Early Preseason Top 30: Part II
Looking at teams #21-#25...
Alright…the initial release of teams #26-#30 in my Early Preseason Top 30 was pretty well received, so let’s go on down to the #21-#25 teams in my ranking!
#25: Wisconsin-Oshkosh (2022-23 record: 20-9): First WIAC team in my ranking, and certainly not the last. Oshkosh is coming off a Second Round NCAA Tournament appearance and is anticipated to return about 75% of its roster from that team, including forward/center Sarah Hardwick, who averaged 6.4 PPG and 5.6 RPG as a true freshman last year. The young talent at UWO gained invaluable experience navigating through the brutal WIAC slate last season, and appears ready to make a serious run at the conference title.
The WIAC is so deep from top to bottom that it’s nearly impossible to predict how this will all play out, but Oshkosh has emerged as a leading contender with its returning production. We’re still waiting to see how the schedule will look, but the Titans are likely to pick up a few RRO opportunities in non-conference, and should have a solid SOS once again, which will be important. What the WIAC teams lose in winning percentage (with the parity in the conference) they more than make up for with SOS. Of the six WIAC teams who have released schedules, Scott’s model has all of them finishing with an SOS of .590 or better. Three teams boast a projected SOS of at least .620.
#24: Messiah (2022-23 record: 26-3): Messiah has the chance to be very competitive on a national scale coming out of Region 5. Similar to last year, I anticipate a high winning percentage for a squad that last lost a conference game on Feb. 19, 2022. They were 16-0 last season in MACC play. While I did my fair share of doubting due to their low SOS, Messiah prevailed against Bridgewater State in the First Round of the tournament before falling to NYU.
This is a program that prides itself on defense (gave up just 47.3 PPG in ‘22-’23), which will make for an interesting matchup against DeSales on Dec. 6. DeSales is also talented, stingy on the defensive end, and Messiah is likely to have the advantage in that one, considering they’ll be playing at home. Games at Mary Washington and UW-Whitewater (neutral court) should improve Messiah’s SOS. Lots to like about this squad, which is expected to return two of its top three scorers.
#23: Wisconsin-Stout (2022-23 Record: 18-8): Another WIAC team in this section of my Top 30! The Blue Devils burst onto the WIAC scene last year, after getting off to a 10-1 start. The 10-4 WIAC record and co-WIAC regular season championship was a major step in the right direction for a team that had lost its final two regular season games and its lone WIAC Tournament game in ‘21-’22. Behind the play of a few young standouts, Stout enters this season very much in the title conversation. While they were left out of the NCAA Tournament last season (presumably due to a low SOS), this looks to be the year Stout makes it back to the national postseason stage. Stout’s last tournament appearance came in 2007.
Raegan Sorensen returns after a strong sophomore year that saw her tally 15.8 PPG and 7.3 RPG, both team-highs. A dynamic guard that can run the floor, Sorensen might be on the WIAC’s best guards in the 2022-23 season. Anna Mutch is also back after starting all 26 games and shooting 50.8% from the field with 12.8 PPG. Mutch and forward Amanda Giesen were vital to Stout’s success last year, and will once again be key on both ends of the floor for the Blue Devils. The fact that Stout returns 97% of last year’s squad is a big reason I put them inside my Top 25.
#22 Chicago (2022-23 record: 23-5): Chicago brings back just 61% from last year’s team that made a run to the second weekend of the tournament, but I expect the Maroons to keep up their high level of play this winter. The UAA schedule is one of the best conference schedules out there from an SOS standpoint, and talent-wise, Chicago won’t be lacking.
Grace Hynes will be missed (16.3 PPG), but Sophia North (11.9 PPG) rose to the occasion a number of times last year (including the win over UW-Whitewater) and returns for her senior year. Marissa Powe and Ellie Gross were also key weapons on the offensive end, and their presence will add depth to Chicago’s backcourt. The question mark is really in the post, with the departure of Mallory Brodnik, so I am interested to see how that factors into things. But overall, Chicago is once again a frontrunner in the UAA, in my opinion. Their first big test comes on Dec. 2 at UW-Whitewater, though a duel with Illinois Wesleyan could be interesting as well.
#21: Babson (2022-23 Record: 26-6): As of yesterday afternoon, Babson has a new head coach in former Tufts standout Kate Barnosky. The retirement of Judy Blinstrub a few weeks ago meant that for the first time in about four decades, Babson will have a new head coach. Barnosky comes from Wisconsin, where she coached for two seasons, and was the associate head coach this past year. The program is definitely in good hands with Barnosky leading the charge. Megan Bauman graduated, which makes me slightly nervous to put Babson at 21, considering how key she was to the Beavers’ success. Samantha Smith, another 32-game starter, also graduated, so that is two major holes for Babson to fill.
But I think the talent is still there for Babson to win the NEWMAC. Kelly Walsh seems to be in for a strong senior campaign after averaging 12.3 PPG as Babson’s third-leading scorer. Katelyn Mollica also stood out in the games I watched last year, as she handled the ball well, averaged 9.0 PPG, and started all 32 games. Experience is important, and this year’s Babson team has that. Walsh and Mollica will be in new roles, likely taking a few more shots this season, so that will be an interesting storyline to follow.
Three road games and a neutral court game open the season for Babson and the Nov. 26 duel with Rhode Island College will be a game to watch in non-conference action. Scott’s model has Babson with a .570 projected SOS.
Coming tomorrow —> Teams #16-#20
Schedule Ranking I reference —> https://d3data.weebly.com/2024-schedule-ranking.html
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