WIAC play. Kacie Carollo is still one of the best pure scorers in the WIAC, without question, but she can’t win games alone in that league. UWW has struggled offensively in a number of games, and we saw that twice this past week, as well as in the narrow win over UW-River Falls. Now, the defense has gotten better, and UWW is still a very dangerous team in one of the best leagues in the country. But they’re not quite Top 10 caliber at this point.
Elizabethtown (11-2): A loss to Scranton on the road is understandable. I dropped the Blue Jays two spots, but really just to make room for Ohio Wesleyan and UW-Stout to move up. ETown looks like a tournament team to me, and if watch the road wins over Catholic and Susquehanna, they certainly played like it in those two key Landmark matchups. They’ll get another chance at Scranton later on, as well as rematches with Catholic and Susquehanna, all at home. DaniRae Renno has stepped into more of a scoring role this year as compared to last year, averaging 12.4 PPG along with 7.3 RPG. Summer McNulty keeps putting up consistent offensive numbers as well, which has made ETown the third-best team in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Gettysburg (13-1): The Bullets have put together a solid resume, still holding that lone loss to Williams (which came in Florida) and wins over Randolph-Macon, Messiah, Susquehanna, and now, Johns Hopkins. I moved them ahead of JHU after the 54-44 win on Saturday, in which they locked down on defense and held JHU to a shooting percentage of 29%. With Mackenzie Szlosek out since mid-November, it’s been tough for Gettysburg to fill that void. That is especially true on the offensive end, it seems, but defensively, they’ve done well with keeping a strong identity. They’re 16th in D3 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and held three of their last four opponents below 50 points.
Wartburg (13-2): Another big drop for a team that was in my Top 10 in mid-December. Wartburg just hasn’t been able to shake this lull, though the Knights are still winning. But for example, beating 1-13 Nebraska Wesleyan by just 12 (and trailing after Q1) is not a good sign from a team in the national conversation. It seems maybe the graduation of point guard Macy Harris has had more of an effect than I initially expected, as Wartburg is turning it over frequently, leading to more stagnant offense. Against NWU, the Knights were -5 in turnover margin, and on the season, have a turnover margin of just 1.5. Like every team in my Top 25, I still feel confident that Wartburg deserves to here and is, talent-wise, one of the 25 best teams in the country. But performance-wise, I had to drop the Knights a bit at this point, though there’s a solid chance they’ll rise back up as we get closer to March.
Baldwin Wallace (12-1): I like what Baldwin Wallace has done, and at this point, the Yellow Jackets seem to be the clear favorites in the OAC title race. I definitely have BW lower than a lot of voters, and seven spots below where they are in the poll. I’ve gone back and forth on whether to raise them higher and if so, how high. Wins over Trine and Carnegie Mellon certainly highlight the resume, whose only blemish is a loss to Washington & Jefferson. That being said, they haven’t necessarily been overwhelming, aside from the 19-point win over CMU. A lot of wins have come relatively narrowly, such as wins over La Roche, Ohio Northern, and Wilmington. BW is very much on the verge of jumping up a few spots, but I want to see a little more before I put the Yellow Jackets ahead of Wartburg or Elizabethtown.
Catholic (12-1): Here’s another team that might be able to go higher in my ballot, but there wasn’t much room to really move them up. That said, I like seeing Catholic so high in efficiency margin — No. 9 nationally — led by the fourth-best adjusted defensive efficiency. Wins over Messiah and Vassar stand out amongst the Cardinals’ recent results, and I want to see how the improved version of Catholic (compared to November) stacks up against ETown in that second meeting on Feb. 5. We also have the first edition of Catholic/Scranton in this season on Saturday, which should provide some more insight on where Catholic stacks up within the Landmark race.
Johns Hopkins (9-3): I have mixed feelings on JHU, who I slid back 5 spots from Week 5. Yes, 3 losses is a lot when you’re looking at the 25 best teams, and there’s plenty of teams with fewer losses knocking on the door to my ballot right now. But this isn’t purely about wins and losses, and while resume is part of what factors into my Top 25, it goes beyond that. JHU has the talent on the roster to be much better than what they’re showing, and the pieces are there to make the Blue Jays dangerous. The offense —or a lack of it— continues to be something that is holding them back, though I think Monday night’s 70-36 win over Mary Washington (in which JHU shot 46.6%) is evidence that those offensive struggles aren’t permanent.
Coe (12-2): Here’s another team that took a loss in conference play last week, falling to a very underrated Luther team at home. I’m not going to base my entire opinion of Coe on one game, especially against such a familiar opponent, though the Kohawks definitely have some room to improve on the defensive end. On the flip side, I think Coe’s offense might be the most dangerous in the A-R-C, between Caydee Kirkham, Ellie Wisner, and Taylor Brunson. I want to see how they play Dubuque tonight, before actually dropping them off my ballot, as I still really like their resume, highlighted by that neutral court win over UW-Platteville.
Carnegie Mellon (11-1): The Tartans still have just one loss—to Baldwin Wallace—this entire season, and the real test has now begun: the UAA schedule. CMU is right there in contention at the top league from the looks of it, certainly not somewhere that is familiar for this program. They had some trouble pulling away from Case Western Reserve in their UAA opener on Saturday, winning 69-63, after going down 19-8 in the first 10 minutes. We get a very good look at how CMU stacks up within its league this week, as the Tartans make the trip to Chicago on Friday and WashU on Sunday; two top-quality tests. The performance in those two games could lead to a big jump for CMU in my ballot, or a little bit of a further drop. We’ll see. They held steady in ballot from Week 5 to Week 6.
Colorado College (11-2): It wasn’t the best of road trips for the Tigers, who took a loss at Texas Lutheran on Sunday in a game that saw CC end up with a -12 turnover margin. But TLU is a hard place to play, especially with the travel involved for CC in SCAC play, not to mention the Bulldogs being a contender within that league. One of the reasons CC has stayed at the bottom of my ballot for the last few weeks is because we haven’t seen the Tigers really look fantastic in a true road game setting, having also skirted past St. Thomas (TX) a few weeks ago in Houston. They now entire back-to-back weekends of home conference games, but that won’t be easy as a red-hot McMurry team comes to town on Sunday. That game will be key for CC’s standing within my ballot.
UW-Stevens Point (12-2): It went back and forth for quite a while on this last spot. Hardin-Simmons continues to sit right there. As does McMurry. And ETBU. UWSP went 1-1 in WIAC play this past week, so you have to weigh that as well. There was no perfect answer, even as I’ve seen all four teams play several times already this season. I ultimately leaned in favor of UWSP, who is at least 10 spots ahead of the other three in efficiency margin and holds arguably the best win of the group, with last week’s 68-57 win over UW-Whitewater. The Pointers have a fairly strong core, led by Alexa Thomson (15.9 PPG, 7.9 RPG). Maija Rice has been stellar in the backcourt, Gabby Gawlitta is a force in the frontcourt, and as a team, UWSP rebounds incredibly well. In fact, within conference play, UWSP’s rebounding margin of 12.3 is +7.3 ahead of UW-Eau Claire, No. 2 in that stat category. Again, that’s only through 3 WIAC games, but they’ve faced good competition in that stretch (Eau Claire, Whitewater, La Crosse). No. 25 will probably be up for grabs again this week, with HSU and ETBU playing tomorrow night and McMurry getting a great opportunity at CC on Sunday. UWSP travels to UW-Stout on Saturday in a massive conference duel for the Pointers as well.
Biggest difference between my ballot and the poll: UW-Stout (+8), Hope (+8), Trine (+7), Elizabethtown (-6), Baldwin Wallace (-7), Gettysburg (-7)
Teams unranked in my ballot that were ranked in the poll: Hardin-Simmons (#14), Washington & Lee (#20), Chicago (#24)
Teams ranked in my ballot that were unranked in the poll: Coe, UW-Stevens Point, Colorado College