January 3, 2024: Top 25 Thoughts + Key conference matchups tonight
Hope everyone is having a great start to their day! We had the release of a highly-anticipated new D3hoops.com Top 25 Poll last night that I wanted to take a look at in this write-up, as well as some key games on tap tonight. The slate of matchups today is packed with several huge conference games, so get ready. We’ve got about six weeks of the regular season left…and so much is going to happen in that span of time. I’m excited to see how it all plays out!
New D3hoops.com Top 25 —> Link
New WBCA Top 25 —> Link
My Top 25 ballot breakdown —> Link
Top 25 Thoughts
Starting from the top, I was slightly surprised to NYU actually lose two first-place votes; 1 to Transylvania and 1 to Rhode Island College. Takes the margin from 21 points between No. 1 NYU and No. 2 Transylvania to just 16. Transylvania is certainly a plausible No. 1, as is RIC, but after NYU won by margins of 24 and 26 in Santa Cruz last week, I did not expect to see the Violets lose any of their 20 first-place votes. Only reaffirms what several people have said time and time again this season; even the No. 1 spot is under contention, which is a testament to the parity in D3 women’s hoops, starting from the very top spot.
It was great to see Hope break into the Top 10 at No. 9, as the Flying Dutch continue to add to their quality results. With a 12-1 record, Hope is just one of the programs that finds a way every year, even in a season in which the Flying Dutch had an entirely new starting five. I had Hope at #8, so pretty similar thinking across the board here on Hope, it seems.
Amherst at No. 10 is interesting. The Mammoths certainly pass the eye test, and as I wrote yesterday, are clearly a great team this year, with so much returning production. Losses ahead of them in the poll helped Amherst rise five spots from No. 15 to No. 10, and while that feels a little high considering the low SOS, it also makes sense. The voters have had Amherst fairly high for a couple weeks now, so the move up to a Top 10 spot is consistent with that.
Illinois Wesleyan feels like a stronger team than No. 13. That said, it was still an increase of seven spots for the Titans, from where they were in the Week 3 Poll. That is amongst the biggest jumps in this poll.
In fact, here are the numbers on the biggest risers this week → No. 14 Johns Hopkins (23 → 14), No. 9 Hope (16 → 9), No. 13 Illinois Wesleyan (20 → 13), No. 17 UW-Stout (24 → 17)
And the biggest drops → Trinity (TX) (10 → Unranked), Chicago (11 → Unranked), No. 18 Smith (9 → 18)
Towards the bottom of the poll, we knew it would be an interesting set of teams, considering the length of time between the Week 3 and Week 4 rankings. As it turned out, of the final five teams included, I had only one of them: Mary Hardin-Baylor. There was lots of differentiation, and even within the “Receiving Votes” category, six teams had at least 20 points. 19 different teams finished with votes in the poll, but were unranked.
I was most surprised on UW-Stevens Point at No. 25. First off, I congratulate the Pointers on being ranked for the first time since 2016-17, as that is not an easy feat. Nor is going 11-0. The wins over Concordia (MN) and Ripon look good. That said, UW-Oshkosh had a more sizable win over Ripon, plus wins over WashU and Wittenberg on the road. UWO, at 9-2, still hasn’t played a true home game…let that sink in. And yet, UWO earned 33 fewer points than UWSP. Interesting stuff.
I ended up having five teams on my ballot that were not in the ranking itself, including Trinity (TX), who dropped out after being No. 10 in the last poll. Losses certainly damage a team’s reputation in the eyes of the voters, and that is what happened here. WashU, despite going 4-0 in its last four and beating Wartburg handily on the road, picked up just 11 points. Scott Peterson (who also publishes his ballot publicly) and I accounted for nine of WashU’s 11 points, which came as a slight surprise. But again, a four-loss team is going to struggle to be ranked with plenty of 1-loss and 2-loss teams out there in contention. I’m not going to rehash my case for both of those teams (and Puget Sound, UW-Oshkosh, and MIT as well), but you can check out my reasoning behind putting those teams in my ballot here.
Overall, for the first 20 spots or so, my ballot looked pretty similar to the poll itself. I had Johns Hopkins at No. 12, and the Blue Jays ended up at No. 14. I had Wartburg at No. 14 and the Knights ended up at No. 12. Hardin-Simmons was No. 16 in both my ballot and the poll itself. Bowdoin was No. 19 in the poll and No. 18 on my ballot. So I think generally, most voters were on the same page with the majority of teams and their placement within the national landscape. I do feel that I have a better grasp on where everyone stacks up at this point in the season, though the ordering of my ballot was still very difficult this week. Excited to see what conference play tells us about several of these teams!
Fast Breaks
» Husson challenged No. 19 Bowdoin a little more than I would have expected, but Bowdoin emerged with a 68-64 win in what was a very competitive game. Sydney Jones had 23 points in 28 minutes for Bowdoin, as the Polar Bears avoided the upset.
» Trinity (TX) was led by tremendous guard play in an 89-61 win over Schreiner last night, as the Tigers connected on 18 3-pointers. 18! This is a team that shoots it well from the perimeter and runs an offense that creates plenty of good looks from beyond the arc.
» Manhattanville eclipsed the century mark for the first time since Nov. 14, 2022, as the Valiants beat College of Old Westbury, 100-37. Manhattanville shot 45.2% (14-of-31) from 3-point range.
» Congratulations to Whitman’s Korin Baker, who registered her 1,000th career point against Whitworth last night in a 58-52 rivalry victory. She tallied a double-double in the process, with 26 points and 14 rebounds.
» Trinity (CT) beat Babson for the second straight year and for the first time at home, winning 63-49 to open the new year. Reilly Campbell had a 20-point, 12-rebound double-double as Trinity (CT) improved to 8-4.
Looking ahead to tonight’s action
Earlham at No. 2 Transylvania, 3 pm ET: Pioneers look to win their 45th straight game.
Ohio Wesleyan at DePauw, 6 pm ET: In a wide-open NCAC title race, every game counts, and both of these teams are very much in the conference championship discussion entering league play.
Concordia-Moorhead at No. 8 Gustavus Adolphus, 6:45 pm ET: These are the top two teams in the MIAC, and this result will significantly impact the league’s regular season title race.
Wittenberg at Denison, 7 pm ET: Another key NCAC matchup here, and Denison has the home court advantage. Could be a big step forward for Denison if they find a way to win.
No. 5 Scranton at Elizabethtown, 7 pm ET: A pivotal Landmark Conference matchup for both teams, especially since Elizabethtown is playing on its home court
MIT at No. 18 Smith, 7 pm ET: Key NEWMAC battle…if MIT wins, I think they’re into the Top 25. If Smith wins, it’ll solidify the Pioneers’ place as the NEWMAC frontrunner.
No. 4 UW-Whitewater at UW-Oshkosh, 8 pm ET: One of top offenses in the WIAC against one of the best defenses.
No. 17 UW-Stout at No. 25 UW-Stevens Point, 8 pm ET: When was the last time these two teams met as ranked opponents? Great to see both programs having tremendous early-season success.
Whittier at La Verne, 10 pm ET: We could easily see the SCIAC title come down to these two teams. Neither has taken a loss in conference play yet.