July 3, 2023: Schedule Analysis: Part III
Ok, as promised, I’ve got another edition of “schedule analysis” for you. I’ll be grading the schedules for Hope, Trinity (CT), Trine, and Carnegie Mellon, and using Scott Peterson’s 2023-24 schedule ranking (including projected SOS) as I also offer my own opinions on these schedules.
From my previous schedule analysis post:
“Remember, this is relative to that team’s placement within their league and the national rankings, so what might be an A+ schedule for a mid-tier team would be a B- schedule for a top-level team. Remember that these are totally my opinions, and I’d love to hear your insight. Drop a comment below if you have a different schedule grade for any of these 2023-24 slates! And also be following Scott’s work over at d3data.weebly.com. He is still updating his spreadsheets and data in preparation for the upcoming season!”
Trinity CT | 2022-23 record: 25-6 | Conference: NESCAC
As soon as I saw this schedule released on Twitter, I loved it. Trinity is a Top 10 team for me entering the 2023-24 season (possibly Top 5?!) and their schedule certainly fits that, with so many potential regionally-ranked opponents on the slate. Playing in the NESCAC is extremely tough, but when you add that to high-level non-conference matchups, you don’t have a choice but to respect that particularly coaching staff and program.
Trinity opens its season at Ithaca on Nov. 13, facing a team that went 24-5 a year ago. That said, Ithaca may lose the majority its entire starting lineup to graduation, so the Covid year will come into play with that squad, as we’ll see who comes back for a fifth year. Regardless, Ithaca will be a great test out of the gate.
Then it is the Trinity tip-off tournament, where the Bantams will face either Skidmore or Connecticut College and Albertus Magnus, before hosting Coast Guard a couple days later.
Things really pick up in the span of the next four games, as Trinity goes to Smith on Nov. 26, and then hosts Rhode Island College three days later. Then comes road duels at Stevens and Emmanuel on Dec. 2 and Dec. 5. Both Smith and Stevens could be ranked in the Top 3 of their region when the regular season is said and done, so that is huge for Trinity to get both on the schedule. RIC will be interesting to watch, as they’ll have some new players in new positions, but certainly have a good chance of being ranked as well. And Emmanuel always plays tough, having nearly beaten Amherst and Springfield last season.
A matchup at Roger Williams follows on Dec. 7, and again, this was a team that finished last year ranked 5th in Region 2. Two days later, MIT is the opponent, and to be honest, I see MIT in more of a position to be regionally ranked than Roger Williams. MIT returns 84% of last year’s team (according to what we know now) and I thought they showed some flashes of really stepping up towards the end of last season. This could easily be a Top 25 matchup by the time this game rolls around.
There’s no better way to ring in the new year than for another all-out northeast battle with Trinity and Babson. Now, Babson may look a little different having lost some of its key players, such as Megan Bauman, from last year’s squad, but they always seem to put a talented product on the floor. That Jan. 2 matchup will certainly be must-see TV!
Worcester State and Rivier round out the non-conference schedule. Notably, in NESCAC play, the Bantams will get Tufts in the regular season finale on Feb. 10. That may be what decides the league’s regular season title. This analysis has gone way long, but I just can’t help but note the exceptional scheduling job here. Good mix of home and road matchups, and ultimately, it seems to be a willingness to go out and face good teams. I like that a lot. Fairly easy grade here.
Schedule Grade: A+
Trine | 2022-23 record: 23-7 | Conference: MIAA
Alright, headed to the midwest. The MIAA may take a step back in 2023-24, with the league’s top teams losing a significant amount of talent (based on Scott’s projection models), and as usual, the bottom half of the MIAA plus the double round-robin schedule makes it tough to keep a super high SOS. With that in mind, I think Trine’s schedule looks very solid.
Baldwin Wallace is the opponent that opens the season, so right there is a potential RRO result. The game will be at Trine, so that’s a plus, and starting the season on Nov. 15, as compared to a few days earlier on the 9th, 10th, or 11th, could yield positive early results for the Thunder. Personally, I like that approach, especially with a younger team.
They’ll get Muskingum and Wittenberg at home before road games at Ohio Northern and Calvin on Nov. 25, and Nov. 29. It goes without saying that both of those matchups will be key in Trine establishing a Pool C-worthy SOS.
MIAA play tips off on Dec. 2 against Albion, but after facing St. Mary’s (IN) in conference play on Dec. 9, Trine returns to non-conference play, hosting UW-Stout in what I anticipate will be a Top 25 matchup. Geneva and Asbury at the Trine Holiday Classic are not the strongest of opponents, but there has to be some give and take….because the following weekend at Marietta, they’ll face Carnegie Mellon and Gettysburg…and there’s a possibility of an RRO win there.
Trine, Hope, Calvin, and Albion all graduated significant numbers from last year’s team, so the way I’m looking at it, the MIAA is a wide-open race. The MIAA never disappoints as a league, and I expect the same in 2023-24. Pretty solid scheduling right here from the Trine coaching staff.
Schedule Grade: B+
Carnegie Mellon | 2022-23 record: 12-13 | Conference: UAA
We know the UAA will be strong again this season, and by the nature of it including teams from so many different regions, will yield its fair share of RRO results. That’s a plus. But let’s take a look at what CMU has scheduled in non-conference to go along with the gauntlet of UAA play, which tips off against Case Western Reserve on Jan. 6.
First thing that jumps out to me is that CMU will play Pitt-Greensburg twice in a 10-day span. They’ll face the Bobcats at the Springhill Suites Tip-Off Tournament on Nov. 11, and then host Pitt-Greensburg again on Nov. 21. Would be interested to know how that happened. Not that I’m against that move (Trinity TX and Hardin-Simmons did it last year and it worked well), but Pitt-Greensburg isn’t exactly the toughest opponent out there. And two matchups in a season in non-conference play are rare to begin with.
The Tartans will, however, face Washington & Jefferson, on the first weekend of the season, which will provide a good test right out of the gate. For what it’s worth, W&J will be at home in that one too, which adds another element of difficulty. Capital and Grove City (who has still yet to name a permanent head coach) are also on the schedule in November.
In December, Denison, Geneva, Wooster, Trine, and Mt. Aloysius are on the slate, which is a good mix of opponents. Trine obviously stands out from that group, and that might be the single-most important matchup on CMU’s schedule.
Again, I grade these on a sliding scale. What is a great schedule for one team may not be a great schedule for another. But it’s disappointing to see a team that is going to return 95% (or more) of its 2022-23 roster not have more potential RRO opportunities on the schedule. Projected SOS is .528 for CMU.
Schedule Grade: B-
Hope | 2022-23 record: 26-3 | Conference: MIAA
We’re getting Hope AND Trine in this third edition of “schedule analysis” and I’m looking forward to getting into this one. To be honest, I briefly looked through Hope’s schedule, but waited to actually absorb it until I sat down to write this post.
They open the season as per usual, hosting a pair of teams in their own tip-off tournament. Those two teams are Marian (out of the NACC) and UW-Platteville (out of the WIAC), which is an improvement from last year’s opening two games when they faced Geneva and Illinois Wesleyan and infamously outscored Geneva by nearly 100.
The following weekend sees Hope host yet another tournament, where they will get two of these three: John Carroll, Illinois Wesleyan, and Puget Sound. All three of those teams seem to be in for big seasons, bringing back the majority of their main rotations. Those two matchups will be huge for Hope’s national standing within the Top 25 and ultimately, in the Pool C/bracketing conversation come March.
Nov. 21 brings about Hope’s first road matchup of the year, at Wisconsin Lutheran, who enters the season as one of the favorites to win the NACC. MIAA play tips off in the month of November for Hope, with a road duel against Albion opening the conference slate on Nov. 29.
Four straight MIAA contests culminate with the Dec. 9 duel against Calvin at home before non-conference play resumes. And for this, Hope gets bonus points…because they named their third tournament of the year the “Post Exam Jam”. I challenge you to find a more catchy name for a D3 tournament in this 2023-24, haha. Well-done by the Flying Dutch! Augustana and Millikin will be Hope’s two opponents at the Dec. 19-20 event.
Here’s the one that I think really hurts their SOS. I totally get wanting to get the experience of traveling and leaving the state, but when Morehouse had hinted on Hoopsville last November that they would be traveling to New York during the 2023-24 season, I had hoped it would yield a Hope-NYU matchup. But that won’t be the case. Hope will be at the Lehman College Tournament, and play two of these three: Lehman, Penn State Behrend, and Salem State.
Upon arrival back in the Midwest, they’ll jump right into conference play with a road duel against Trine. Hope lost a very strong senior class last year, but I don’t anticipate them taking a significant step backwards. Which is why this schedule is a tough one to grade.
MIAA play doesn’t help your SOS with a large separation between the top half and bottom half of the league. I’m well aware that the top teams will, at times, struggle with getting other top teams to play them. And it’s not easy to get over to the WIAC schools from Holland, Michigan, much less the ARC schools. But I thought they did a good job scheduling in non-conference. You almost have to do a double-take when you see Hope’s projected SOS sitting at .512, but a lot of that is due to the MIAA schedule. Non-conference SOS is projected to be .657, which is solid.
Schedule Grade: B
Once again, these are simply my opinions, and I’m open to feedback! Ultimately, I’m glad to see so many schedules being released as of late. There are a few notable national powers that have yet to release their 2023-24 slates, so I’ll be keeping an eye out for those. But to date, I’ve counted at least 50 schedules and that can only mean the season is getting closer! Hope everyone’s week has started well!