Early Preseason Top 30: Part III
I’m back, and I’ve got the next five teams in my Early Preseason Top 30, ready to release. Before I get to that I do want to note that I miswrote one detail in mentioning UW-Stout on Tuesday. I had written that it was Strength of Schedule that primarily contributed to Stout being left out of the NCAA Tournament. What I meant to say was that, while the SOS was decent, it was the winning percentage that hurt the Blue Devils. 17-8 just wasn’t good enough in a stacked region, and a few early losses didn’t help. Anyway, just wanted to point that out. I realized my mistake about five minutes after hitting “publish”…ugh.
Alright, now for the next five teams in my early ranking…remember, this is simply my perspective on things, and yes, we are only in August! It is very possible that there are roster changes that I don’t yet know about that could certainly affect things.
#20: Mary Hardin-Baylor (2022-23 record: 19-8): UMHB is one of two teams in my Top 20 who did not make the NCAA Tournament last season. But if you remember, UMHB was ranked No. 9 in the D3hoops.com Top 25 early in the season before struggling down the stretch and falling out of the Top 25 completely. All that to say, the Crusaders are justifiably a Top 20 team entering this season, because of a few factors, I’ll mention here in a second. At the same time, I understand those who might be more likely to leave them outside the Top 25.
UMHB returns the majority of its main rotation, which is key in a region where several of the top players last season graduated (on teams like UC-Santa Cruz, Trinity (TX), and Hardin-Simmons). They’ll be led by a new head coach in Katie Novak-Lenoir, who head coached at Sul Ross State before taking over at D2 Hawaii Pacific last season. She’s already brought in Alexis Carmosino, a former standout guard at Sul Ross, and all the pieces are there in the returning group. Plus, the ASC is a fairly wide-open conference title race, with a number of contenders. Arieona Rosborough and Ashley Faux, who were arguably two of the team’s most consistent players through last season, are among that returning group, and should provide some quality veteran leadership as UMHB navigates its season.
#19: Trinity (TX) (2022-23 record: 28-2): Trinity is a major wild card for me. I could see them being in the Top 15. I could also see them outside the Top 30. Like Millikin, and Hope, and Hardin-Simmons, the departures concern me, because the senior classes for those programs were incredibly talented. It’s very difficult to replace the experience and poise that a fifth-year senior brings to the table. Trinity returns just 51% of last year’s team, and leading scorers Ashlyn Milton and Maggie Shipley both graduated. But as I look at Trinity’s returning group, I still see plenty of talent and experience on the roster. Josie Napoli averaged 11.2 PPG in 29 starts as a sophomore, and Maggie Robbins started 20 games as a junior last season, averaging 9.0 PPG.
It will be a very new-look Trinity team, but head coach Cameron Hill always recruits well and does a good job of keeping a core rotation on the court while still giving the younger players on the roster game experience. Natalie Anderson is likely to be a key for the Tigers in the post, after playing in 29 games (3.4 RPG) as a freshman and A’Nika Saenz should provide some added depth at the guard position. The non-conference schedule, with games against Puget Sound and Ohio Northern, will test Trinity within the first two months of the season.
#18: Elizabethtown (2022-23 record: 23-5): The Blue Jays turned in a second straight 20-win season last year, and are looking to do the same again in 2023-24. And I fully expect them to. The roster was very young last season, and those returners will be a year older, with another year of experience playing in the Landmark Conference. 90% of the roster comes back, including Summer McNulty, who was a Fifth Team D3hoops.com All-America selection as a sophomore.
The Landmark will be very interesting this time around, as the addition of Lycoming and Wilkes could create a situation where the league earns just one NCAA Tournament bid (meaning only the conference tournament champ gets in via Pool A and no Pool C). 18 conferences games is a lot. With Scranton also atop the Landmark, who knows what’s going to happen. All I know is that those Scranton-ETown matchups will be very crucial.
But enough of that. I’m ranking teams based on talent level and potential on a national scale. Elizabethtown has all the components to be a national contender this year. With a very similar roster this past spring, they took down nationally-ranked Stevens, and hung tight with CNU, before falling 65-55. Still waiting on a schedule, but I do know they’ll play at a tournament in Puerto Rico before Christmas that features a fairly strong field.
#17: Amherst (2022-23 record: 17-8): The Mammoths did not going dancing in March for the first time in a very long time. It even felt strange to not have them ranked in the Top 25, considering it’d be so long since a Top 25 poll had not included Amherst in it. But it was a down year on all accounts…but the reason was pretty simple. They were incredibly young, with five of the 12 players being freshmen. The Mammoths also did not have a senior on the roster. That said, it’s the main reason I have Amherst as high as I do. 17-8 is a respectable record, as is 5-5 in a league that produced two strong NCAA Tournament teams in Trinity and Tufts. And this year, everyone comes back. The chemistry is already built-in, and I would expect the rotation will remain similar. Senior Reeya Patel is a consistent force at point guard and don’t be surprised if junior Kori Barach establishes herself as one of the NESCAC’s best scoring guards. Still don’t have a full schedule for Amherst, but their non-conference slate rarely disappoints. We’ll see early on if the Mammoths are indeed a Top 20 team.
#16: Whitman (2022-23 record: 22-6): Out in Region 10 for the third time as I go through teams #16-#20, Whitman sticks out as the strongest program in this west region. They don’t bring back as many as UMHB does, and it’s not like the NWC is easy, with Puget Sound very much in contention. But Whitman is coming off a strong season and more importantly, will be anchored by upperclassmen Korin Baker and Carly Martin, who averaged double figures in points last season.
Sure, 79% of the roster coming back is great. But what’s better? The fact that everyone who started a game for Whitman last year is back, with the exception of Elena McHargue, who averaged 13.0 PPG and graduated this past spring. The Blues were literally one shot away from clinching an appearance in the Sweet 16 last year, and I anticipate a deep postseason run being in the cards for this team. I think we will learn a lot about this group in Nashville, Tennessee, of all places, where they play Wartburg and Christopher Newport, both of whom are likely to be in the Top 10, in mid-December. That will be the big non-conference test for Whitman.
Coming up tomorrow—> Teams #11-#15