My Top 25 Ballot Breakdown: Week 2
We're into Week 2 of the regular season D3hoops.com Top 25 Poll, so here's a look at how I'm viewing the Top 25
It’s time for another Top 25 ballot breakdown! As a side note, Scott Peterson, Justin Heinzen and I sat down yesterday to talk about the season in D3 women’s basketball so far, and would highly recommend going and watching that when you have a few minutes (Watch here), as we took a look at regional rankings, talked about unique statistics, and evaluated some of the trends related to the impact of freshmen and transfers, as well as scheduling trends. So be sure to check that out!
Which leads me to this ballot today, as another D3hoops.com Top 25 Poll is set to be released this evening. There were some changes in my ballot as plenty of surprising results came up throughout the week, and I went back and forth on several teams before settling on the final order. Again, this is just one voter’s perspective on this whole thing, and there are 24 others who have different perspectives, so keep that in mind as I go through my thoughts on these teams below. We’re seeing lots of competitiveness early in this season, which may make it a little more difficult from a voting standpoint, but it is awfully fun to watch each week as top teams face off.
Here we go…
#1 NYU: The Violets kept their perfect record intact on Sunday in their lone game of the week, beating Connecticut College on the road, 87-61. It was a game in which Morgan Morrison did not play for NYU and once again proved the incredible depth on this roster. Caroline Peper came off the bench with an incredible 21-point effort in the win. NYU is now 7-0 and holding firm at the #1 spot.
#2 Transylvania: I kept Transy at #2, as the Pioneers posted a 2-0 week that was highlighted by Wednesday’s dominant 69-46 win over Wittenberg. Considering Wittenberg was in the national conversation last week thanks to wins over Ohio Northern and Trine, Transy leading 41-12 at halftime proved to be extremely notable. It showed just how strong this squad is against quality competition, and the Pioneers capped the week with a 93-28 win over Defiance that saw them lead 58-11 at the halftime intermission. Talk about dominance!
#3 UW-Whitewater: With the big victory over Chicago by double digits, Whitewater makes a two-spot jump in my ranking this week. Not only was that 11-point win over the Maroons an excellent indicator of the strength of the Warhawks, but it added to what is already a growing list of notable results, with wins over Concordia-Moorhead, Carroll, and Illinois Wesleyan already on the resume. Aleah Grundahl is having another All-America season, and Whitewater heads into another huge non-conference matchup against a strong Wheaton team at home next Saturday.
#4 Christopher Newport: With Whitewater at #3, CNU drops to #4, but this is a case where UWW moved up, rather than CNU moving down, if that makes sense. There are times where one team’s body of work supersedes the teams ahead of them, even if those other teams did nothing to warrant that drop. CNU posted a 1-0 week, beating Haverford yesterday, 72-44. The Captains opened the game on a 19-6 run and never looked back, improving to 8-0. CNU continues to be a national contender, in my opinion.
#5 Scranton: Same thing here with Scranton. The Lady Royals dropped by one spot but posted a 2-0 week in Landmark Conference play, winning 72-44 over Wilkes on Wednesday and followed that up with a 72-33 win over Juniata on Saturday. Those victories improve Scranton’s record to 7-0, with two more Landmark games on tap this week. Kaci Kranson has been really impressive, stepping up with 17.3 points per game while averaging 23.9 minutes per game. I have liked seeing Scranton’s balanced attack throughout its rotation, as that is a sign of quality depth on the roster and should serve the Lady Royals well as they get deeper into conference play in January, with matchups against Elizabethtown and Catholic on the slate.
#6 Gustavus Adolphus: The Gusties remain at #6 in this week’s poll, holding a 4-0 record with some pretty one-sided wins. No win has come by fewer than 16 points for the MIAC’s top program, as Gustavus opened conference play on Saturday with a 74-48 win at Augsburg. This team looks very sharp early in the season, and I have to think they will only get better as the winter progresses. Most of these teams in the Top 25 have already played at least six games; Gustavus has played just four.
#7 Rhode Island College: I have a feeling RIC may be one of the most “debatable” teams throughout this season when it comes to the Top 25 conversation. There are voters who have the Anchorwomen very high, and voters who have them closer to the 13–15 range. That comes down to voting philosophy and approach, and I did move RIC up four spots after pulling out a pretty impactful 60-56 win over Trinity (CT) on Wednesday on the road in Hartford. They have had some pretty close calls too, winning against Williams and Babson narrowly, which leads to some conflicting thoughts when the eye test is factored in. You have to win the games in front of you, and that is what RIC has done up to this point, even if it hasn’t always been pretty.
#8 Wartburg: The Knights remain at #8, but picked up a key ARC win on Wednesday over Loras, winning on the road, 64-56. It is an impactful result that only solidifies Wartburg’s place as a Top 10 team, as the Knights, at 7-0, have begun the season with momentum. They are now 2-0 in league play with Saturday’s 65-41 win over Central, and everything seems to be clicking right now. The defensive effort has been pretty noteworthy, allowing just 50.4 points per game, and I think the success starts there for Wartburg.
#9 Tufts: I went back-and-forth on Tufts as I dove deeper into the numbers and my notes from watching the Jumbos play this past week. Their only result was a 66-63 loss to MIT at home, which drops them to 5-2 overall on the year. That other loss came to RIC in the season opener, and while losing on Wednesday was not ideal, MIT is very much in the Top 25 mix, and it was a quality matchup that should benefit the SOS of both teams. And it was a battle all the way through, so while a two-loss team in the Top 10 may not be common, Tufts does seem to fit the bill. I still don’t see a super impressive win on the resume, with the best victory probably being an 80-59 win over St. John Fisher, but we’ll get our chance to see Tufts tested next Saturday, as the Jumbos play NYU in New York City. That will be a big indicator as to where they stack up against the nation’s best. I nearly put Emory above Tufts, but in the end, I think Tufts is currently the stronger team by a very minimal margin.
#10 Emory: Emory does improve by two spots from #12 this week, after taking down both Oglethorpe and Rhodes by comfortable, double-digit margins. Daniella Aronsky and Claire Brock are one of, if not the, best backcourt duos in Region 6, and that has really come into play for Emory, especially when you consider the Eagles’ only loss came by 10 at CNU in a game in which Brock did not play. She currently leads the team with 16.3 points per game, and Aronsky is just behind at 12.3 as Emory’s second-leading scorer. Emory is on the rise from what I am seeing, and has just one more game on Tuesday against Piedmont before taking a 25-day break prior to the Dec. 30 matchup against Hardin-Simmons. That dynamic will be tough from a voter’s perspective, but that’s a problem for the weeks to follow, not right now.
#11 Trinity (CT): The Bantams went 1-1 on the week, falling to RIC in a back-and-forth game that went down to the wire. RIC ended up with the 60-56 win, which was disappointing for Trinity, who lost another extremely tight game to Smith just a few days prior. But in a great example of having short-term memory and bouncing back strong, Trinity went to Stevens and won, 70-59, on Saturday. That’s huge. The losses to RIC and Smith are the product of playing against great teams, and losses may happen along the way. But then to go and beat Stevens clearly shows this team is tenacious and belongs in this conversation. Losing to Top 15-caliber teams by a combined seven points is not a sign that Trinity is out of place within the national rankings. If anything, it tells us more about Smith and RIC, in my opinion, than it does about any deficiency of Trinity. I think Hardin-Simmons and Trinity could easily be flipped, but Trinity already has several potential RRO-type wins, and the Bantams have now won two big games on the road, beating Ithaca and Stevens as the visiting team. That also counts for something in my book. Overall, Trinity drops by one spot in my ballot.
#12: Hardin-Simmons: HSU understands Trinity’s disappointment in losing by such narrow margins to Smith and RIC. The Cowgirls saw their undefeated record—and 25-game regular season conference win streak—erased at the hands of an ETBU team that entered Saturday’s matchup with a 1-6 record. But that’s college hoops for you. I will say that ETBU is a lot better than what its record shows, because the Tigers definitely have some big-time playmakers. After all, all six of ETBU’s losses came by single digits. 3 of those losses came to Top 25 opponents. That’s all you need to know. Sure, HSU lost, but the final was 66-65. It was far from a blowout. And it was on the road in conference play in December. I’m not making excuses, but context is important. HSU is a tremendously talented team, and one game doesn’t change the overall success that the Cowgirls have already had this season. I did drop HSU by two spots, but they stay pretty close to the Top 10 here.
#13 Millikin: Led by Elyce Knudsen and Bailey Coffman, Millikin is rolling. Look no further than the 85-48 victory over Augustana in CCIW play on Wednesday night. Knudsen had 36 points, and the entire offensive attack found an early rhythm. The margin of victory there was a little bit unexpected, but it just shows how strong Millikin is this season. Put that along with wins over DePauw and UW-Platteville (which both seem to be increasing in value) and Millikin is a team on the rise. I moved them up one spot, flipping them with Smith in this week’s poll.
#14 Smith: Again, Smith did nothing wrong. But Millikin definitely did something right. Smith is 5-1 with the Pioneers’ most recent win coming in dominant fashion over Eastern Connecticut State, 91-52, on Thursday. The Pioneers’ foundational piece in terms of their resume is a 66-63 win over Trinity (CT) last Sunday, which was indeed a very impressive win for Smith. Jessie Ruffner has stepped up big for the Pioneers and adding Sophia Rosa to the roster as a grad transfer made this Smith team more of a contender than perhaps I thought they might be, following a season in which a number of key starters graduated. Good to see.
#15 Trinity (TX): The Tigers actually move up a spot in my ballot as compared to last week, and this is despite two fairly slow starts against Southwestern and Texas Lutheran over the weekend in SCAC play. The win over TLU came in overtime after TLU took a significant halftime lead and seemed to control most of the first three quarters. But with that said, TLU is legit this season; the Bulldogs have a win over a D2 opponent and were 7-1 entering the matchup. And Trinity went 2-0 on the road with wins on consecutive days. It’d be nice to see more consistency from the Tigers, especially out of the gate, but I like the energy they play with, and that UMHB win from the beginning of the season is now looking better and better as well. The resume is solid, and this team has the talent level capable of competing well with the nation’s Top 15.
#16 Amherst: The Mammoths looked good in a 70-55 win over Wesleyan on Saturday, and are 6-0 to start the year. Returning 100 percent of your previous season’s scoring production does make a pretty big difference, and we have seen that with Amherst thus far. But with that in mind, outside of beating NJCU and Albertus Magnus, I’m not sure there are any “marquee” wins on the slate. It may not be necessary to have that in non-conference play, considering how deep the NESCAC is. But it makes it more difficult to properly evaluate Amherst with this kind of schedule. #16 feels right at this point, with Amherst having held its own in the first month of this season, though we will have to wait until conference play tips off against Williams on Jan. 5 to truly see the Mammoths tested. This is an improvement of one spot from last week’s ranking.
#17 UW-Stout: The Blue Devils are 6-1, and have held steady the last couple weeks with lopsided wins over four UMAC teams. Two of those came this past week, as Stout set a new program record for 3-pointers made in a single game (19-of-28), beating Martin Luther, 106-46. The Blue Devils followed that up with an 80-57 win over Crown on Friday, and have looked pretty consistent offensively these last couple of weeks. They still have the Puget Sound win on their resume and seem to be building momentum heading into the Dec. 16 matchup at Trine.
#18 Hope: Both Stout and Hope moved up in part because of the losses by teams I had ahead of them last week. Neither had a super impressive result. But both went 2-0 and Hope did it in MIAA play, going on the road to Albion (who was 4-1), and winning, 68-51. The Flying Dutch then beat Olivet, 81-43, at home, and now hold a 6-1 record with solid wins over Illinois Wesleyan and UW-Platteville.
#19 Illinois Wesleyan: The Titans continue to look really impressive and slide up three spots in this week’s ballot. Not only did IWU beat a very solid Carroll team, 65-59, as the Titans won their fourth straight game. They did so without Ava Bardic or Lauren Huber, their top two scorers, on the floor, which only further demonstrates the exceptional depth on this roster. They play well as a unit, and that cohesiveness is evident when you watch them on the court, with each player understanding her own role and maximizing her impact within that role. That is a sign of a team that will be tough to beat the deeper into CCIW play they go. Currently 7-2 heading into Wednesday’s big road duel at Wheaton.
#20 Chicago: I moved the Maroons up, as watching them against Whitewater, especially in the second half, gave me a little more confidence in what they have within their rotation this season. Whitewater was the better team in Saturday’s contest, but Chicago battled well and will once again be in the mix in the UAA. After a two-week break, Chicago hosts IWU in what will be a pretty impactful Midwest matchup on Dec. 16. I look forward to that one. Chicago’s best win is an overtime road win over Carroll, but eye-test-wise, the Maroons are at that Top 20 level. I think it has taken a little bit of time for Chicago to find its scoring after the graduation of Grace Hynes, but Ellie Gross has stepped up in a big way, and several others have too. This team is coming together and will be ready once the UAA schedule tips off.
#21 Elizabethtown: The Blue Jays are 5-2, and took that second loss this past week, falling to Catholic in overtime at home, 79-70. The Landmark is going to be a tough league this year, with Catholic establishing itself as more of a contender than I had initially expected. This loss for ETown was a back-and-forth duel the entire way, with Catholic catching fire on the offensive end late, which helped force the game into OT. I still really like the win over Dickinson that the Blue Jays have on their resume, and losing to CNU is nothing to be upset about. But that Dec. 19 matchup against Loras in Puerto Rico now carries pretty strong significance for both teams, considering neither would be Pool C locks at this point in time (and yes, it’s a long season, so talking about Pool C in December isn’t going to be super spot-on, though potential RRO wins are decreasing as the season goes on). Regardless, Elizabethtown is a great team that is right up there in the Landmark this season. Two more conference matchups to go before that Loras game on the 19th.
#22 Loras: Speaking of Loras, here we are. The Duhawks dropped the furthest of any team in my ballot, going from #15 to #22. They went 0-2 on the week, falling at home to an excellent Wartburg team followed by a 71-57 loss to UW-Platteville. Both were great opponents, and neither loss in itself is too concerning. But I also didn’t see Loras play at the same level as their opponents for much of those two games, and that led to the drop. I still really like the talent on that roster, and believe Loras will contend atop the ARC, but it’s just taking some time to find traction at this point. As mentioned above, the Elizabethtown matchup is going to be huge when it comes to regional ranking and Pool C outlook.
#23 DeSales: The Bulldogs actually slid up one spot for me this week after posting a 2-0 record with wins over Centenary and Immaculata. The MACF is going to be an interesting league this year with a bit more parity than we’ve seen in past seasons. DeSales does not hold a super impressive win, which is partially why I have the Bulldogs outside the Top 20 right now. I just haven’t had the chance to see them against Top 25-level competition. But this is definitely a team that belongs inside the Top 25 right now, as this looks like a different team than the one that lost to Muhlenberg in the season opener. That improvement is great to see.
#24 Trine: Trine gets on my ballot this week, with a 5-1 record and the Thunder’s lone loss coming by six points to Wittenberg. But wins over Albion, Baldwin Wallace, and Muskingum really pushed Trine’s resume to the top as I looked at my final two spots. The Ohio Northern win has looked less impressive since it happened, but it is still a quality road win, and I don’t want to take that away from Trine. Sidney Wagner is an All-America caliber guard who has guided Trine well through the first six games, and will be in that MIAA Player of the Year conversation once again. While Trine is far from a “Top 25 lock” for me, I do like what I’ve seen so far from this squad.
#25 Johns Hopkins: Another team makes its season debut in my ballot, as JHU is off to a 6-1 start and 4-0 in Centennial Conference action. When you consider that JHU’s only loss is to #1 NYU, and the Blue Jays hold wins over WashU, Marymount, and Gettysburg, I don’t see a reason not to have them in. There is not a bad loss on this resume, and everything has been clicking the last couple weeks. Their win streak has extended to five games. Next Saturday’s matchup against Dickinson will be impactful from a Centennial title race perspective, as Dickinson is off to a solid start of its own and playing well at this point. I’ll be surprised if I’m the only voter who has JHU on their ballot this week.
That wraps this up! Now we just have to wait and see how the D3hoops.com Top 25 Poll turns out. We also have some great basketball on the slate tonight, with Bates at Bowdoin being an intriguing game there in Region 1. Bates is still undefeated, and Bowdoin is 5-1. I’d definitely tune into that 7 p.m. ET matchup if you get a chance. Notably, this is a non-conference game. So while both are in the NESCAC, this does not count towards the league standings. But it will produce a head-to-head result that could factor into the regional rankings conversation. Looking forward to it. Hope you are having a great start to the week!