Top 25 Ballot Breakdown: Week 5
Better late than never, right? Hope everyone is having a great week! Thought I’d publish my Top 25 ballot breakdown for Monday’s Top 25 poll as I do each week…just two days later than normal. No real surprises in the poll itself this week, and we saw UW-Oshkosh and WashU get into the rankings, while Tufts and UW-Stevens Point dropped out. Bowdoin was the biggest mover in terms of increasing ranking, going from #19 to #15. Millikin dropped back seven spots from #11 to #18.
Here’s how I saw the Top 25 this week. As always, I am just one voter on a panel of 25. So there are 24 other opinions on this, and 24 other people who may see things differently than me. But here are some of my thoughts on the teams in my ballot…
1-NYU (12-0): The Violets remain in the top spot of my ballot after taking down Brandeis in their lone game of the week, and their UAA opener. The 103-52 victory is just the beginning of a gauntlet of a conference schedule for NYU ahead.
2-Transylvania (13-0): Transy has now won 46 straight games, having racked up two more home wins in HCAC play in the first week of 2024. The Pioneers defeated Earlham and Anderson, and while there is a case for Transylvania, UW-Whitewater, and Rhode Island College to be No. 2, Transylvania continues to be very impressive.
3-UW-Whitewater (13-0): Into WIAC play, the Warhawks took down a very good UW-Oshkosh team on the road Wednesday, before defeating UW-Eau Claire on Saturday. Whitewater continues to be the frontrunner in a very deep WIAC title race, and has a slight edge over Rhode Island College, ranked just ahead of RIC in efficiency and No. 1 in Massey. Eye test-wise, I think the margin between RIC and UW–Whitewater is almost too close to call.
4-Rhode Island College (14-0): The Anchorwomen continue to find exceptional success, having scored a big win last week over UMass-Dartmouth, the No. 2 contender in the LEC in the opinions of most. RIC followed that up with a win over Plymouth State, keeping its perfect record intact.
5-Illinois Wesleyan (11-2): I’ve made the case for IWU week and week again, and while it may be considered debatable to have a two-loss team inside the Top 5, I feel very confident with the Titans at this spot. In their lone win this past week, they led a solid Augustana team 34-15 on the road after the first quarter, and emerged with a 98-59 victory. It was a statement win in CCIW play, and this team continues to click. Losses to Hope and UW-Whitewater by single digits are points in IWU’s favor in both cases, as those games were played in November and saw the Titans perform at a very high level. The quality and strength of IWU’s schedule, and the Titans’ record against that schedule, is the driving force in this ranking.
6-Gustavus Adolphus (11-1): Concordia-Moorhead challenged Gustavus all the way through last Monday, but the Gusties pulled out the win, 64-60. That was a quality result within the MIAC schedule for Gustavus and I thought the second-half performance and execution was very strong. The Gusties followed that up by beating Bethel for the second time in three weeks, winning their fourth straight.
7-Hope (13-1): The Flying Dutch defeated Trine, 75-74, in their lone game of the week, earning their third win over a Massey Top 25 team. I couldn’t have been more wrong about Hope in this preseason, as the Flying Dutch have seemingly met every test and won in just about every case, the only exception being a road loss to Wisconsin Lutheran. I like the direction Hope is headed in, and the Flying Dutch have found different ways to win, which is one of the marks of a Top 10 team. There’s no question that Hope belongs in the Top 10, in my opinion.
8-Christopher Newport (15-1): CNU won at Rowan in a solid road victory before surpassing the century mark against D2 Cheney University of Pennsylvania. The 2-0 week saw CNU further extend its home winning streak to 45 games, and the Captains head into a high-quality home matchup against Marymount tonight. Things seem to be clicking for CNU at this point, and the Captains have built up a strong resume that includes wins over Emory, Elizabethtown, and Whitman. Just like Hope, I have zero doubt that CNU belongs in the Top 10.
9-Scranton (12-1): The Lady Royals took their first loss of the season last Wednesday, falling on the road at Elizabethtown, 67-64. ETown has one of the toughest road environments in the Landmark Conference, and it was an evenly-contested matchup in which ETown made a handful of big plays down the stretch. I dropped Scranton four spots with the loss, but mostly, that was more CNU, Hope, Gustavus, and IWU moving up, rather than Scranton moving down. Resume-wise, Scranton has just one Massey Top 100 win, and that came in overtime at DeSales. Scranton also came in at No. 9 in the poll, so I think most voters were on the same page with the Lady Royals this week.
10-Emory (11-1): Emory opened UAA with a victory over Rochester in which standout guard Claire Brock surpassed the career 1,000-point mark, and while we have not seen as many quality results (in terms of Top 100 wins), Emory holds wins over a pair of D3hoops.com Top 25 opponents, in Washington & Lee and Hardin-Simmons. The experience level on this team with serve Emory well through the gauntlet of the UAA schedule.
11-Johns Hopkins (11-1): I really like what JHU brings to the table. The Blue Jays’ only loss is to top-ranked NYU, and besides that, they beat both WashU and Chicago on a neutral court, which is notable. The Gettysburg win in conference play is also a Massey Top 50 win, giving JHU a resume certainly worthy of the No. 11 spot. JHU has won 10 straight, after beating Ursinus in Centennial Conference action on Saturday.
12-Wartburg (13-1): The Knights got past Dubuque, 53-50, in overtime on the road last week, and while they were on “upset alert” throughout that contest, Dubuque is a solid contender within the ARC. Rather than a negative result, I saw it as a tough conference road win, especially considering Dubuque is a Massey Top 100 team, which raised Wartburg’s number of Massey Top 100 wins to five. Road wins in conference play are tough to come by, and overall, I think Wartburg held fairly steady in its placement within the national landscape. It was a 2-0 week for the Knights, as they followed up the Dubuque win with a 74-39 win over Nebraska Wesleyan.
13-Millikin (11-3): Millikin’s loss to North Central came as a surprise, as the Big Blue fell on the road, 84-78. Hence, my point on Wartburg’s win over Dubuque. A win is a win on the road in conference play. I do have to credit NCC a little bit, as I believe the Cardinals are an underrated team within the CCIW this year, having also pushed IWU into overtime at home earlier in the league schedule. For Millikin, the loss certainly damages its Top 25 resume, and I dropped the Big Blue three spots. They ended the week with a win at Carthage, and right now, I am looking at this…Milllikin’s three losses have all come on the road. Two of them came against current Massey Top 15 teams (Hope and Carroll), and the other to NCC (#101 Massey). They also hold key road wins at both UW-Platteville and DePauw. Plus, the talent on the roster between Elyce Knudsen and Bailey Coffman is tremendous. I think the middle portion of my ballot is a fair spot for a team of this caliber.
14-UW-Oshkosh (10-3): The Titans went on the road to UW-Stout and won, jumping out to an early lead against the Blue Devils en route to a 63-58 victory. That came on the heels of a 79-71 loss to UW-Whitewater, for a 1-1 week overall. As I wrote last week, one of UWO’s strengths has been its ability to win on the road, as the Titans played 11 straight games away from their home court before the true home opener against Whitewater last week. What we’ve seen from UWO defensively is incredibly impressive. I’ve watched several of the nation’s best defenses on film this season, and the Titans stand out. UWO is currently allowing 48.4 points per game, and has won six of its last seven.
15-UW-Stout (11-2): A little bit of a head-to-head situation here, UW-Stout falls behind UW-Oshkosh, but I only dropped Stout two spots, as the Blue Devils also recorded a 1-1 week. A dominant road win over UW-Stevens Point, #25 in the D3hoops.com Top 25 last week, saw Stout pull away in a huge first half, winning 82-53. The loss at home to UW-Oshkosh was tough, as Stout dug themselves into a deep hole early, and fought back, but just couldn’t completely get over the hump. Losses will happen in WIAC play, so there was no real reason to drop Stout all that much. The Blue Devils face UW-La Crosse this evening, before prepping for a huge road duel at Whitewater on Saturday.
16-Bowdoin (12-1): Talk about teams on the rise. Bowdoin just continues to win, having beaten Chicago, 81-67, on a neutral court two weeks ago. A four-point win over Husson at the beginning of last week was a bit of a surprise, and opened NESCAC play with a solid 15-point victory over Trinity (CT). The win over Trinity gave Bowdoin its third Massey Top 50 win of the season, and I expect the Polar Bears to make a serious push towards the NESCAC title in what will be a wide-open league. Currently, Bowdoin is the highest-ranked NESCAC team in my ballot.
17-Hardin-Simmons (12-2): The Cowgirls did not have to travel far for this week’s lone game, making a four-mile trip across Abilene for their final matchup at McMurry as conference opponents. As I’ve noted in the past, McMurry is an improved team this season, and entered this matchup undefeated in league play. But HSU emerged with an 87-81 victory, as Parris Parmer had 29 points in the win for HSU. I had the Cowgirls lower than where they ended up in the poll (#14), but I definitely think HSU is a firm Top 20 team.
18-WashU (8-4): I understand the debate with WashU. Four losses, even at this point in the season, certainly detracts from Top 25 interest. But WashU is on a five-game win streak, and the return of Jessica Brooks to the lineup has elevated the Bears from a good team to a great team. WashU’s last two wins have come on the road at Wartburg and Chicago, and the Bears have plenty of momentum heading into UAA play. I fully expect WashU, who is currently #25 in the poll, to be a Top 20 team by the season’s end. A home matchup against Emory is on tap, and we shall see if WashU continues its win streak against yet another league opponent.
19-Amherst (11-1): The Mammoths got past Williams on Friday, in their first Massey Top 100 win of the season. Then came a 76-67 home loss to Middlebury in a game in which Middlebury controlled the lead from start to finish. It was not a great performance for Amherst, and unlike other teams that lost this week, the Mammoths do not have a quality result to point to in light of the defeat. In other words, there is not much to justify Amherst being ranked with a fairly one-sided loss to the best team the Mammoths have played this season. Eye test-wise, Amherst is a solid team and has a strong record, and there is no reason to drop the Mammoths all that far after one loss. But you have to defend your home court, and especially with a weak non-conference schedule. Up next for Amherst is Tufts and Bates as NESCAC play progresses.
20-Whitman (11-3): Whitman went 2-0 in NWC play on the week, defeating Whitworth and Lewis & Clark, raising the Blues’ win total to double digits. The NWC is a tough league to figure out this year, with Whitman, Pacific, Willamette, and Puget Sound all in the mix. So far, I think Whitman has been the only team to separate itself, and the 85-51 neutral court win over Wartburg continues to help Whitman’s resume significantly. The wins over Pacific and Colorado College also aid in Whitman’s Top 20 ranking for me. The poll ended up with Whitman at #19.
21-Mary Hardin-Baylor (13-1): UMHB extended its winning streak by two games to 13 this past week, and the 19-point victory over UT-Dallas was a nice data point for The Cru. A Top 100 Massey team, UTD has been a tough out throughout this season, but UMHB rolled to a solid victory in yet another dominant performance. This week will be telling, as UMHB faces Hardin-Simmons and McMurry in back-to-back games on the road. Two huge matchups within the American Southwest Conference title race.
22-Catholic (13-0): Still undefeated, Catholic defeated Lycoming and Drew last week, staying perfect on the season. A strong contender in the Landmark Conference, I am interested to see how Catholic fares in what will be a three-way race for the title with both Scranton and Elizabethtown. The Cardinals are #24 in the Massey Ratings, and at this point, it has been tough to gauge Catholic’s placement within my ballot. I am confident the Cardinals are a Top 25 team, but the ordering of the ranking is difficult. We have not seen Catholic tested a great deal against a Top 100-type team, and not at all against a Top 50 team yet. To their credit, the Cardinals rank 19th in D3Datacast’s efficiency ratings.
23-Smith (8-2): I dropped Smith out last week in favor of MIT, and it was a move that proved to be the wrong one. Smith was far-and-away the better team in a head-to-head matchup of the two early last week, as the Pioneers won, 82-54. Smith then battled a very good Springfield team into overtime, and again walked away with a win, as the Pioneers jumped back into my ballot. It will certainly be an interesting race in the NEWMAC, as Babson, Smith, and Springfield all have a shot at the title, though Smith is the obvious frontrunner at this point.
24-Loras (12-2): With an eight-game win streak, Loras is in a good spot, having beaten Buena Vista and Central in conference action last week. Starting with the win over Elizabethtown in Puerto Rico before Christmas, the Duhawks have started to figure some things out and are catching fire now. They don’t play Wartburg again until January 31, and while the ARC has several competitive teams, it seems the conference championship may come down to those two again. Loras is certainly an improved team from the last meeting against Wartburg in late November, and deserves a Top 25 spot (they were two points outside of the poll this week).
25-SUNY New Paltz (8-2): The wins over Christopher Newport and Middlebury on a neutral court elevated New Paltz’s resume a great deal, and put the Hawks on the radar of quite a few voters. Middlebury’s 2-0 start in NESCAC play makes the win two weeks ago for New Paltz that much more notable, and last week, the Hawks kept their perfect record in SUNYAC play intact with a 72-52 win over SUNY Oneonta.