Cru comeback hands No. 2 Wartburg first loss, IWU holds steady in yet another Top 25 win
I’m getting this out a little late with several games already underway, but wanted to highlight some of my takeaways from yesterday’s big results (including the one I was at in Belton, Texas) in the world of Division III women’s hoops. We’re now in holiday tournament time, with classics and tournaments tipping off across the country and games nearly all afternoon and evening. I expect us to get a decent amount of insight on top-tier teams this week, with at least four Top 25 teams in action each of the next three days.
Tipping Off
UMHB’s comeback was one to remember
When you trail by 19 just 11 minutes into a game against the No. 2 team in the country, chances of winning decrease pretty significantly. But Mary Hardin-Baylor pulled off the impossible on Tuesday afternoon in a 67-64 upset over Wartburg, stunning the Knights, who shot just 20.7% in the second half. The Cru battled back from a 15-point deficit at the half, and despite not scoring for nearly four minutes in the third, relied on stellar defense to keep them in contention. Then came a 17-0 run that took them from trailing by 16 to leading by 1, and UMHB held onto its lead for the game’s final 7:08, pulling off the program’s highest-ranked win in history. It was a tremendous step forward for a team that came up on the losing end of a 64-50 result at Whitman last Thursday, and brought back just one returning starter from last year’s NCAA Tournament team. The cohesiveness is beginning to become evident, and that’s a good sign for a squad that needed to learn to play together this season, considering 10 of the 17 on Katie Novak-Lenoir’s roster are newcomers. The comeback was a testament to that, highlighted by 22 points from Western Texas College transfer Rachel Okoye, 11 of which came in the second half.
The game’s final play:
No. 3 Illinois Wesleyan looked dominant against No. 18 Chicago
Make that 4-for-4 against Top 25 opponents for the Titans. IWU looked great yet again on Tuesday night against stiff competition, going up 30-20 at the half in an eventual 71-52 victory. In fact, Scott Peterson said on X/Twitter last night that it was his “2nd most dominant game performance so far this year” based on a stat that factors in point differential, rebound differential, turnover differential and “scales” by the opponent’s Massey rating. In other words, the stats back up the fact that the Titans’ 10th win was also one of their strongest thus far. They won by 19, had a +16 turnover margin (and 30 pts off TOs), and shot over 50% in both the third and fourth quarters…all against Massey’s #6 team. What more can you ask for? That 10-0 record carries with it some significant weight, considering not only are the Titans #2 in Massey overall, but they also rank #1 in both Strength-of-Schedule and NPI right now. Without question, the Titans should be No. 2 in next week’s Top 25.
Wartburg is going to be just fine
For as much as the Knights struggled in the second half, it seems pretty clear that half was an anomaly compared to Wartburg’s total body of work so far. The first quarter alone saw Wartburg shoot 9-of-12 from the field, and they looked every bit like the nation’s No. 2 team for the first half. It’d be illogical to change an opinion of a team based on one severely uncharacteristic cold shooting stretch, especially when it comes after such a strong start. I can’t guarantee Wartburg won’t move in my ballot this next week—today’s matchup against East Texas Baptist will give us a good idea of how the Knights respond to a loss—but there’s no need to overreact. Remember, they did this last year too. The Music City Classic saw the Knights get blown out by Whitman, 85-51, only to answer by turning around and dominating DePauw the next day, 89-40. We’ll see if Wartburg follows a similar pattern this time around.
Around the nation
I look forward to seeing how Hanover matches up with Mass-Dartmouth later today in Puerto Rico. I think Hanover may end up being the surprise in the HCAC, having put together a 7-2 record thus far. But the Panthers still lack a Top 100 Massey win, and have one opportunity left in non-conference play to add one to their resume.
The OAC is going to be fun to watch. I wrote about Capital’s big win over Ohio Wesleyan yesterday, and as I was writing that, John Carroll pulled off an OT win over a quality St. Benedict squad in Puerto Rico. Between what we’ve seen from Baldwin Wallace, Capital, and John Carroll now, plus Ohio Northern clearly being a tough out, it’s possible we see this come down to a tight four-team race with no more than two programs actually ending up with tournament-viable resumes.
In terms of most surprising results yesterday, I think Loras’ 62-49 win over Wisconsin Lutheran is up there. The Duhawks have played an incredibly tough schedule with a younger team, and it shows in their 2-7 record. But nothing held Loras back yesterday against WLC. Claire Wagner had 25 points, the Duhawks went on a 19-2 run in the second quarter, and WLC just couldn’t keep up offensively. Loras’ defense has really come along well and it’s nice to see the offense following suit.
I think we need to consider McMurry as a true challenger to Colorado College in the SCAC. The Warhawks come over from the ASC and the rebuild under Drew Long continues to lead McMurry to more and more success. They’re 4-1 after yesterday’s 67-56 win over ETBU in Belton, and that lone loss is to Hardin-Simmons in a game McMurry would’ve won if not for a late (and questionable) foul call on a 3-point shot. Kylie Flippin (16.0 PPG) and Emily Holland (12.4 PPG) lead the way, and the Warhawks get Mary Hardin-Baylor in a true road game this afternoon.
Most impactful games of the day (all times ET)
St. Joseph (CT) (3-3) at Bridgewater (VA) (9-0) (San Juan Classic), 1:30 p.m.
No. 2 Wartburg (8-1) vs East Texas Baptist (8-2, 3:00 p.m.
Rhode Island College (6-3) vs Randolph-Macon (7-1) (San Juan Classic), 4:30 p.m.
McMurry (4-1) at Mary Hardin-Baylor (8-2), 5:00 p.m.
No. 21 Mass-Dartmouth (6-1) vs Hanover (7-2) (San Juan Classic), 6:30 p.m.