Early Preseason Top 30: Part 5
Looking at teams #6-#10 today
Hope everyone is having a good start to their Monday! We’ll be in September by the end of this week, and that much closer to the tip-off of the 2023-24 season.
I’ve got the last two parts of my Early Preseason Top 30 coming today and tomorrow. I thought about releasing them over the weekend, but figured more people are likely to be seeing this article in their email during the week. The Top 10 has been tough, because I’ve changed around a few teams as I’ve been given additional insight. Overall, I feel pretty comfortable with where I have everyone. Doesn’t mean my projections will be right, though!
I should also note that I went long in writing these. I tend to do that, so I apologize in advance. But I feel like it is all insightful, especially when talking about some of the best teams in the country. So here we go….
#10 Smith (2022-23 record: 30-2): Coming off a Final Four run, this figures to be an interesting year for the Pioneers. I don’t have any inside info to know how many of their seniors they might be bringing back as graduate students, but I know that WBCA Player of the Year Morgan Morrision will not be back (she transferred to NYU….more on that tomorrow), and Katelyn Pickunka and Dashelle Gleissner were both graduate students last season. However, Smith returns a trio of guards who enter their senior years and will guide this team.
Ally Yamada only started five games in 2022-23, but was a spark off the bench, averaging 10.8 points per game. She is likely to move into that starting point guard role, and will be joined by Jessie Ruffner and Amelia Clairmont in the backcourt. Both are great with ball in their hands, and started the majority of Smith’s games last season. Clairmont tallied 31 starts, Ruffner had 27. That is a very beneficial level of experience to bring back, especially as Smith will probably be young in the post.
Without Morrison (and with the guess that Pickunka will not return), the Pioneers have just two players on the roster who started at least one game last year; Jazmyn Washington and Ella Sylvester. Both were listed as “guard/forward” on the 2022-23 roster. That’s the only reason I don’t have Smith in the top five. I think they could be in for another strong year, but it might take some time for the entire rotation to find a rhythm, with a more inexperienced starting five this season.
First big game of the year comes on Nov. 26, when Smith hosts Trinity. Expecting that to be a Top 10 matchup.
#9: Gustavus Adolphus (2022-23 record: 26-3): I really thought the Gusties had a chance to go far in last year’s NCAA Tournament, but you never know with the midwest teams. UW-Whitewater sent them home in a 68-63 Second Round victory, but regardless, Gustavus Adolphus was one of the midwest’s best last year. No doubt the MIAC schedule hurts them (not much you can do with just three non-conference games), but it is what it is. I’m looking for the most talented and strongest teams entering the preseason. The Gusties certainly fit that category.
Kylie Baranick is back at guard after starting in all 29 games a year ago, and ranking second on the team in points per game (11.0). I expect she’ll take a step forwards in her junior year, especially if leading scorer Anna Sanders does not return (Sanders was a senior last year, but has her extra year of eligibility remaining). Baranick also brings a great passing ability to Gustavus’ offense, with a team-high 112 assists last year. Emma Kniefel is another 29-game starter who should be back after tallying 10.7 PPG. Junior Rachel Kawiecki is the third starter expected to return, and once again, she started every game for the Gusties in 2022-23.
Kawiecki should team up well with Izzy Quick in the post, as both are talented, agile forwards who can score around the basket. Quick started the first nine games of last season, before leaving the Luther game after just seven minutes. She did not return for the rest of the season, which I am guessing is due to injury. Having her back will be key to the Gusties’ success.
With those four returning starters all one year older, I expect a strong season out of the defending MIAC champs. Depth shouldn’t be an issue and I don’t see any MIAC challengers being able to take down Gustavus through conference play.
#8: Baldwin Wallace (2022-23 record: 22-6): I’ll be the first to admit that I wasn’t sold on Baldwin Wallace last year. They ended up falling to Marietta in the OAC semifinals and lost to a very good Wartburg team in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. That said, I’m much more optimistic this season. Like with all of these picks, only time will tell to see if I’m right or wrong about a lot of these teams, but Baldwin Wallace has reason to be confident entering 2023-24.
One of the things that has led me to put BW in the Top 10 is the returning talent and senior-laden roster. This was a team of mostly juniors and sophomores a year ago, all of whom now have one more year of college basketball under their belts. Their top three scorers were all sophomores who should be back this season, and two of those standouts—Bella Vaillant and Caely Ressler—were the team’s leading rebounders. As long as Vaillant, Ressler, and Emily Irwin are on the same page, I expect BW will rise high in the Top 25 poll.
I’m unsure if Regan Schill, who was a senior last year but has extra eligibility, will return. Megan Hensel also started every game last season as a graduate student. Having those two back could propel BW even higher in my preseason ranking. For now, I only accounted for Vaillant, Ressler, and Irwin as the returning starters.
The schedule is not yet set as the default schedule on the BW website, but you can find it if you manually change the URL. Not going to do a schedule breakdown here, but the season-opening matchup against Gettysburg should be a great test right out of the gate. A road trip to Trine the following week is another non-conference game involving BW that I’ll be keeping an eye on.
#7: Wartburg (2022-23 record: 23-7): I feel like the ARC was the most underrated conference in the country last year. We talked plenty about the WIAC, the UAA, and the NESCAC (and rightfully so), but the ARC had two teams in Loras and Wartburg who were legitimate contenders on a national stage. And I didn’t see either as contenders when the season started.
Wartburg got into the NCAA Tournament as the final Pool C team, and the committee was certainly correct in choosing the Knights over the other teams still sitting at the table at that point. Wartburg reached the Sweet 16 before falling to then-No. 1 Christopher Newport by a nine-point margin.
But here’s the deal. That whole team is back, with the exception of Macy Harris, who was a senior, and may or may not be using that fifth year. Forward Jaedon Murphy will be a senior after tallying 13.9 points and 5.7 rebounds per game (both team-highs) last season. She is incredibly tough to defend, especially in the paint. Sara Faber is undoubtedly one of the best guards in the ARC, and averaged 13.7 PPG last season. Joining her in the backcourt will be senior Britney Young, who was the team’s top 3-point shooter.
There is no weakness on this roster, and that’ll quickly land you in the Top 10 conversation. I’ll be surprised if Wartburg isn’t a Top 10 team when the actual D3hoops.com Preseason Poll comes out in October. They’re going to be tough for anyone to stop. I need to be careful making too many statements like this, but I think there is a good chance Wartburg finishes the regular season undefeated. Don’t get me wrong, I think Loras will be extremely competitive, and if anyone is going to beat Wartburg, it’s Loras. But non-conference wise, I don’t see anybody who I’d give more than a 30% chance to win, besides Whitman.
#6: Trinity (CT) (2022-23 record: 25-6): The Bantams were a force to be reckoned with throughout last season, especially amongst the best teams in the northeast. They had their struggles down the stretch in the NESCAC play, but ultimately reached the NCAA Tournamnt quarterfinals.
Trinity’s SOS was strong last season, and this year won’t be any different. At a projected SOS of .675, the Bantams currently have the highest SOS projection in Scott Peterson’s schedule model. That is impressive. Not only will they face a number of great teams in conference play, but in non-conference action, Ithaca, Stevens, Smith, Rhode Island College, Roger Williams, and Babson are all featured on the schedule.
Whenever a team’s top two scorers are set to return, it often seems to be an indication of a successful season ahead. Consistency, especially on the offensive end, is difficult to replace, so having Reilly Campbell and Emma Wax on the roster as seniors will be key for Trinity. At 6-foot-2, Campbell has the height and skill set in the post to be very effective, as she demonstrated a season ago, averaging 15.5 points and 11.0 rebounds per contest. Emma Wax, a forward, was Trinity’s leader in assists last season, with 94, in addition to averaging 10.1 points per game.
Beyond that duo, guard Hannah Marzo should be back for her junior year after starting 24 games as a sophomore. She saw action in an average of just over 22 minutes per game, and scored the ball when needed. Good chance that her scoring role expands a bit this season. Melissa Whitmore is another player to be paying attention to. A transfer from D1 Stonehill, she started 13 games and played in 20 as a freshman there last season, averaging 5.8 points and 2.8 boards per game. Not a bad stat line for a true freshman at the D1 level!
As I got set to hit “publish” on this, I heard that Bria Fuller is returning as a “super senior” for her 5th year. That is huge. She was Trinity’s third leading scorer and a force in the backcourt last year, starting all 31 games. I don’t think depth will be an issue. The roster was fairly young in 2022-23, so that is likely to benefit the Bantams as well entering this season.
That’s all for today! Five more teams to go in this early preseason ranking. Have a great day!