Top 25 Ballot Breakdown: Week 5 (Jan. 7, 2025)
A look at the 25 teams I voted for in my latest ballot for D3hoops.com
Welcome back to another edition of my Top 25 Ballot Breakdown. I’ll go through each of the 25 teams I voted for in my ballot for D3hoops.com yesterday, looking at what I’ve seen and in some places, why I moved a team up or down by a significant amount. As always, My hope each week is that this helps give you a better idea of why I vote for certain teams, what I’m looking for as a voter, and how that process unfolds each week as I put together my ballot. I consider it a great responsibility to be one of the 25 voters for D3hoops.com’s WBB Top 25 poll, and transparency is important to me, especially in doing these rankings where there’s no perfect science on assembling a ballot.
» You can check out the Week 5 D3hoops.com Top 25 poll here.
NYU (11-0): Nothing has changed. NYU remains my No. 1. The Violets have put up 100+ points in three of their last four games, and are outscoring opponents by 47.1 PPG. They remain No. 1 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. It’s no surprise that 24 of the 25 ballots have NYU in the top spot.
Scranton (11-0): The Lady Royals move up to No. 2, passing both Illinois Wesleyan and UW-Oshkosh. All three in that group are elite, and there’s no question about it. Finding differentiating factors amongst the three is particularly tough, as all have Final Four potential. But I ended up bumping Scranton to No. 2 as I watched the Lady Royals dominate in a win over Bethel (MN) in Florida and continue maintaining incredibly high efficiency numbers through their 11-0 start. Behind NYU, no team in the country has been more efficient on both ends of the floor consistently than Scranton, as they rank No. 2 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Sure, Scranton has a lower strength of schedule compared to other top teams in my ballot, but that’s where efficiency ratings are especially valuable, looking at a team’s current performance through the lens of what they’d be expected to produce (both offensively and defensively) against an average team. Right now, Scranton doesn’t have a resume that jumps off the page, but all you have to do is tune in to watch the Lady Royals play and you’ll see why they are No. 2 in my ballot. The 84-42 win over Bethel is super insightful, considering Bethel is a projected top 3 team in the MIAC and that contest was played on a neutral floor. Defense travels, and Scranton’s elite defense continues performing at tremendous levels, leading the country in both scoring defense and field goal percentage defense. I’m more inclined to favor top-tier defensive teams over top-tier offensive teams because defense tends to be a more controllable (and consistent) aspect. I had the Lady Royals way too low to start the season, but we’re seeing the effects of returning 11 of their top 12 from last year’s Elite Eight team.
UW-Oshkosh (12-0): The Titans added to their record with a quality 67-57 win over UW-Stout last Saturday in their WIAC opener, and this team continues to impress. Since we last voted, Oshkosh picked up wins over both Trine and Stout, which kept them at No. 3 in my ballot. They’re not going to light up the scoreboard offensively, but as we saw against Stout and Trine, the Titans are very capable of putting together scoring runs in key stretches, and not having one go-to scorer makes them a difficult matchup defensively. There’s also an under-recognized aspect of Oshkosh’s offensive skill set: discipline. The Titans seldom turn the ball over, and that goes a long way when most of their games are in the 50s and 60s. In fact, Oshkosh leads the country in fewest turnovers/game as the only program in Division III averaging fewer than 10 turnovers (9.9). That is huge. Combined with their exceptional defense (No. 2 in D-III in scoring defense), beating Oshkosh is a tall task. You can’t force them into a bunch of turnovers to generate transition offense, and scoring consistently against the Titans in the half-court happens rarely.
Illinois Wesleyan (13-0): If we’re ranking based on resume alone, IWU is probably No. 1. It’s not often you see a team face nine Massey Top 100 opponents in the season’s first two months and go 9-0 against that group. What the Titans have done is impressive, and I never considered moving them any lower than No. 4. In truth, moving Scranton up was more about rewarding Scranton’s strength last month than knocking down IWU for a few challenging performances against Trinity (TX) and Wheaton. IWU remains firmly in my elite group of teams, and it seems plausible that the Titans may run the table in the CCIW this season. Only time will tell.
Whitman (10-1): I moved Whitman up in my ballot and there was a lot of back-and-forth on whether the Blues should go all the way up to No. 5. After missing the NCAA Tournament last season and having played fewer “marquee” matchups so far this year, it’s taken Whitman some time to gain national attention. But the Blues are 10-0 against D3 competition (their lone loss came to Lewis Clark State, who is No. 13 in NAIA) and beat Puget Sound, 75-48, in their NWC opener on Friday and then took down Pacific Lutheran, 67-33, the following day. Not only are they winning by notable margins, but they’ve done it against a number of quality opponents, including Rochester (#95 in NPI, 74-49), East Texas Baptist (#38 in NPI, 72-51), and Mary Hardin-Baylor (#53 in NPI, 64-50). Beyond stats and resume, Whitman starts five seniors, led by All-American Korin Baker (18.3 PPG, 7.3 RPG) and has a poise about them that brings a key intangible to the table. The chemistry developed by Whitman’s main core over the last few seasons is starting to really pay off and we’ll see what kind of role that continues to play as the Blues progress through their NWC schedule.
Bowdoin (11-0): When Sydney Jones is at her best, Bowdoin is almost unbeatable. And luckily for the Polar Bears, Jones has been playing at a high level all year, more recently putting up 20 points against Denison and grabbing 12 rebounds against NJCU. It’s been good seeing other players step up around her as well, most notably Abbie Quinn and Carly Davey, and that trio gives Bowdoin a reliable source of scoring and rebounding heading into the NESCAC opener at Tufts on Friday.
Smith (10-1): Aside from the Mass-Dartmouth loss, Smith has been pretty good, steadily improving and adding to its non-conference resume. The Pioneers make a six-spot jump from my Week 4 ballot in mid-December to this one, and while some of that is the other results that happened within my Top 15, watching Smith control the game against Roger Williams and blow out MASCAC favorite Bridgewater State on the road gives me a lot of confidence. Their defense keeps getting better, and as in past seasons, it seems head coach Lynn Hersey has her team on an upward trajectory at the perfect point in the year.
UW-Whitewater (11-1): UWW has been a tough team to rank throughout this entire season. They didn’t make it any easier by being put on upset alert at home against UW-River Falls. But that’s the WIAC for you, and UWRF is very good when the 3-point shot is falling. Amongst the positives from that one, Katie Hildebrandt broke through with a 23-point performance in 32 minutes, also grabbing seven rebounds. Having Hildebrandt playing well alongside Kacie Carollo makes UWW that much more dangerous, and for now, I’m going to keep the Warhawks in my Top 10 as a key matchup with UW-Stout looms ahead.
Gustavus Adolphus (11-0): I’ve been cautious with how much I move Gustavus up, as the 11-0 record is solid, but some of the underlying stats make me just a little more hesitant. The 3.7 rebounding margin is a bit concerning, and I don’t know exactly what to think of their “best wins” through the first two months, with UW-Eau Claire and Concordia (MN) being inconsistent and UW-Stout short-handed at the time of that meeting. But the 78-72 win over Colorado College continues to stand out, and overall, Gustavus has established itself well within the national conversation. I moved the Gusties up by three spots this week.
Christopher Newport (14-1): Christopher Newport: The Captains, unsurprisingly, swept the Steel Club Classic at Moravian two weekends ago and added wins over Haverford and Stevenson last week, improving to 14-1. CNU will be favored in every game from here on out until the NCAA Tournament, and overall, I do like what I’ve seen. I won’t put them much higher than No. 10 for now, but when fully healthy, the Captains are Top 10 caliber.
Hope (11-2): The Flying Dutch are on a roll, and yet again, have improved tremendously from the first weekend until now. They’re very much a contender for my Top 10, just based on what I’ve seen watching them play. Hope scores by committee—seven players average 6.0 PPG or better—and that presents some matchup issues. The ability to force turnovers consistently on the defensive end helps as well, and to hold four of their last five opponents below 50 is pretty notable. Calvin played them tough this past Saturday as expected, and now the big focus is on Saturday’s matchup at Trine, yet another road duel against a legit MIAA title contender. It’s likely to be Hope’s biggest test of the MIAA slate.
Wartburg (11-2): The Knights keep slipping further for me. It’s not that I think Wartburg is unworthy of the Top 10—their talent indicates being a Top 10 team—but it’s hard to keep the Knights there based on recent results. It’s one thing to drop two games far from home in Texas, but it’s another to struggle on your home court. WLC and Platteville are talented, no doubt, but the offensive challenges in those games (along with the two in Texas) make you scratch your head a bit. Even the slow start at Simpson was somewhat surprising this past Saturday, as Wartburg trailed at the end of the first quarter and led by just one at the half. So I’ll leave them here for now. I won’t be surprised if we get a situation similar to UW-Stout last year, where they drop for a little while but make their way back once this tough stretch is behind them.
WashU (9-2): I liked seeing the 18-point win over Dickinson followed by a 14-point win over Bridgewater State in Puerto Rico. Those are two solid results, as the Bears now hold a four-game win streak after losing back-to-back games against Illinois Wesleyan and UW-Platteville. I still think WashU is the No. 2 team in the UAA and with Lexy Harris and Jessica Brooks both playing really well, the Bears stay in my Top 15.
Elizabethtown (10-1): We’ll find out a lot about the Blue Jays tomorrow night against Scranton, and for now, I think ETown is very much a Top 15 team. I had them three spots higher than the poll, but the general consensus seems to be more confidence in the Blue Jays, who have now won nine straight. Wins at Arcadia and Rowan certainly stand out amongst their last three opponents, and we’re seeing the team we expected, with balanced scoring and efficient shooting (ETown is No. 3 nationally in offensive efficiency).
Trine (10-2): This is the biggest difference between my last two ballots. My mid-December ballot had Trine amongst my “team to watch”, but on the outside looking in. Now, they’re in my Top 15. In total, I had the Thunder nine spots higher than the poll. I was a little hesitant early on, but when you look at the way they played UW-Oshkosh, losing just 61-54 in a game that was tight all the way through, it says a lot about Trine’s quality. Not only that, but Trine came back the next day to beat a physical Ripon team by 15. Then you throw in the 73-44 win over Mt. St. Joseph (#89 in Massey), and look at the results prior to December, and there’s a very strong case to be made for Trine. I want to emphasize that even as I’m mentioning results here, it wasn’t completely the results that put Trine in my ballot. It’s also their style of play and personnel, with Erin Sherwood stepping up, Sidney Wagner putting up 15.3 PPG, and guards like Katie Tate and Allison Capouch adding depth to the backcourt. Trine will be right in that MIAA title race.
Johns Hopkins (8-2): Had JHU not played as well as they did in Florida against Denison and Vassar, I probably would’ve kept them lower. But both Denison and Vassar are quality teams and while it was tight through the first half of both, JHU took control over the final two quarters. It still doesn’t seem like JHU is quite at the level we had expected they’d be, considering all the key returners from last year’s 26-4 team, but it definitely seems like the Blue Jays are taking steps in the right direction.
Baldwin Wallace (10-1): I still have some reservations about BW, so they’re lower in my ballot compared to the poll. But I pushed them from #25 to #17 as the Yellow Jackets picked up a super impressive 70-51 win at home over previously-undefeated Carnegie Mellon on Dec. 30. That, along with the Trine win, stands out, and the CMU win was as much about BW’s offense as it was getting the victory itself. The Yellow Jackets haven’t been terrific on offense this season, but put up back-to-back 20-point quarters in the second half, pulling away in convincing fashion. Already 4-0 in the OAC, BW is certainly the frontrunner in that league.
Coe (12-1): Coe makes its debut in my ballot, having won 12 straight after dropping the season opener against UW-Oshkosh. Their flaw is a low defensive efficiency, but you wouldn’t have noticed that in last Saturday’s 81-39 win over Central. Coe held Central to three straight single-digit quarters to open the game, and the Kohawk offense was exceptional in that stretch too. They just might be the best offensive team in the A-R-C, led by Taylor Brunson’s 20.8 PPG and shooting 43.9% from the field. Their guard play is impressive, and after putting together a solid 21-6 campaign in 2023-24, Coe is in good position to compete with Wartburg for that league title as the next two months unfold.
Catholic (10-1): I only had Catholic one spot higher than the poll, so I think the majority of the voting panel has a similar thought on the Cardinals. They’ve certainly gotten better as the season has progressed, with big wins over Messiah and Vassar in Florida, and this is the kind of team I expected when I put them high in my preseason ballot. Anna Scoblick, Keegan Douglas, and Carly Mulvaney are all contributing well on both ends of the floor right now, which is key as the Cardinals look to resume Landmark Conference play.
Ohio Wesleyan (11-2): Amongst OWU’s results within the last month, the 63-38 win over Ohio Northern is the most impressive. I often look to identify trends in teams before tuning into a particular game, and entering that one on Dec. 31, it seemed OWU had fallen into a bit of an offensive lull, contributing to losses against both Capital and Rhode Island College. But against ONU, they took better care of the ball, shot it more consistently, and surged down the stretch against a very solid ONU defense. Even more impressive, the Battling Bishops maintained the defensive edge that was seen in Puerto Rico and against Principia the previous day, holding an opponent below 40 for the second time this season. If OWU continues using all of its offensive weapons (Macy Miller, Kasey Schipfer, Lauren Denison, Elizabeth Homan) and maintains a consistent defensive presence, they’ll be tough to beat in the NACC.
UW-Stout (9-3): I only voted for one three-loss team this week: Stout. Here’s the thing about the Blue Devils. They’re just now getting healthy, and before Saturday’s loss at Oshkosh, had won five straight. That included a huge road win at Bethel on New Year’s Eve, and with the way Bethel has been playing, a victory of that caliber stands out on Stout’s resume. This is a huge week ahead, with Stout hosting UW-River Falls before traveling to UW-Whitewater, and I want to see how the Blue Devils handle these next two WIAC games before really moving them too high or too low within my ranking. This is a team capable of a lot, but one that is still finding its rhythm with everyone now back on the floor.
Gettysburg (11-1): Gettysburg was undefeated the last time we voted, but took a loss to Williams back before Christmas. Really, that didn’t change my approach to Gettysburg much at all, as they have certainly been a different team without Mackenzie Szlosek on the floor, but are still playing at a Top 25 level. I think we saw that on Saturday, as they overpowered a solid Susquehanna team, 75-52, at home, going on a 20-6 run in the second quarter. Alayna Arnolie continues to lead the offense (16.0 PPG) and I feel good with keeping Gettysburg towards the bottom of my ballot, but right in the mix amongst my third tier of ranked teams.
Colorado College (10-1): Congratulations to the Tigers, who made their way into the Top 25 for the first time in the history of the D3hoops.com poll. I’ve been voting for CC for a few weeks now, and didn’t move them from where they were in my last ballot. They’re a team that I think could definitely move up a handful of spots as SCAC play moves ahead, especially after they dominated against Susquehanna and beat SUNY New Paltz by 15 at the D3hoops.com Classic. There really aren’t any significant flaws on their resume, and the talent is there for CC to make an NCAA Tournament run, with Zoe Tomlinson and Kayla Mackel leading the way. I do want to see how they handle the travel challenges that come with the SCAC schedule (every weekend on the road involves a flight), as that gets grueling and they’ve only played three true road games so far.
Carnegie Mellon (10-1): CMU slid back two spots, but stayed in my ballot. Baldwin Wallace remains the Tartans lone loss and overall, I really like what I’ve seen from CMU. Hiring Kathy McConnell-Miller as head coach helped turn this program around fast, going from an 11-14 season last year to 10-1 heading into UAA play. Now, the UAA schedule is a different ballgame and one that CMU will have to navigate in order to stay ranked, but they certainly are capable of doing so. Catherine Or (17.4 PPG) has established herself amongst the best guards in the UAA, and CMU’s defense remains a strength, ranking second in the UAA in both steals and turnover margin.
Chicago (10-1): This was probably the toughest decision to make this week. Chicago or Washington & Lee for the 25th spot. I ended up leaning towards Chicago based on the Maroons going 3-1 vs Massey Top 50 competition, compared to W&L being just 1-1 and having taken a 73-62 loss to Concordia (MN) two weeks ago. There wasn’t a clear choice and there’s still a lot that I like about W&L, especially within a tight ODAC race. Chicago struggled in California, and I took that into account as well. I felt more confident with what I’ve seen from Chicago, but I’ll be watching both of these teams closely (as well as several others I briefly considered for the 25th spot) in the week ahead. Chicago gets WashU in its UAA opener and W&L hosts Ferrum, who will also be a tough out within ODAC play.