Oct. 23, 2023: Notable fifth-year seniors, non-senior losses in returning production, and key transfers
Longer write-up today...but we've got a lot to cover before the season tips off!
One of the biggest factors in a preseason ballot from a voter’s perspective is returning production.
The reasons are fairly simple. With more returners, especially those from the previous year’s starting lineup or main rotation, there is often a greater chemistry from the get-go. And even with some extra practice dates allowed prior to Oct. 15 in D-III, there still isn’t as much time at this level for chemistry to form prior to the official tip-off of the season. So when a team brings back, say, 80 percent of its previous year’s roster, and three of its five starters, it is plausible to have higher expectations for them, especially early on, than a program that returns just 30 percent and two starters.
For the most part, you can determine that returning production before even the final buzzer of the national championship game. But the extra year (the Covid year) of eligibility granted in the wake of the pandemic allowed for many top seniors to return for fifth years, and the impact of the fifth-year senior continues to be a storyline in both men’s and women’s hoops here in D-III.
Then there are always non-seniors who opt not to return. Whether it be a sophomore who decides to pursue academic goals and step away from basketball, or a player who enters the transfer portal for more challenge, a change in scenery, or more playing time, there is often at least one or two non-seniors from each roster who do not return for the following season.
In some cases, it is more than one or two, especially when a coaching change is involved. And this can also decrease preseason expectations as much as the return of a fifth-year senior can increase them.
Side note before going further: Thank you to Scott Peterson for his compilation of the aforementioned data. It is much appreciated, and extremely accurate. Please go check out his full website for a world full of D3 WBB statistics! Also, there will be 428 teams playing D-III women’s basketball this year. Wanted to correct that number from last week’s post.
Obviously we find these non-senior returners and the fifth-year seniors by manually going through the rosters of each program. There are still some rosters not available, so questions remain on a few notable teams.
But for the ones we do know, there have been some interesting notes as last year’s rosters are compared to this year.
For instance, Greensboro, who dominated the USA South last year with a 26-3 overall record, went from being a Top 60 preseason team (#55 in Scott’s initial ranking) to a team ranked closer to 200 (#202 to be precise). That is an eye-popping drop. But look at the roster. Both Audrey Jennings and Lauren Livingston, sophomores for Greensboro last season, are not returning as juniors. And their impact is immense. Both played exactly 829 minutes last season, which means Greensboro will be without two very experienced starters. But that’s not all. Aijah Palmore, who played 657 minutes, also left the program after her sophomore year, as did Quadijah Moore. Starting to make sense why Greensboro dropped so far with the release of this roster? As a side note, you don’t have to go far to find the landing spot for Jennings, Livingston, and Palmore out of the transfer portal. All will be playing at Barry University, a D-II program in Florida. The head coach at Barry? Heather Macy, who head coached Greensboro last season.
Greensboro wasn’t the only program with significant non-senior non-returners than usual. ETBU also lost a couple non-seniors, which means the Tigers’ returning production sits at just 24 percent. That said, ETBU did pick up five first-place votes in last week’s ASC Preseason Poll, so maybe some of the voters in that poll know something I don’t about the incoming talent. Regardless, Brooke Webster, who played 661 minutes as a junior for ETBU last year, will not be back. Neither will Mollie Dittmar, who was a force for the Tigers in the post and logged 538 minutes.
It appears Dittmar graduated in the spring (and is pursuing a master’s degree from ETBU) and Webster graduates in December, which adds some context. Regardless, it will be a loss for ETBU not to have that level of experience on the floor. Though I would guess, unlike in Greensboro’s case, both Webster and Dittmar were treated as seniors last season and ETBU’s coaching staff prepared for them not to return. It actually isn’t too uncommon for student-athletes to graduate in 3 1/2 years and just play through their junior year as a result. ETBU goes from #55 to #119 in Scott’s model, largely because of that lack of experienced returning production.
Westminster (Missouri) is another program that should be a bit of a wild card due to a few unexpected losses in returning production from the 2022-23 team. But the biggest loss was known, at least around the SLIAC. Shelby Kurtz, the outstanding guard who connected on a game-winner to send Westminster to the SLIAC tournament final in the spring, won’t be back. She was only a junior last season, but similar to Webster and Dittmar, was honored as a senior by Westminster throughout last year. Not having Kurtz back hurts, considering she played 843 minutes, the second-most amongst non-seniors non-returners (as far as we currently know). Not having Carli Libhart back was unexpected, however, and while she wasn’t a big-time scorer (4.4 PPG), she played in all 27 games and logged 533 minutes, which is pretty substantial for a true freshman. Then you factor in Natalie Archambault, a junior last year, who is not back on the roster, and it becomes clear that Westminster will have a number of new faces in key roles this season. Archambault played 662 minutes and averaged 8.5 PPG. Westminster goes from sitting at #70 to #161.
Lastly, UW-Stout had a pretty significant loss with Haylee Yaeger not back (per the recently posted UW-Stout roster and Scott’s research), as the junior, a 5’11 forward, averaged 21.2 minutes per game last year. The one thing Stout lacked was depth in the post, and though the Blue Devils brought in 6’2 freshman Maraya Wiltrout, Yaeger had a large amount of collegiate experience, which is invaluable, especially in the WIAC. Stout drops in Scott’s preseason outlook model from #21 to #37.
Shifting now to some (somewhat) unanticipated improvements in returning production, now, both Ohio Northern and Webster are both looking more like contenders with some impactful fifth-year seniors back. It was told to me a while back to Brynn Serbin would be back for ONU, and that was confirmed with the release of ONU’s roster this past week. Serbin, an All-America selection last year, averaged 14.3 PPG and shot 39.7 percent from the field. Watching her in action, it is clear that she is a special player, and a tough matchup for OAC defenses. It is huge for ONU to have Serbin back, considering her talent level and the experience she brings to the table. These kinds of players don’t come along often, and having Serbin back makes the Polar Bears a serious national contender; 91 percent of the roster from 2022-23 is back.
Webster may not have the Top 15 ranking that ONU will have heading into the season, but the Gorloks are the SLIAC favorite once again. If we were to use the term “mid-major” in D3 like we do in D1 (in this case, it’d likely be teams from one-bid leagues…so no UAA, WIAC, NESCAC, NEWMAC) Webster would be at or near the top of the list. The SLIAC certainly isn’t the strongest conference in the country, and Webster’s SOS is not expected to be all that high this season, but this is a program that wins year in and year out. And they have their star back for 2023-24.
That would be Julie Baudendistel, a versatile guard/forward who averaged 15.3 points per game last year. She shoots it well from 3-point range (36% on 93 attempts last year), and averaged 6.3 rebounds per contest as well. She has started 90 career games at Webster and averaged 27.2 minutes per game. This is one of those impact fifth-year players that can really improve the outlook of a team’s season. Webster is a Top 40 team for me right now and one that I expect to be playing in the NCAA Tournament in March.
It had been rumored (and was confirmed to me a little while back) but we now have it public that Aleah Grundahl is back for UW-Whitewater. A 6’0 forward who started all 26 games for the Warhawks a year ago, Grundahl’s presence should be a major boost for UW-Whitewater. A fifth-year senior who averaged 14.3 points and 4.5 rebounds per game in 2022-23, the Warhawks won’t lack depth in the post. In addition to Grundahl’s return, Whitewater also brings in North Dakota State transfer Katie Hildebrandt. I will have to confirm on her eligibility, considering she already played two years at NDSU but is listed as a freshman on the newly-released Whitewater roster. A 6’2 forward from McFarland, Wisconsin, Hildebrandt played in 50 career games at NDSU. She scored 61 points last season, and averaged 8.9 minutes/game in 28 contests. Look for her to be a “Newcomer of the Year” type player for the Warhawks. Really excited to see how she and Grundahl fit into the mix.
Another notable transfer was just made public as I was putting the finishing touches on this. Calvin, who lost a huge amount of its production from 2022-23 due to graduation, welcomes Anna Fernandez, a transfer guard from Wheaton. She is listed as a freshman on the roster for Calvin, and played last year in the CCIW, averaging 8.3 PPG in 17 starts. She appeared in 26 total games for Wheaton, and was a key contributor for the Thunder on both ends of the floor. She averaged 5.5 rebounds/game and also had a total of 30 steals. Fernandez has the potential to step into a major role for Calvin in the backcourt this season.
This is probably enough analysis for now. But I’ve got plenty more coming in the days and weeks to follow as we prepare for tip-off. If you know of any D3 vs D1 WBB games scheduled, please let me know, as I’ll be tracking those once again. You can follow the results of those games (as well as D3 vs D1 MBB games) on this spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tw6yWN-9TvAf18_1h1qgjtSCYcXXB-Fw69hbzqkqBKU/edit?usp=sharing
This week, we’ve got UW-Stout in action at Green Bay, McMurry at Tarleton State, ETBU at LSU (more to come on that one), Christopher Newport at Old Dominion, Illinois Wesleyan at Illinois State, and UW-Whitewater at Wisconsin. Looking forward to it!
Also, be sure to give Scott a follow on X/Twitter, at @scott_peterson4. He will be a D3hoops.com WBB Top 25 voter this year and always provides great insight and analysis. I mention him because he is planning to release his ballot publicly each week, so stay tuned for that. I will be posting my ballot publicly, both here and on X/Twitter, once again this season as well, and as far as I know, Scott and I will be the only two voters doing so when it comes to our ballots. Preseason Top 25 should be out soon from D3hoops.com, though admittedly, I do not know the exact date yet.
Have a great start to your week! As always, feel free to reach out with any comments, feedback, questions, etc.