February 21, 2023: A look at my Top 25 ballot + Games to watch in conference tournament action tonight
Well, it’s hard to believe but this week was the last in-season D3hoops.com Top 25 poll we will do. There will be a final one following the NCAA Tournament, but that is the postseason poll. It is crazy to think that we have already progressed through an entire season. My knowledge of so many D3 women’s programs has grown exponentially over the last several months, and I’ve enjoyed discussing my ballot here each week. So here is a look at how I voted this past week…never easy…and there were certainly some good teams left out. But anyway, here you go!
1-Christopher Newport: Undefeated entering the C2C Tournament, I don’t see anyone else to put here. They have a balanced enough resume with a 1000 win percentage but also an SOS above .500 (.555).
2-NYU: The Violets jumped up about three spots in my ballot after completing the toughest double in the UAA, beating Emory on Friday in Atlanta, then Rochester on Sunday in western New York. NYU also has a fairly balanced resume between Emory and Rochester.
3-Smith: The #1 overall seed in the Top 16 reveal, Smith has erased my early-season doubts about them and where they stack up nationally. They’ve got a ton of outstanding wins, are 24-1, and have a very strong starting lineup that can produce. Smith is a second weekend host in my opinion.
4-Scranton: Another undefeated team through the regular season, the Lady Royals rose to the occasion in the games in which they were tested, particularly against Elizabethtown in Landmark Conference play. Scranton is rolling heading into the postseason.
5-Trinity (TX): I still really like what Trinity has done for the majority of this season, though their SOS number has certainly taken a drop with the way the SCAC is oriented with several very weak teams in the league. On top of that, the VERY narrow win over Texas Lutheran (at home!) this past week is cause for concern, even more so than the loss to Colorado College. This team has tremendous senior leadership, and hopefully will be back on track at home in the SCAC Tourney this week.
6- Transylvania: Transy keeps doing their thing, and was listed in the Top 16 reveal despite the low SOS. So as long as they close things out in the HCAC Tournament this week, which I fully expect they will, they’ll be hosting in the first weekend. The Pioneers have the potential to make a Final Four run, I just don’t have enough info on them to rank them ahead of some of these others I have in the Top 5.
7- Hope: The Flying Dutch may not be the same team as last year, but they don’t seem to be far off. Morehouse has them playing together (which is huge) and the seniors have stepped up in a big way throughout MIAA play. They’re 23-2 heading into the postseason.
8-Hardin-Simmons: I really liked the offensive intensity from HSU on Saturday against UMHB…they were fantastic from 3-point range, and their guard play is very strong. Going 18-0 in the ASC is difficult to do, and as a result, I'm fairly confident of their chances to win the whole ASC Tournament this week. If Trinity (TX) were to lose in the SCAC Tournament, would HSU get to host instead? Who knows. But there’s a ton for HSU to play for this week with that considered.
9-DeSales: The revenge win over Stevens this past week was huge. Based on that victory, along with all the other wins they have, I’m keeping them in my Top 10.
10-Gustavus Adolphus: The Gusties were #10 in my ballot and #10 in the poll so I think we’re all seeing them fairly similar right now. They’ve run away as the best team in the MIAC and I really like their chances to advance to the second weekend, even playing in a very difficult pod with at least one WIAC team (I’d expect).
11-Trine: The Thunder closed the regular season with wins over St. Mary’s and Adrian and are very close with Hope atop the MIAA. I wouldn’t count Trine out in this week’s conference tournament.
12-UW-Whitewater: Yes, they lost to UW-Platteville for a second time this past week. I dropped them four spots in part because of that. But I still really believe in the fact that while Whitewater hasn’t won as many games as most of the teams in my Top 15, the level of competition they have faced will be huge come tournament time. They have played more “tournament-type” games than perhaps many of the teams in D3 WBB, and are battle-tested.
13-Trinity CT- The Bantams slid past Amherst by just one point in the NESCAC quarterfinals in an interesting result this past Saturday. The duel against Williams in the NESCAC semis will be very telling as to how well Trinity has rebounded from the 1-3 end to the regular season.
14-WashU: They dropped completely out of the Top 25 this week, but I still think the Bears are very difficult to defend and on any given night, can beat most of the teams in this Top 25. I watched most of their games this season, and while I understand losing to Case Western Reserve at home, and barely sliding past CMU this past week, the duo of Maya Arnott and Jessica Brooks is extremely strong, not to mention the bench that WashU has.
15-Chicago: Like WashU, the Maroons had their challenges against CWRU and CMU this past week at home, but they did end up going 2-0. I can’t figure out Chicago completely yet, but will be interested to see them in a first weekend NCAA Tournament scenario.
16-Millikin: Rolling into the CCIW Tournament, Millikin came up with a big win over Carroll to close the regular season on Saturday. They dropped off every ballot in the first few weeks of the season, but are now rising back in the poll.
17-Tufts: The Jumbos are back in my ballot! It’s about time. They’ve looked very good in their last 5 games and this is a situation where I’m valuing recent results a little bit more than the overall season results all together. But then again, Tufts has some very solid results dating all the way back to November.
18-Loras: The win over Wartburg on Saturday was key. The Duhawks looked very sharp, and this is a team that I’m super excited to watch in the national tournament. They’ve remained consistent for the last several months, and are my pick to win the ARC Tournament.
19-Babson: The Beavers have really elevated their level of play the last few weeks. Their .624 SOS is exceptional, not to mention an .840 win percentage. Babson is certainly a Top 20 team for me, though I’m not sure if they should be closer to 10 or closer to 20.
20-Wartburg: Another very strong team out of the ARC, the Knights split the season series with Loras, and are definitely on the bubble in a very deep Region 9. I think they will end up being on the right side of that bubble in the case that they don’t win the ARC Tournament, but I also wouldn’t doubt the Knights ability to capture that Pool A.
21-UW-Oshkosh: Here starts my “3 WIAC teams in my last 5” section…the WIAC is so deep, and I just didn’t see anyone with the resume of these teams. Oshkosh has done great work in the WIAC and is the No. 2 team in R9 (in my opinion) behind Whitewater. The SOS is there (.636), and so is the win percentage (.720). Those numbers will change with the WIAC Tournament starting tonight, but I am very convinced that UWO belongs in both the Top 25 and the NCAA Tournament. This is where the D3hoops.com poll differs from the selection committee. Oshkosh could be one of the first 4 teams off the board if they end up in the Pool C discussion, and yet, I accounted for all 5 of their points in the Top 25 this week!
22-UW-Eau Claire: Here’s another WIAC for you…Yes. I was responsible for all 4 points they received this week as well. You can’t deny the nature of a team being battle-tested. You can play all the sub-Massey 100 teams you want, but the ones that will prepare you for the tournament are those challenging matchups on the road. UWEC has plenty of those, and while they’ve taken a few losses because of it, I’m not ready to move them out of my Top 25 yet. They haven’t looked terrific the last couple weeks, but if they find their spark, they could easily win the whole WIAC Tournament.
23-Puget Sound: The Loggers still remain NWC’s top team, though Whitman is closing the gap. I’ll be very interested to watch the NWC Tournament play out. PS has some very strong results, and then a few losses that somewhat diminish the resume. They’re a tough one to slot when comparing with other teams across the nation.
24-UW-Stout: The dominant win over UWEC to close out the regular season was a big statement for the Blue Devils, who claimed a share of the WIAC regular season title. Of all the WIAC teams in my Top 25, I think Stout is the one who needs the Pool A most. They’re still very much in the Pool C conversation, but the SOS just isn’t quite up to the same level, and the .720 win percentage is good, but not the best in what is a very stacked R9.
25-Baldwin Wallace: I’ve been pretty skeptical of the OAC’s top teams this season, and maybe that’s not fair, but BW losing to John Carroll and then narrowly beating Capital this past week is cause for question. I really wasn’t sure who to put here at #25. I think BW has the talent to make a tournament run, but they have to put it all together at the same time.
26-Ithaca
27-Calvin
28-Ohio Northern
29-Elizabethtown
30-UC Santa Cruz
Some of the games I’ll be paying attention to tonight. It is time for postseason basketball!
UW-Platteville at UW-Eau Claire, 8:05 pm EST: UWP is a dangerous team, as UW-Whitewater has learned twice this season, and with the inconsistent way UWEC has been playing recently, as talented as the Blugolds are, I think this could be one decided by single digits if UWP can put up a strong defensive effort.
Sul Ross State at UT-Dallas, 8:00 pm EST: These are two very competitive teams within the middle of the ASC, and honestly, both have shown flashes of being able to play with the ASC’s best. Looking forward to this battle.
UW-La Crosse at UW-Oshkosh, 8:00 pm EST: Another very tight battle in the WIAC Tournament here. UWO needs to win at least once in this tournament to completely solidify its Pool C resume, but once again, the excitement of this tournament this year is that any one of the six teams, regardless of seeding, has a chance to win the whole thing.
John Carroll at Baldwin Wallace, 7:00 pm EST: Well…this is the fun of a conference tournament. JCU just beat BW last week, now the two are playing again. And this is a win-or-go home situation for JCU. I can’t wait for this battle to unfold.
You can find all the livestream links and a complete schedule on D3hoops.com. Until tomorrow, have a great evening! I’ll be at the UMHB vs Concordia women’s basketball ASC Tournament game tonight, but I’ll be following games from around the country and try to tweet (@ZayasRiley) when relevant/neccessary.