Top 25 Ballot Breakdown: Week 11 (Feb. 18, 2025)
A look at this week's Top 25 ballot for D3hoops.com and my thoughts on the national landscape of top-tier programs
It’s hard to believe we’ve already reached this point in the season, where the regular season is in its final week (or already over, if you’re the NESCAC) and the NCAA Tournament is fast approaching. As I submitted my Top 25 ballot yesterday, I realized that I’ll have just two more regular season ballots to submit this season. Every season seems to fly by quicker than the previous one.
So without wasting much more time, here’s a look at my Week 11 Top 25 (full ballot is below) and my thoughts on a number of the key changes to my ballot this week. Lots to unpack in this Ballot Breakdown!
Top 5
NYU, Scranton, and Bowdoin remained as my No. 1, No. 2, No. 3. No surprise there. Each took care of business, with NYU and Bowdoin each officially claiming the top spot in their respective leagues. Bowdoin opens the NESCAC Tournament on Saturday, and NYU has three games left in its UAA schedule. Scranton is also on its way to taking the Landmark’s regular season title.
But then came a change at No. 4 and Illinois Wesleyan moved back up. I’ve moved the Titans around more than any other team in my Top 10 this season, but I’ve been trying to get a clear read the entire time. They’ve gone through stretches of struggling, stretches where they looked like an unquestioned Final Four team, and obviously the upset loss at Carthage two weekends ago. I’m not sure how much stock I put into beatdowns of North Park and Millikin, but for what it’s worth, IWU looked very cohesive, averaging 19.5 assists per game and shooting above 47% in both wins.
I also went back and forth on whether to drop UW-Oshkosh by more than one spot after its second loss in WIAC play. UW-La Crosse got the better of the Titans in overtime, 64-56, on Saturday, dropping UWO to 21-2 overall. The Titans aren’t the highest-caliber offensive team, typically more reliant on their defense to win games, but even within the road loss, it’s hard to knock them too much. The WIAC schedule remains as tough as it’s ever been, and road games even more so. As you’ll see here in a minute, I don’t think UW-La Crosse is anywhere close to a pushover, either. The Titans were caught on a day when the 3-point shooting wasn’t there and they turned it over 15 times—fairly uncharacteristic from such a disciplined squad. I’m going to need to see more than one overtime loss to convince me Oshkosh isn’t Top 5 caliber.
The rest of my Top 10
The biggest change in this group came at No. 6, where I moved Trine from No. 10. The Thunder went to Hope, one of the tougher places to win in the country, and won big, 80-63. It marked Hope’s worst home loss (in terms of margin of defeat) since Dec. 15, 2018, when Thomas More went into DeVos and won, 81-61. That’s how difficult it is to take down the Flying Dutch by more than a few points on their home floor, and it speaks to what Trine is capable of this year. The Thunder admittedly haven’t faced the stiffest competition over the last two months, but that’s outside of their control. They’ve shown up in both meetings with Hope, have a nice balance between efficient offense and disciplined defense, and are led by a senior point guard that knows how to get the most out of her teammates. Sidney Wagner was tremendous on Saturday, dishing out 7 assists in addition to her team-high 24 points, and she contributed with 5 steals on the defensive end as well. Wagner is the glue of this team, but between Sierra Hinds, Erin Sherwood, Katie Tate, and others, Trine is continually becoming a squad I believe will make a deep run in the tournament.
Whitman, Smith, Catholic, and UW-Stout round out my Top 10. I opted to keep Smith at No. 8, even after the 10-point home loss to Tufts last Tuesday. I’m concerned about Smith’s lack of quality opponents as of late, and whether the Tufts game may be a precursor to the tournament, but time will tell. Lynn Hersey remains one of the best strategists in D-III, constantly able to get the most out of her players, as we saw in last year’s run to the title game. It does seem like Smith struggles a bit more against teams with above-average guard play, so I’ll be keeping a close eye on that heading into the tournament.
Similarly with Stout, who lost last Wednesday at UW-River Falls, I’m giving the Blue Devils the benefit of the doubt. And like Smith, there are few aspects that concern me with Stout—notably the high turnover numbers in recent weeks—-but I still think their overall personnel and scheme is difficult to beat, as long as they establish their perimeter shooting a little more than they did at River Falls, which opens up the lane for their go-to dribble-drive layups and floaters more often.
From 11 to 15
I’ve got Gustavus Adolphus, Gettysburg, Christopher Newport, Baldwin Wallace, and UW-Whitewater, in that order. Not much changed from last week besides the shuffling of a few teams by a spot or two, except for me dropping Baldwin Wallace back to No. 14.
Let me start by saying that the 22-game win streak is incredible, and this is obviously a team that has figured something out to keep winning in all these one and two-possession ballgames. I’ve watched BW a good amount through OAC play, and there’s a lot that they do well, especially on the defensive end (they rank No. 10 nationally in defensive efficiency). But if I’m going to apply my voting philosophy across the board and keep Randolph-Macon in my bottom five despite a 21-game win streak, I need to be fair with BW as well. A ton of wins is great, but often tells only half of the story. Offensively, BW has not passed the eye test, even more so than Oshkosh or Smith on that end of the floor. The last time they posted a positive assist-to-turnover ratio in a game was Jan. 18 against Marietta, when the Yellow Jackets overcame 20 turnovers with 22 assists.
While that turnover number has slowly been cut down, they still turn it over about 17.7 times per game, and that proves to be a challenge against tougher opponents. John Carroll, for instance, led for a decent portion of its 66-61 loss to BW last Wednesday, as the Yellow Jackets ended up taking 13 fewer shots, in large part due to turning it over 17 times. That’s the one area that makes me hesitant with BW, and feels like a weakness that could be exploited even more down the road. So that’s the explanation on BW at No. 14, but again, don’t think I’m saying that out of disrespect for the job BW has done this year. 22-1 against any schedule is impressive and Cheri Harrer is an exceptional coach.
Moving towards the second half of my ballot
I went Ohio Wesleyan, Hope, Wartburg, Johns Hopkins, and Elizabethtown for my next five. Again, basically no changes besides the order from Week 10 to Week 11. I’ve liked what Wartburg has shown lately, but they won’t be a team that grades out well efficiency-wise this season. They’re still at No. 39 overall, and the A-R-C has been slightly weaker than I’d anticipated. Behind Wartburg, the league has a good amount of parity, yet no other nationally-relevant or NCAA Tournament-caliber teams, which is certainly a deviation from the last several seasons. That has certainly made it more difficult for Wartburg to climb higher in my ballot over the last few weeks.
Johns Hopkins has an 11-game win streak going, and I think the pieces are there for a second weekend tournament run. At the same time, I don’t have them higher because we just haven’t seen them in many convincing performances against good teams as of late, and I’m a little less confident as a result. They’re still one of the premier defensive teams out there, though, and defense travels, especially in the tournament.
Rounding out the final five
I’ve got an interesting group in my last five: an underrated Region 10 program, a 14-9 WIAC team, a program from the upper Midwest, a team with a 21-game win streak, and a NESCAC team that has somehow gone from the bottom of the standings to a surefire at-large NCAA Tournament squad.
To break down in a bit more detail…
East Texas Baptist’s 32-point win over Mary Hardin-Baylor on Saturday spoke to ETBU’s offensive capability. We’ve known about the Tigers’ strength on the defensive end, through holding Millsaps to 49, Wartburg to 47, and Illinois Wesleyan to 66. But when the guard play is at its best, ETBU can torch the nets for four quarters, as they did on Saturday. Madison Hurta might be shooting her way to ASC Freshman of the Year honors, Payton Hicks is a true floor general, and as a team, ETBU averaged 17.0 assists per game over its last four contests. They’re going to have a shot at a Sweet 16 appearance, not that tournament potential plays into my current Top 25 ballot.
UW-La Crosse at No. 22 is for a very good reason. When I watched the Eagles take down No. 5 UW-Oshkosh on Saturday, I started taking a deeper look into UWL’s resume. I’ve watched them plenty this year, but it seems they only get better as time goes on, especially compared to those early 3-point losses against Gustavus Adolphus and Hope. I know people immediately point to the record and ask how 14-9 UWL warrants a Top 25 look. But the Top 25 is A) about 25 individual voting philosophies, and B) about getting the best 25 teams ranked. It’s hard to argue that UWL, who has played 19 Massey Top 100 opponents and beaten two Top 15 teams in the last three weeks, is amongst the most battle-tested teams in the country. Both within the WIAC and outside of it, the Eagles have faced the best the Midwest has to offer, and it’s made them incredibly dangerous. As I said Saturday, if they find a way into the NCAA Tournament, it’ll be as a low seed with a chance for a massive first-weekend upset.
Bethel is at No. 23, and the Royals, at 19-4, are in the midst of one of their best seasons in recent memory. Elly Schmitz is Bethel’s leading scorer, leading rebounder, and a key part of why the Royals are sitting at 15-1 in the MIAC. But I think within that, Colette Duininck gets overlooked. One of the 3 players on the roster to have started all 23 games this season, the junior guard leads the team in assists (82), steals (45), and is such a crucial part of what makes Bethel’s offense go. Bethel’s next big test comes on Saturday, as they host St. Benedict in the regular season finale.
Randolph-Macon is No. 24. I won’t draw this out, but I have struggled with RMC quite a bit. At 22-1 with wins over Johns Hopkins, Rhode Island College, Bridgewater, and W&L, I want to move the Yellow Jackets higher. At the same time, their last two road games have seen them need late surges to get the win, including last Saturday, when they trailed Ferrum by 6 entering the fourth quarter. They’ve continued to win, and that counts for a lot, but similar to Baldwin Wallace, you have to look deeper than the record. The underlying stats don’t particularly jump out (RMC is No. 48 in overall efficiency), but they have an experienced team that knows how to execute well in late-game situations, and that is an intangible that won’t show up in any sort of numbers. It’s also why the eye test remains very important in my voting approach.
Like La Crosse, Bates made its season debut in my Top 25, taking the last and final spot. I spent a lot of time looking at this one, and ultimately opted to reward Bates for its strong recent stretch of six straight wins through NESCAC play. The Bobcats being good is nothing new—they were 10-3 before NESCAC action tipped off—but their losing skid of four straight in mid-January sent them off just about every voter’s radar. As of late, they’ve looked almost like a different team, beating Tufts by 16 on Sunday and Trinity by 17 earlier this month. Elsa Daulerio is averaging 16.6 points and 9.6 rebounds over the six-game win streak and Alexandria Long has put up three double-digit scoring performances in that same span. Bates is rapidly rising at the most crucial point in the year.