Previewing the national semifinals: The nation's two undefeated teams set to square off
Welcome to Final Four week! The last four teams still standing in the 2024 NCAA Tournament are set to descend upon Columbus, Ohio with the national semifinals tipping off on Thursday.
Semifinal Preview: Transylvania vs NYU
I think there were quite a few people surprised to see Transylvania and NYU on the same side of the bracket, as this appeared to be the ideal national championship game. But you know what, in that case, we weren’t guaranteed a Transy/NYU matchup. With these two being on the same side of the bracket, that was made possible. We’ll finally get a chance to watch the last two undefeated teams in the country go toe-to-toe with a spot in the national title game on the line. Could the stakes be any higher?
Of Note
Transylvania enters this Final Four with the longest active win streak in any sport at any level in the NCAA, as the Pioneers have won 64 straight and are the defending national champions. Transy is 31-0.
NYU is 29-0 on the year and has been the consensus #1 in the D3hoops.com Top 25 Poll since the first regular season poll was released on Nov. 26. The Violets have been #1 for 11 straight editions of the ranking.
Transylvania enters this matchup ranked #2 in the country. The nation’s second-ranked team entering the tournament has won each of the last two NCAA Tournament titles, with the Pioneers doing so last season and Hope accomplishing the feat in the 2022 national tournament.
That said, in five of the last six Final Fours, the #1 ranked team entering the tournament has advanced to the championship game.
A look at the offenses
Scoring | Transy: 72.5 ppg | NYU: 81.1 ppg
FG% | Transy: 43.6% | NYU: 49.6%
Assists | Transy: 17.8 assists/game | NYU: 19.5 assists/game
Transylvania’s Dasia Thornton is one of the most dynamic scorers in the post, averaging 15.2 points per game while shooting 56.9% from the field. She is a tough matchup with her athleticism and remarkable rebounding to go along with what she does scoring-wise. Thornton is key to Transy’s offensive success and whether she matches up with Natalie Bruns or Morgan Morrison, that will be a storyline to keep an eye on.
If Thornton is penciled into the starting lineup, which she has been for 90 of the last 91 games she’s played in, the Cincinnati native will make her 91st start for the Pioneers on Thursday night.
Kennedi Stacy is a shooter to keep an eye on for Transy as well, as the fifth-year senior leads the team in 3-pointers made (57) and shoots 41.9% from the field. A 5-7 guard, Stacy does a little bit of everything for Transy, especially offensively and is a consistent offensive rebounder as well.
Look for Stacy to match up against Megan Bauman or Belle Pellecchia of NYU. That could be very interesting, and even more so on the defensive end. Stacy is an exceptional defender for the Pioneers as well.
Sadie Wurth continues to be key to Transy’s offensive execution. Filling the shoes of Maddie Kellione wasn’t easy, but Wurth has done a great job of running the offense and seeing the floor well.
Her 3.34 assist-to-turnover ratio currently ranks No. 3 in the country.
NYU scores in a variety of ways, and has incredible depth on its roster when it comes to scorers. Natalie Bruns leads that charge as the 6-2 junior averages 14.6 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. She shoots with solid range and has a shooting percentage of 54.6% entering the Final Four while having also shown the ability to connect on shots from beyond the arc.
And Transy will need to be sure to keep Bruns from the foul line, as she might be the Violets’ most consistent free throw shooter overall. She is shooting 83.1% on FTs this season.
Joining Bruns in the post is Morgan Morrison, who transferred in from Smith after winning WBCA Player of the Year honors a season ago. Morrison has been equally as productive for the Violets, averaging 14.4 points per game and 7.0 boards.
On the perimeter, look for Belle Pellecchia to have a significant impact. She averaged 16.0 PPG in last weekend’s wins over Hardin-Simmons and Scranton and continues to be great when it comes to driving to the lane and scoring that way.
Megan Bauman enters as NYU’s assist leader, with 132 on the season. The Babson transfer has been impactful in the Violets’ backcourt in her lone season in NYC, and that exemplified by her 10-assist performance against Scranton in the Elite Eight.
A look at the defenses
Points allowed per game | Transy: 42.8 ppg | NYU: 54.0 ppg
Turnovers forced per game | Transy: 12.9 | NYU: 14.1
Opponent FG% | Transy: 43.6% | NYU: 49.6%
Transylvania’s defense has been amongst the nation’s best this season, as evidenced by the Pioneers’ strong performances in Whitewater last weekend. To hold UW-Stout to 58 and UW-Whitewater to 48, considering how good both of those offenses were throughout this season, was extremely impressive. Even with the quality teams the Pioneers have faced in tournament play, Transy still ranks No. 1 in the nation in scoring defense.
The Pioneers held UW-Whitewater to just five offensive rebounds and a shooting percentage of 26.3% from beyond the arc on Saturday.
For as much hype surrounds the scoring threats in NYU’s rotation, the Violets have been strong defensively as well. Opponents are shooting just 33.8% against NYU this season, and they cruised to wins over Hardin-Simmons and Scranton last weekend, winning by 18 against HSU and 22 against Scranton the following day.
Notably, NYU forced 17 turnovers to beat HSU and tallied five blocks in the win over Scranton.
Another note on Stacy, but this one coming from a defensive standpoint: she could be Transy’s most impactful player on the defensive end against NYU. Despite a tough offensive night against UW-Whitewater, she led the charge in stopping the Warhawks with a team-high five steals. A similar performance may be in store against the Violets.
Speaking on Stacy’s defensive impact, Transy head coach Juli Fulks said, “Her pure athleticism allows her to do so much. And in so many ways. In a normal night, she’ll play the top and bottom of the zone. She’ll play the point guard, the 2, or the 3. So we ask her to know and do a lot of roles. Her ability to cause pressure, force big turnovers, and the amount of energy she brings to games is a crucial part of who we are.”
And keep an eye on NYU’s ability to defend the 3-point arc. The Violets have consistently been strong defensively on the perimeter, with three of their four NCAA Tournament opponents held to three 3-pointers or less. Opponents are shooting just 27.6% from beyond the arc this season against the Violets.
The Bottom Line
The matchup I’m looking forward to watching is Transylvania’s defense going up against Natalie Bruns, Morgan Morrison, Megan Bauman, Belle Pellecchia, and the NYU offense. It will be a clash of offense vs defense and is the 13th time in the history of the D3hoops.com Top 25 poll that the nation’s No. 1 and No. 2 teams face off. I fully anticipate this being a battle that is decided in the game’s final minutes.