Forecasting the Tournament: Which teams' tournament chances increased/decreased the most this past weekend?
It's never too early to start looking at the NCAA Tournament picture!
Hope you’ve had a great start to the week! With a light slate of games tonight, and several notable results coming off last weekend, I thought it’d be timely to look at some of the teams that saw their probability of reaching the NCAA Tournament increase over the last several days, as well as a few teams that saw their odds decrease by significant amounts. I think this is notable, even in this early part of January, as it starts to give you a feel for how NPI works, and with that, how changing NPI numbers amongst a set of teams impact the NCAA Tournament picture. In some cases, a team may have put together a perfect week record-wise, yet see a noteworthy decrease in its tournament probability because of a result for another team within its conference (as you’ll see below).
All data here is courtesy of Scott Peterson’s “season simulations” model, found on d3data.weebly.com. Feel free to reach out with questions/comments/feedback at rileyzayas@gmail.com or using the comment button below.
Top 5 risers
John Carroll (+34%, 33.0% to 67.0%): The Blue Streaks are right in the OAC title race, currently holding the second-best chance at winning the OAC’s automatic bid and with a 42.1% chance to get an at-large bid when needed. At 9-2 overall, JCU finds itself in a favorable position, and the rise in its chances of making the tournament stems from an increased efficiency number. The 77-44 win over Wilmington on Saturday saw JCU finish +23 on the boards, shoot 42.4%, and record 20 assists. It will be important to see if they maintain that efficiency as they go deeper into OAC play, as a future decrease in that category (or significant rises from Baldwin Wallace, Marietta, or Ohio Northern), could drop their tournament probability as the season goes on.
Hardin-Simmons (+29%, 54% to 83%): Welcome to the world of NPI. As I noted above, there will be cases here where a team’s recent results aren’t even the biggest factor in their tournament odds increasing or decreasing. Here, we see the impact of a previous winless opponent getting its first victory. HSU played Puget Sound in a 59-39 win back on Nov. 30, and Puget Sound remained winless until Saturday, when they beat Whitworth, 92-75. Getting that first win raised Puget Sound’s NPI tremendously, thus impacting HSU’s NPI in a significant way. HSU now sits with a 44% chance of getting the ASC’s AQ and a 69.6% chance of getting an at-large when needed.
McMurry (+27%, 11.0% to 38.0%): This is a continuation of the Hardin-Simmons discussion. McMurry played HSU in a tight 64-63 loss on the third weekend of the season, and as we know, every loss gets counted in NPI. Because Puget was winless, HSU’s NPI remained lower, pushing McMurry’s NPI down and impacting the Warhawks’ chances of getting into the at-large discussion. Now, with HSU’s NPI higher, McMurry is also on the rise, with the second-best tournament probability of any SCAC team (Colorado College is #1). The Warhawks are 7-2 overall with SCAC play tipping off at Trinity on Friday. McMurry is a very skilled team, and in its first year in the SCAC since moving from the ASC, Drew Long’s squad finds itself amongst the league’s frontrunners.
Coe (+20%, 59% to 79%): At 12-1, Coe is putting itself right with Wartburg in that ARC race. The Kohawks are winners of 12 straight, and came back to conference play on Saturday with a dominant win from start to finish against Central. The 81-39 win saw Coe start on a 29-8 run and lead 51-17 at halftime, giving you an idea of just how good the Kohawks were against a Central team they beat by just 14 at home last season. That victory improved Coe’s efficiency tremendously, so like John Carroll, their odds of making the tournament went up. Wartburg remains ahead of Coe, but not by much, and it is increasingly looking like those two will be in the best position to claim tournament bids out of the ARC when selection time rolls around.
UW-Stevens Point (+20%, 53% to 73%): UWSP is once again off to a big start, now 11-1 after a pretty notable 62-44 win over UW-Platteville on the road. The Pointers stood out in a game that was projected to be much closer, outscoring Platteville, 36-23, over the final two quarters. The efficiency increase certainly contributes to UWSP’s rising tournament odds, as the Pointers now have the third-best probability of any WIAC team (UW-Oshkosh and UW-Whitewater are #1 and #2, respectively). But UWSP was also helped by decreasing percentages from UW-Stout and UW-La Crosse, who took losses in Saturday’s WIAC openers. Movement from within the conference, particularly in cases where it’s a three or four-team race, often creates situations like this, where a loss for one contender significantly boosts the chances of another for the time being.
Top 3 decreasers
Johnson & Wales (Rhode Island) (-22%, 55% to 33%): The biggest decrease belonged to J&W (RI), out of the GNAC. At 10-1, they’ve won four straight and rolled past Elms on Saturday, 86-66. So why the drop? St. Joseph’s (ME), also in the GNAC, simultaneously increased their tournament probability by 19% after winning the Framingham State Tournament this past weekend. That now makes Saint Joseph’s the favorite to win in the GNAC automatic bid (at 45%), pushing J&W into a difficult spot. The Wildcats’ at-large bid probability is essentially nonexistent (1.50% at-large when needed), so the big rise from Saint Joseph’s makes winning the GNAC AQ that much tougher for J&W.
East Texas Baptist (-19%, 75% to 56%): This is why I wanted to include decreasers in this post. Because it provides a look into the world of NPI, and a case that will happen way more as the season progresses. ETBU did nothing wrong this weekend, and in fact, the Tigers went 2-0. That included a buzzer-beating win over Millsaps, the SAA favorite. But remember how Hardin-Simmons’ tournament odds increased because of an NPI increase stemming from Puget Sound’s first win? HSU and ETBU are in the same league, so HSU’s rise forces a decrease somewhere else, particularly in the AQ conversation. So ETBU takes the brunt of that decrease, dropping by 19% with Hardin-Simmons now more likely to reach the tournament. HSU actually has better odds to win the AQ now, at 44% to ETBU’s 32%.
Houghton (-17%, 35% to 18%): In a one-bid league, like the Empire 8, it comes down to the AQ odds. And those move frequently, varying based on the efficiency numbers of the teams in the league, and of course, the conference results themselves. In other words, Houghton’s 18% tournament odds are the 18% chance the Highlanders have of winning the E8’s AQ. And much like ETBU’s situation, Houghton’s decrease came in large part due to the increase in St. John Fisher and Nazareth’s probability of taking the E8 title. SJF’s NPI improved after Rochester made a 67-spot jump in NPI, beating a very good Cortland team on Saturday. Because SJF has a win over Rochester, the Cardinals benefitted, and raised their chances of reaching the tournament by 11% (to 36%). Nazareth, now 7-3, went 2-0 in its holiday tournament, and saw a minor 4% increase in its tournament odds. This, along with a slight impact from some continued losses from Houghton’s weaker previous opponents, pushed the Highlanders down to No. 4 amongst E8 teams. It should be noted that this scenario, and really all of the others mentioned above in which other results impact a particular team, were present in the old selection system. It’s not simply because of NPI that this is now a discussion point. But the introduction of NPI this season has now made it far easier for us to evaluate the NCAA Tournament picture at this juncture, considering the numbers are updated daily, and provide for a very clear, cut-and-dry look at which teams are rising and falling across the board.