March 1, 2023: Thoughts on the NCAA Tournament bracket...

Good morning! We’re officially into March! Wanted to check in with some thoughts on the D3 WBB NCAA Tournament bracket, as we approach two days until the 64-team tournament tips off!

I broke it down by quadrant…you can check out the full bracket here: https://d3hoops.com/playoffs/women/2023/bracket

Top Left Quadrant

• Smith is the #1 overall seed in this tournament (assuming nothing changed from the Top 16 reveal on that front…it shouldn’t have) and I like that the committee did its best to protect the Pioneers. Though no path to the Final Four is “easy”, this one is, shall we say, “favorable”, to Smith’s chances.

• DeSales is also in here, potentially setting up an Sweet 16 matchup between Smith and DeSales, who are the top two seeds in this quadrant.

• Marymount vs. St. John Fisher is probably the best first-round matchup in this quadrant, with the winner facing Smith/Morrisville State. I think both teams are balanced and neither is a very clear favorite from my perspective.

• Roger Williams vs. Mary Washington is another tough, well-placed first-round battle in a game that will be played at DeSales.

• Then you go a bit lower and see Trinity (CT) in a pod with St. Vincent, Cortland, and Notre Dame (Md.). Again, protecting the top seed. Trinity’s path through the first weekend might be favorable, but the second weekend could be very challenging. If chalk holds, Trinity would play Whitewater in the Sweet 16, which could be pretty cool.

• Also in the Whitewater pod at the bottom of the quadrant is a first-round contest between Gustavus Adolphus and Ohio Wesleyan. I like the way the committee maximized geography, getting a Minnesota school to face an Ohio school in round one. Winner gets Whitewater/Webster. And kudos to the committee for getting Webster up there! Those are 4 states (Ohio and Missouri being non-border states) represented in a first weekend pod with no flights.

Bottom left quadrant

• To start at the top, Transylvania hosts a pod with Rhodes, Millikin, and Emory. I love that Emory/Millikin first round matchup. You get the CCIW champ from Illinois against a strong UAA Pool C from Georgia. Great use of geography there, and what a cool first-round matchup. The two have only played once before, and that was in a 1996-97 NCAA Tournament matchup that Millikin won 51-43.

• I actually thought Berea would end up in this pod. Turns out they didn’t. Rhodes didn’t have to end up here, but both they and Emory weren’t going to be easily shipped to another pod. Millikin was the surprise here.

• Berea ends up at Ohio Northern, who also hosts UW-Oshkosh and Washington & Lee. Another fantastic, 4-state pod. I think the UWO/W&L first round matchup could be one of the best that we see, as those are two teams who benefited from tremendous non-conference schedules. Plus, how often do you see a WIAC play an ODAC on the first weekend? Almost never. Super impressed by this selection committee.

• WashU/Trine is another really exciting one that you won’t want to miss Friday. Those two play on a neutral court at Loras, who hosts Knox, in the opening round. I like the way WashU matches up with Trine. I think Trine might have better guard play, but WashU is definitely stronger in the post. Just my opinion…I could end up being completely wrong.

• You also have an interesting pod where NYU travels to Messiah. NYU faces Greensboro in the first round while Messiah takes on Bridgewater State. Getting a Messiah vs. NYU matchup on Saturday could be interesting. Committee made a good decision here considering NYU could not host because of facilities. Still “protected” NYU here as a high seed, though can understand the surprise from some people initially when they don’t see the Violets hosting. All things the committee has to take into consideration when putting this together.

Top right quadrant

• This is A.K.A the Christopher Newport quadrant. This is super interesting. If chalk holds, and CNU, Hope, Trinity (TX), and Tufts win their first weekend pods, we get an interesting situation where a sectional pod could possibly go back to Trinity. The reason? CNU’s men would have hosting priority on the second weekend (as the women have first weekend priority), and Trinity would be next in line to host. It doesn’t really matter where it goes from a flights standpoint. They will need 3 flights regardless (with this group of 4). But it also gives CNU the chance to host on the second weekend if the men do not win their pod at Hampden-Sydney. I would argue that this part of the bracket might be the most interesting, since you don’t often see a “if chalk holds=3 flights to the sectional” type of situation. But CNU WBB deserves to host second weekend if given the opportunity, and creating a Texas pod with Trinity, Hardin-Simmons, UT-Dallas, and Redlands helps accomplish this. Regardless, our national champ could easily come out of this pod. If chalk holds, as Gordon Mann noted on D3boards., the sectional could easily pass as a final four. Those four teams are all capable of winning it all this year.

• Toughest matchup in this quadrant is probably Trinity’s home duel with UT-Dallas. There’s a bit of a homecoming element here, as UTD head coach Joe Shotland both graduated from Trinity (where he played 4 years for the MBB team) and served as an assistant coach for six seasons before taking the job at UTD. He’s in his first year, and after upsetting Hardin-Simmons and ETBU in the ASC Tournament, after beating Sul Ross State in a quarterfinal in OT on Tuesday, the Comets are dancing in March. Interestingly, Trinity TX has the lowest first-round win probability of any #1 seed in this tournament (81%), though the matchup against UTD isn’t a traditional #1 vs. #4 seed battle in these pods.

• The Hope pod has St. Norbert, Baldwin Wallace, and Wartburg, in addition to the Flying Dutch, which could make for an interesting game on Saturday. Really like some of the potential second-round matchups here.

• In what would be an #8 vs. #9 seed game if this was done like a D-I bracket, Elizabethtown plays Stevens. Could be an interesting one there in the first round. Winner likely to get CNU…I think ETown and Stevens are amongst the most evenly-matched teams in this quadrant.

• Tufts gets Merchant Marine in the first round, and is joined by Johns Hopkins and Skidmore. Nice northeastern pod there for the first weekend.

Bottom right quadrant

• Scranton is the top seed in this one, at 27-0. Again, good example of protecting the top seed. Scranton’s first weekend is by no means easy, but is very favorable. The Lady Royals are joined by St. Joseph’s (Maine), Rowan, and Rhode Island College. Another solid northeastern pod.

• Now at the top part of the quadrant, Babson hosts a pod with Gettysburg facing New Paltz and the Beavers themselves facing Maine Maritime. I like the balance here. Gettysburg has improved as of late, and is playing much better basketball now than they were six or eight weeks ago.

• I also thought the geography set up an interesting pod at Ithaca, where you’ll have the Bombers, La Roche, Marietta and Eastern Connecticut. Not often you get to see an OAC team play an LEC team in the first round, or in most cases, on the first weekend. The two are 639 miles apart, but both can get to Ithaca in under 500 miles. Long bus trips for both teams, but that’s where the committee maximized the 500-mile rule this year, creating some great matchups. Marietta vs. E. Conn State should be on your Friday viewing schedule…two very quality teams.

• You also have Whitman vs. UW-Eau Claire on Friday in a true coast-to-coast matchup. Good pairing here. I think Whitman can give UWEC a bit of a run, though the Blugolds’ outside shooting ability is hard to match. That’s in the Chicago pod by the way. 1 flight required here, but you get four different conferences (and states!) represented.

Bottom line: Megan Wilson and the committee did a fantastic job of both A) protecting the top seeds’ paths to the second weekend and B) utilizing the geography to their advantage. As we talked about on Hoopsville Monday night, there are a good number of unique and intriguing first weekend pods, which doesn’t always happen.

Hope everyone is doing well! Excited for this weekend. As a side note, a new Top 25 is out, which you can check out right here. Biggest surprise for me was seeing Berea ranked. My ballot is below.