January 18, 2023: My thoughts on the Week 7 Top 25 + Games to watch on tonight's slate

Just now getting a chance to write this post up…a few hours later than I would’ve liked. But nevertheless, here you go! My thoughts on this week’s new Top 25:

• Trinity (TX) makes a lot of sense at #1. I’ve had them there since late December, and NYU’s two losses left the majority of voters no choice but to put the Tigers in the top spot. At 17-0, with key wins over Hardin-Simmons (x2), UMHB, and Puget Sound, they more than deserve this ranking.

• Have heard from D3hoops.com’s Gordon Mann that Smith’s #5 ranking is the highest ranking the program has ever had. I really thought this would be a team that would eventually end up outside the Top 20. I admit with no shame that I was way wrong on Smith earlier this year…

• Also, DeSales is #6, one spot outside of their highest ranking ever, and Trinity (CT), at #17, remains the highest they have ever been ranked.

• I was honestly very surprised that UW-Whitewater dropped back as far as they did, going from #13 to #19. I still think the Warhawks have an unparalleled resume with so many Massey Top 100 wins and an overall great SOS. The WIAC is not an easy conference to win in, and yes, they should’ve dropped a bit, having lost at UW-Stout on Saturday, but Stout is a very good squad and they also took down a quality UW-Oshkosh team Wednesday. Feel like they’re closer to #15 than #20.

• Ithaca moving up three spots to #20 also came as a slight surprise. I like what the Bombers have done up to this point at 12-2, but the jump was probably more the result of Amherst losing than anything else. Still, it’s not like they had a super impressive win this past week. Victories over #160 St. Lawrence and #269 Clarkson don’t qualify for that sort of recognition. Still, I think it’s a fair ranking for Region 4’s top team.

• I was genuinely surprised that not one of these five teams ended up ranked: UW-Oshkosh, Millikin, UW-Stout, UW-La Crosse, Gustavus Adolphus. The more I analyze it, I’d probably lean in favor of UMHB over Gusty. In all honesty, UMHB probably deserved to be in the my ballot but the margin between these teams is really incredibly thin. Based on the criteria you look at, you could make a case for a number of teams to be in/out. But at the end of the day, I would take any of the five teams above over the #24 and #25 teams in Messiah and Washington & Jefferson. Hear me out. I think both Messiah and W&J are fine programs who may even be able to win in the NCAA tournament this year. But I just can’t rank either one of them as one of the nation’s “strongest” teams when neither has a quality win. W&J has an SOS of .487, and an average Massey rating of wins (average rating of the opponents they have beat) or somewhere around 245. Messiah is a little better, but with two losses and ranked 55th by Massey, they aren’t in much of a position to be ranked either, in my opinion. Massey isn’t everything, but is a great tool for evaluating teams. By comparison, Scott Peterson has W&J at #41 and Messiah at #45 in his model. Again, I still think these are great teams, but seems that there is a good handful who have reason to feel their respective resume is better at the current time.

• UMHB stays in the Top 25 at #23, which is very much warranted. The Crusaders drop three spots, but the one thing that should be noted is that, similar to UW-Oshkosh (who I’ve spoken a great deal about this season), UMHB is very young. Eight of the 13 in the main rotation are newcomers, whether as a true freshman or a transfer. While there is a great deal of talent and depth, many of those players are still getting acquainted with the new system, which can lead to some challenges. It will be interesting to see how these young teams progress not only through the remainder of this year, but in the years to come. Youth is certainly something that should be considered when evaluating the Top 25 and the teams in contention.

• Overall, I thought the voters did a great job this week. There weren’t too many surprises, especially in the #1-#20 range. There’s just so many deserving teams right now that there is a lot of variation amongst the panel in those final few spots. For example, I had five teams on my ballot this week that didn’t even crack the Top 25. Everyone sees things differently.

Now for tonight’s action…next to Saturday, Wednesdays are traditionally a prime evening for high-quality D3 hoops. Tonight will be no different! Here’s a few of the matchups I’m paying attention to.

• Albion at #13 Trine, 7:30 pm EST: It isn’t easy following up an upset with another Top 15 opponent, but that is the situation Albion finds itself in heading to Trine this evening. Trine is playing really solid basketball right now, but is also beatable. If Albion plays with the intensity it did in Saturday’s win over Hope, this could be an intriguing MIAA duel.

• UW-Stout at #16 UW-Eau Claire, 9 pm EST: The WIAC rules the Wednesday schedule (in my opinion, of course) and this is the premier game on the league’s midweek slate. Stout comes off its big home win over Whitewater this past weekend, and beat UWEC twice a year ago. Eager to avenge those losses, and ranked in the Top 15, UWEC will have both a home court backing and an experienced roster on its side. This will be a good one, no doubt. And probably one Stout has to win in order to feel comfortable its Pool C chances.

• #21 Loras at Wartburg, 6:30 pm EST: I’ve liked what I’ve seen from Wartburg as of late, having won six straight including a 20-point win over Coe. Though Loras has shown up in the biggest of moments this season, Wartburg poses a threat, playing on its home court. A Wartburg win in this situation probably wouldn’t be an “upset”, but would be a fairly surprising result nonetheless. Loras has looked very good in virtually every game it has played since December (minus the Luther contest), so it’ll be interesting to see how Wartburg approached the Duhawks, especially on defense.

• Elizabethtown at Catholic, 7 pm EST: An under-the-radar key Landmark Conference contest, both of these teams remain in the fight for Pool C bids with Scranton as the league favorite. But both need this win badly, and thoughts of conference tournament seeding are now at play as well, with just over a month until most conference tournaments tip off. I like Elizabethtown, even on the road, in this one, though Catholic is certainly more battle-tested because of its SOS.

• St. Olaf at Gustavus Adolphus, 8 pm EST: This is my “upset watch” game of the night…St. Olaf is just 4-7 in MIAC play, but has beaten both Bethel and Augsburg already on the road. The fact that those results came on the road is especially important, and while I’ve liked the Gusties throughout this season, St. Olaf definitely has a chance here. Every contest is key from here on out for Gusty, who remains in the NCAA Tournament hunt, especially with the likely possibility that the MIAC gets just one bid this year (no Pool Cs).

That’s all I got today! Looking forward to watching tonight’s action and seeing how everything unfolds. Until tomorrow, have a great day, stay positive, and keep enjoying this great division of women’s college hoops!