March 5, 2023: The sectional hosts are set...but not without some controversy + Round of 32 recap
Well…I was going to start this post off by breaking down who reached the Sweet 16 (yes, I know the term “Sweet 16” is reserved for D1, but I don’t care…D3 deserves it too!)…but news has come up this morning that I feel needs immediate attention.
In short, Trinity TX, Tufts, Wartburg, and Christopher Newport all advanced in the top right quadrant yesterday. Some really big wins there, including Wartburg’s upset of Hope (more on that in a minute). If you remember back to last week’s conversations within the D3 WBB community on Twitter, you might recall a few people noting that this quadrant was set up to where 3 flights would be required for the sectional round (if chalk held). This seemed to be so that CNU could host a sectional in the case that their men’s team did not host (we’re in alternating years, so WBB had hosting priority on the first weekend, MBB has it on the second weekend). But CNU’s men’s team did prevail, so CNU can’t host a WBB sectional. But again, 3 flights would be required to get to Trinity, Tufts, or Wartburg. Situation on that front doesn’t change.
That sets the stage. Now Wartburg is mathamatically an outlier when compared to Trinity and Tufts, so the sectional host was between those latter two. Here are the numbers, without naming to the teams…(numbers based off Scott’s model)
Team A: .778 win %, .657 SOS, 9-5 v/RROs, Avg RRO win was ranked 4.3 in their region
Team B: .963 win %, .522 SOS, 6-1 v/RROs, Avg RRO win was ranked 3.8 in their region
With the fact that the committee had taken Wartburg (a high win % team with a 1-6 v/RROs mark) I had thought that that Team B would be in a good spot to host. Yes, there were less RRO wins, but they won in 6 of their 7 opportunities. Team A had 14 opportunities v/RROs, only winning 9. And Team B’s average RRO win was 0.5 spots higher.
But Team B wasn’t awarded the hosting rights. Instead, Team A (Tufts) will be hosting a THIRD sectional in Massachusetts this weekend, robbing a Region 10 program (Trinity) of what might have been the best chance in history (not an exaggeration) to host on the second weekend, something that, to my knowledge, had never been done before. This only adds fuel to the fire for all the Region 10 folks who complain each year about the way geographical seeding works unfairly against teams west of the Mississippi.
Now before going further (and I don’t plan to go much further), let me say that this is nothing against Tufts, and really nothing against the committee. I think the committee did a fantastic job with the bracket this year, period. But it is hard to understand why 3 sectionals got put in the state of Massachusetts, while Trinity, with a nice facility, nearby airport, and 5-star hospitality, was refused the chance to host. I have no idea what the committee’s reasoning for this was. And I don’t want to try to guess. Maybe there was something they saw that I didn’t see. But it is intriguing to say the least.
The 4 sectional hosts are: Transylvania, Babson, Tufts, Trinity (CT).
Ok…now for yesterday’s action. I didn’t post my ballot publicly, but can tell you I am not the one you want betting on games. My national champ is already out, as are 2 of my projected Final Four teams. Then again, some of these upsets we never saw coming.
Wartburg, 81, Hope, 67
Last Sunday, I didn’t think Wartburg would get into the tournament at all (Sorry to all the Knight fans out there!). Today, the Knights are Sweet 16 bound, having shocked Hope at Devos Fieldhouse last night in an incredible upset. Hope’s seniors were 103-4 in their 4-year careers. And what a legacy they are leaving at Hope. Credit to Wartburg. You look at the stats and it was a near perfect performance; 53.8% from the field, 14-of-24 from 3-point, and 19 forced turnovers. They did a really good job of handling Hope’s on-ball pressure defense, which makes me think the Knights have a pretty shot to upset CNU on Friday. Interesting too that Wartburg played just 7. I knew they had a smaller rotation for the last few games, but that’s a pretty low number. Sara Faber did a little bit of everything for Wartburg, with 4 steals on the defensive end, and a team-high 16 points on the offensive end.
Rhode Island College, 62, Scranton, 55
Scranton’s season came to a premature end at the hands of RIC, a team I wasn’t sure would win in the first round of the tournament against Rowan. But RIC had a great gameplan and that was evident when they outscored Scranton 18-10 in the opening quarter. But Scranton did what we expected them to do, and fought back to take a 43-40 lead at the end of the 3rd. Then RIC turned it on with an 8-0 run to begin the 4th, and ended up outscoring the Lady Royals 23-12 in that final quarter. RIC kept things balanced offensively, and shared the ball. Bridget Monaghan was incredible, with 34 points for Scranton, but for the most part, it was her and Kaci Kranson scoring Scranton. The duo scored all but 7 of Scranton’s 55 points, which hurt them in that last quarter, as RIC keyed in on Monaghan and Kranson. Monaghan had 10 of their 12 points in the 4th, but in those moments, I think you need to have a few other step up to spread out the defense and create offensive opportunities.
Mary Washington, 75, DeSales, 69
Mary Washington also deserves some enormous credit for taking down DeSales on DeSales’ home court. Lindsey Welsh did not play for DeSales, so the Bulldogs were down a starter, but overall, Mary Washington just had a better performance. They outscored DeSales in all four quarters, shooting an even 50% from the field. The contest was by no means a blowout, with its back-and-forth nature leading to 15 lead changes. Mary Washington built some momentum after going down by a point with 1:49 left in the 3rd quarter, and mounted a 6-0 run that made it 58-53. They also scored the first 5 points of the 4th, going up by 10, and DeSales never led at any point in the 4th.
Trine did a great job of making halftime adjustments, which led to immediate success in the 3rd. The Thunder trailed 34-25 at the half, and actually went down 11 in the opening minutes of the second half, but found their footing the form of an 11-3 run that cut Loras’ lead to two. By the time the 4th quarter began, it was tied at 43 apiece. Trine did a great job defensively in the final 2 minutes or so, holding Loras to just four points. That kept some separation between the teams, but Loras’ Cierra Bachmann connected on a 3-pointer with 16 seconds left that cut Trine’s lead to two. The Thunder were automatic at the free throw line though, and closed out the game there.
Marietta, 44, Ithaca, 42
Adding to the list of teams who were defeated on their home courts yesterday, Ithaca suffered a defeat at the hands of Marietta. And the worst part of it was that Ithaca led by 7 with about 2:45 to go. But Marietta closed the game on a 9-0 run, not allowing Ithaca a single point until the final buzzer sounded. It was a tremendous comeback from Marietta, who isn’t exactly an underdog, but also wasn’t the favorite to win that pod for a lot of people. The Pioneers stayed poised late in the 4th, and it paid great dividends. Stats were pretty even…not much offense for either team, as the defenses really stayed engaged for a full 40 minutes. Marietta will be dangerous in a very wide-open Babson sectional.
NYU, 62, Messiah, 41
Speaking of great defense, NYU held Messiah to just 41 points! In both the second and third quarters, Messiah was held to single digits, and I thought the result said a lot more about NYU than it did about Messiah. Messiah, though I’ve been doubtful of the SOS number, is certainly a championship-caliber program. But NYU proved why the Violets have been in the national title conversation all year. Jenny Walker also had 24 points in 33 minutes on the offensive end.
Transylvania, 71, Millikin, 59
Millikin had Transylvania on the ropes entering the 4th quarter, with the score knotted at 46 apiece. But Transy opened the final quarter with an 8-0 run that showcased the Pioneers’ 3-point shooting ability. Transy actually wasn’t great from beyond the arc, as Millikin’s defense challenged the Pioneers a good amount, but they were +13 on the boards and had 17 second-chance points as well. A Transy-NYU Elite 8 matchup would be must-see TV in Lexington on Saturday.
Chicago, 56, Whitman, 54
After pulling off a 3OT win over UW-Eau Claire on Friday, Whitman nearly came through with an upset of Chicago in the 2nd Round. They led 43-34 entering the 4th. But Chicago roared back, going ahead by a point on Grace Hynes’ free throw with 1:32 left. Whitman ended up with a chance to shoot for the tie or the win but two misses on the final possession dashed Whitman’s Sweet 16 hopes. Chicago shot just 27% from the field, but look at the FT disparity: Chicago (24 of 34), Whitman (5 of 9). Interesting…
That’s all I got today. Will have more coming this week as we look ahead to the Sweet 16 matchups. Just 16 teams are still alive in the tournament…only 25% of the teams who began tournament play on Friday. Exciting time of the year for sure.