March 10, 2023: Sweet 16...here we come!
The Sweet 16 has arrived! Lots of intriguing matchups tonight. Only eight of the 16 can advance to tomorrow’s action, and everyone can sense that. The intensity has built all week for these games, and I’m certainly excited to see who emerges from these sectionals. Here’s a quick look at who I’m seeing as the favorite and dark horse in each of these pods.
Smith Sectional
Hosted by Smith College in Northhampton, MA
Sweet 16 contests: Smith vs. Mary Washington, Trinity CT vs. UW-Whitewater
Favorite? Smith is the clear favorite here. I just don’t see the Pioneers being beat, not if they generate offense like they did last weekend. They scored 40 points in the blink of an eye in their first quarter of the tournament, and the exceptional experience level in the main rotation seems to form a group that communicates well and trusts each other on the floor. Sounds like a Final Four team to me.
Dark Horse? UW-Whitewater went through its highs and lows this season, winning some very big games, but also dropping a handful they probably should’ve won in WIAC play. But the Warhawks have been playing top-tier competition all season, with an incredible non-conference slate and WIAC play being what it was. That could yield favorable results for the Warhawks out east.
Transylvania Sectional
Hosted by Transylvania University in Lexington, KY
Sweet 16 contests: Transylvania vs. ONU, Trine vs. NYU
Favorite? This is the deepest sectional of the four in my opinion. I could easily see any one of these four leaving Lexington with a win tomorrow. That makes it especially difficult to pick a winner, but I don’t think you can go wrong with Transylvania here. Undefeated and disciplined defensively, the Pioneers will be a tough out.
Dark Horse? ONU has not gotten a whole lot of press, but the Polar Bears are led by a potential All-American in Brynn Serbin, and when she is on point, there isn’t much the opponent can do to stop here. Two big performances from Serbin, and a quality 3-point shooting performance this weekend could land ONU in Connecticut next week for the Final Four.
Tufts Sectional
Hosted by Tufts University in Medford, MA
Sweet 16 contests: Christopher Newport vs. Wartburg, Trinity TX vs. Tufts
Favorite? I have nothing against CNU, though I know I keep picking against them! But with Anaya Simmons out of the remainder of the tournament, CNU is in a tough spot. They have some reliable weapons off the bench, and can probably beat anyone in this pod. But Trinity TX will be playing with a bit of chip on its shoulder, having been sent to Tufts when many felt they had a case to host this sectional. And as a team, I think Trinity is built for the postseason. They limit the scoring runs that can so quickly flip the script in tournament games like these, and have tremendous experience on the floor, with several seniors. The Tigers might also be the best pure shooting team in this sectional, which could pay dividends.
Dark Horse? Wartburg is the team some of us left on the table in our mock Pool C projections but ended up being one of the last teams to receive a Pool C bid. They took it and proved why they belonged in this tournament, ending Hope’s season on the Flying Dutch’s home floor in Saturday’s second round. They beat Baldwin Wallace on Friday as well, and now have the momentum heading into the second weekend. They are playing fearless right now, and that’s a scary thing for the other three squads in this sectional.
Babson Sectional
Hosted by Babson University in Wellesley, MA
Sweet 16 contests: Babson vs. Marietta, Chicago vs. Rhode Island College
Favorite? I feel like Babson is the favorite here, but not by much. Chicago is a very close second. But if we’re talking about the Beavers, they run a slower-paced offense that scores at a high rate, shooting 44% from the field. Megan Bauman leads that charge at 12.1 PPG and Babson just tends to pull out wins in competitive battles like these.
Dark Horse? Marietta has really been playing well, and after watching the way they executed in the fourth quarter of the second round win over Ithaca, I am confident we could see three teams with “Pioneers” as their mascot reach the Final Four. Marietta has to win the rebounding battle by at least +5. If they do that, I won’t be surprised to see them playing for a spot in Dallas next week.
As a reminder, follow all of the tournament action on D3hoops.com, where you can find livestream links and more. I’ll be putting out updates throughout the games as best I can on my Twitter, (@ZayasRiley), so follow along there. Should be a great afternoon/evening of basketball!