The Sweet 16 is set
Leading off with five takeaways from Saturday's second round matchups plus some other notable factoids from advancing teams in the tournament
The first weekend of the tournament is in the books! Two days ago, 64 teams tipped off. Now on Sunday evening, we’re looking at a bracket with 16 teams left. How quick it all goes. It was a tremendous weekend of basketball, both in Menomonie, Wisconsin, where I was for the regional hosted (and won) by UW-Stout, as well as in places like St. Peter, Minnesota, Ashland, Virginia, Washington D.C., and Marshall, Texas, to name a few. The first two rounds of the tournament lived up to the expectations of being a balanced, strong field capable of producing tight, competitive matchups up and down the bracket. The second round had less surprises to it, but there was no shortage of must-see games, and it sets up what should be a very intense second weekend as these final 16 vie for spots in the Final Four in Salem, Virginia.
I thought I’d put down five main thoughts from the second round, plus a few notable factoids below, along with the complete schedule (game times included) for Friday’s third-round contests. Hope it’s been a great weekend!
The best scoring performance of Anna Mutch’s career came at the perfect time for UW-Stout…in March
There seems to be an elite group of offensive teams that have the scoring depth to where a different player can go for 30 every night. On Friday, it was Raegan Sorensen’s 32-point performance that highlighted UW-Stout’s 30-point win over Ripon. And on Saturday night, it was Anna Mutch, who had 31—20 in the second half—in one of the biggest second-round matchups of this tournament.
With Whitman, the No. 5 overall seed in NPI, playing at Stout, the Blue Devils showed up, overcame a slow start, and shot 12-of-20 in the second half of a massive 75-69 win. Mutch, a senior guard, was at the center of it all, registering multiple “and ones” as she got contested layups to fall through contact. That included a three-point play with 1:23 left that broke a 67-67 tie, and a pair of clutch free throws off another drive to the lane as Stout’s lead widened to 72-69 with 43 seconds left. It marked a career high for Mutch, and speaks to Stout’s overall offensive balance.
That’s what has made them dangerous all year. When they’re firing on all cylinders, it doesn’t seem to matter what the opposing defense does. It seemed Whitman overplayed Sorensen a bit, opening up more dribble-drive opportunities for Mutch and Amanda Giesen, who had 18 points of her own. And Lexi Wagner added 16, including a trio of 3s. When you lock down on one of their go-to scorers, that is only going to create more open looks for their other guards. And when Stout is in-rhythm, as they were on both Friday and Saturday, it typically doesn’t turn out favorably for the opponent.
Their quickness and physicality often makes up for the height disadvantages that are present through WIAC play and certainly in a tournament setting like Saturday, where Whitman started 6’1 Lindsey Drango and 6’0 Korin Baker. When you spread the floor like Stout does, and have multiple perimeter shot-makers forcing the defense to stretch out, it becomes very difficult to protect the paint as well as you’d like, even with that height advantage in the post. I think we saw that displayed in a huge way. It also resulted in plenty of trips to the free throw line for Stout, who went 23-of-24, the only miss coming at the very end when Lexi Wagner grabbed her own miss for a game-sealing offensive rebound. You won’t beat many teams that shoot 60% in the second half and 95.8% at the free throw line.
UW-Whitewater back in the Sweet 16…and draws another WIAC vs WIAC matchup
I’m not sure the last time a team faced conference opponents in consecutive rounds of the tournament, and especially in the second and third rounds. That’s the situation Whitewater is in, having gotten past UW-La Crosse for a third time this season in Saturday’s tightest game, with a 50-49 final score. The Warhawks now get Stout…for a fourth time this year. There wasn’t much of a way to avoid this matchup in the bracket, as five WIAC programs in the tournament meant the committee needed to put a few of them in the same quadrant.
Regardless, that’ll be a major storyline heading into next weekend, with the familiarity component being an especially big deal. But what did it take for UWW to reach the second weekend for the fourth straight time? With 1:05 left, UWL took a 49-47 lead on Malia Nelson’s layup, the 11th-seeded Eagles aiming to keep their Cinderella run going into the Sweet 16. But Katie Hildebrandt came through for UWW, taking a Kacie Carollo pass for a layup with 33 seconds to go. With two seconds left, and the score knotted at 49 apiece, Hildebrandt received a pass from the right wing and was fouled by Ali Sprangers as she drove to her left, going to the free throw line, needing just one for the lead. She did that on the first free throw, giving UWW the narrow margin of victory needed to advance. UWL had one last chance at a game-winner, but the long inbounds pass to the paint was broken up by Carollo as the buzzer sounded. Hildebrandt finished with 14 points while Carollo had a 13-point, 13-rebound double-double.
It was an absolute battle, as we expected from two teams whose regular season meetings yielded a pair of single-digit outcomes. But if there’s a number that jumps off the page, and this isn’t particularly surprising knowing the personnel, it’s UWW’s 14-1 advantage on the offensive glass. That led to 15 second-chance points for the Warhawks to UWL’s zero. In a contest ultimately decided by a single point, that’s a glaring stat. UWL’s defense was solid — UWW shot just 33.9% —-but those struggles in keeping the Warhawks from getting offensive rebounds led to a handful easy putbacks that kept UWW right there, rather than UWL building a four or five-point lead down the stretch.
Gustavus Adolphus’ defense, forced turnovers, were the difference against Wartburg
In an intriguing matchup between two Midwest powers, Gustavus Adolphus punched its ticket to the Sweet 16 in a 56-50 win over Wartburg, getting to the second weekend of the tournament for the second time in program history. The difference? Turnovers. At least from my perspective. This was a one-point game with 30 seconds to go; Gustavus made four more field goals, but Wartburg made five more 3s, and the rebounding margin was +1 in favor of Wartburg.
But the Knights turned it over 24 times, nine more than Gustavus, which led to the Gusties ending up with 10 more points off turnovers (26 to 16). In what turned out to be a six-point game, Gustavus finishing +9 in turnover margin stood out in a significant way, especially with the expected lower-scoring nature of the contest. It led to 14 fewer shots for the Knights, which makes a difference in such an evenly-matched game. On top of that, Gustavus did a nice job of capitalizing on those takeaways, especially in a second quarter stretch that led to the Gusties’ five-point halftime lead. Gustavus wins games on the defensive end, and they certainly did that against Wartburg, highlighted by 12 steals.
Without Arnolie, Gettysburg avoids WNE’s upset bid
There were only a couple instances of lower seeded teams being higher seeds, with 13-seed Geneseo beating 12-seed Montclair State, and 9-seed McMurry beating 7-seed Texas Lutheran. But Western New England nearly added its name to the list, if not for an inspired comeback from Gettysburg in the fourth quarter. Without leading scorer Alayna Arnolie, who was unavailable, Gettysburg struggled to find consistent offense, trailing 43-38 through three quarters.
But true to form, and just as they did when Mackenzie Szlosek went down with a season-ending injury early in non-conference play. In this case, it was Shinya Lee stepping up with a double-double, scoring 14 points to go along with 11 rebounds, both team-highs. With the Bullets down 50-42 with under five minutes left, Lee put together an 8-0 run by herself to tie the score, as Gettysburg grabbed the momentum, and held WNE to just two points until the final buzzer. That’s what makes Gettysburg impressive to me. Szlosek goes out in the season’s third game and they go 24-2 since that point. Arnolie is out for a pivotal second round duel, and again multiple players step up to fill the void. It wasn’t a dominant performance, but that’s not what’s needed in the national tournament. The one objective at this point: survive and advance. And Gettysburg did that. Not only did the win send them to the Sweet 16, but as a result of NYU’s men hosting sectionals, the Bullets also secured a second-straight weekend at home, hosting NYU, SUNY Geneseo, and Randolph-Macon for sectionals.
McMurry punches ticket to Sweet 16 for the first time since 2000
The Warhawks continue to make history in what has been a year of accomplishment for Drew Long’s squad. After spending years at the bottom of the ASC, McMurry began turning things around the last two seasons under Long’s leadership, and led by the efforts of Emily Holland – who surpassed 1,500 career points in the win – the Warhawks find themselves as one of the 16 teams still standing. As the old adage goes, “It’s hard to beat a good team three times.” And while that may have some truth, it didn’t stop McMurry from completing a perfect 3-0 season against Texas Lutheran.
TLU, who won the SCAC Tournament last Sunday, came in with plenty of confidence after knocking off host ETBU on Friday, 62-59. And for the second night in a row, the biggest game in Marshall ended up being a one-possession contest, though TLU found itself on the other end this time around, falling 66-63 to a McMurry team that found a way in the closing seconds, despite both Helena Chadwick and Jordan Gillespie having fouled out with over 2:30 left. Chadwick, a 5’6 guard, and Gillespie, a 6’0 forward, both play key roles in that McMurry rotation, especially as they’re both juniors. Lacking those pieces, McMurry didn’t stumble whatsoever, holding TLU to two points over the final 4:11. The defensive effort, especially on a night where 3-point shots from Holland and Kylie Flippin weren’t falling quite as often, stood out most to me. TLU’s quickness and aggressiveness on the drive makes the Bulldogs tough to consistently stop, whether it be Kailee Mulkey, Lauren Sansano, or Angelina Sotelo taking it to the rim. For McMurry to hold TLU to such a low scoring output when it mattered most was what decided the game. There were no huge shots in the final two minutes. It was the hard-nosed defensive stops that were the highlights in sending McMurry back to the Sweet 16 for the first time in 25 years.
Notables from the second round
In Randolph-Macon’s 62-56 win over Elizabethtown, the Yellow Jackets punched their ticket to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2006-07. RMC enters its third round matchup with Gettysburg with a 28-game win streak and a 29-1 record.
UW-Oshkosh booked its trip to the second weekend with a 59-49 win over Bethel (MN), marking its 12th Sweet 16 appearance in program history. With that, Oshkosh has reached the third round in more than half of its 20 NCAA Tournament appearances since becoming a D-III institution in 1977-78. Per UWO’s recap, under head coach Brad Fischer “Oshkosh has reached the third round in five of the last six tournaments and six of the last eight.”
NYU extended its win streak to 58 consecutive games after dominating Trinity (CT) in an 83-45 win that was decided by halftime. It is the 11th-longest streak in NCAA women’s hoops history, regardless of any level. Also, per NYU’s recap from the second round win: “Over the 1080 minutes they have played this season, the Violets have only trailed for a total of 6 minutes and 58 seconds.”
As a 13-seed, SUNY Geneseo is the lowest-seeded team in the Sweet 16, but is no stranger to the second weekend of the tournament. The Knights will make their fifth appearance in the Sweet 16, with the last coming in 2016-17, and the three prior to that coming in 1992-93, 1994-95, and 2014-15.
Baldwin Wallace’s 75-71 win over W&L puts the Yellow Jackets into the Sweet 16 for the fourth time in the last six years. The four-point win was BW’s third-smallest margin of victory so far this season.
Third Round Sites & Schedule
Friday, March 14
Bowdoin Sectional - Top Left Quadrant
McMurry vs Gustavus Adolphus, 5 p.m. ET
Bowdoin vs Smith, 7:30 p.m. ET
Illinois Wesleyan Sectional - Bottom Left Quadrant
Ohio Wesleyan vs Baldwin Wallace, 6 p.m. ET
Illinois Wesleyan vs UW-Oshkosh, 8:30 p.m. ET
Gettysburg Sectional - Top Right Quadrant
NYU vs SUNY Geneseo, 4:30 p.m. ET
Gettysburg vs Randolph-Macon, 7 p.m. ET
Scranton Sectional - Bottom Right Quadrant
UW-Stout vs UW-Whitewater, 5:30 pm ET
Scranton vs Johns Hopkins, 8 p.m. ET
Note: An original version of this newsletter had a mis-type that put Johns Hopkins in two matchups. Gettysburg faces Randolph-Macon (as is stated above) and Scranton faces Johns Hopkins.
It was a trying weekend for Kailee Mulkee, who followed a 1-11 shooting performance against ETBU with 5-18 against McMurry. That's a tough way for the senior leader of that squad and three-year 1st team all-SCACer to end her fine career.