Conference Predictions: The NESCAC
A short preview of one of the more unpredictable and highly-respected leagues in Division III women's hoops
At this point in the year, with games having not yet been played and last season still serving as our primary understanding of the teams in question, it’s easy to have an open mind with many of these league title races. On paper, you often find that more than one team has a case to be a conference’s preseason favorite, whether due to a significant number of returning starters, a noted impact transfer, or a Preseason All-American headlining the roster. That seems to be no more true than in the NESCAC, a conference that has just one team in the D3hoops.com Preseason Top 25, yet at least three additional programs, maybe even four, with a legitimate reason to be considered as the frontrunner in this prestigious conference. So I’ll give my pick to win a little later in this post, but this will look more like a preview than a prediction. Certain conferences seem to warrant this as I progress through my preseason coverage, and the NESCAC finds itself atop that list. The single round-robin nature of the league schedule, meaning everyone faces each other just once, only adds to the unpredictability of the NESCAC. With only 10 conference games for each team, there is more of an opportunity for upsets to significantly affect the conference title race.
Bowdoin notably opens the coming season as the NESCAC’s lone representative in the first Top 25 poll, slotted at No. 5, the same exact ranking the Polar Bears held at the conclusion of last season. The pieces are there, even with the departure of two starters—Jess Giorgio and Megan Tan—as Sydney Jones, the reigning NESCAC Player of the Year returns along with Carly Davey and Callie Godfrey. Coming off an Elite Eight run last season with its top three scorers, all of whom started at least 30 games, it’d be high not to have high expectations for the Polar Bears.
Bates was on the outside looking in with the initial Top 25 poll, just two points away from earning the 25th spot. The Bobcats have two starters back, but seven players who averaged at least 10 min/game and 64% of their scoring and 63% of their rebounding. Much of that is to the credit of one player: Elsa Daulerio. She is one of the nation’s top post players, a stellar 6’4 center who has been around the NESCAC for much of her life (her mother, Adrienne Shibles, led Bowdoin’s program for 13 seasons as head coach). And Daulerio excelled last season, averaging 13.6 PPG and 7.8 RPG in addition to her 64 blocks. She is an early NESCAC Player of the Year candidate in the minds of many and leads a team that went all the way to the Sweet 16 this past spring after finishing tied for second in the NESCAC, at 8-2.
How about Middlebury? When it comes to high scorers, you’ll find one of the NESCAC’s best in guard Alexa Mustafaj. On a team that led the league in scoring defense, she lights up the scoreboard offensively, having put up a NESCAC-best 23.6 PPG last season. And on the rebounding front? Augusta Dixon was the conference’s best in that category, the only NESCAC player to average double figures on the boards (11.6 RPG) in 2023-24. When it comes to defense, the Panthers have Callie Messina, who contributed significantly to Middlebury’s NESCAC-leading 9.23 steals/game.
Is Williams in this conversation? Absolutely, even after going just 2-8 in the league last season. Arianna Gerig is back and plays at such a high level on both ends of the floor, with the league’s highest steals/game average (2.5) and the second-highest scoring average (21.2 PPG) a year ago. Williams came up short by only a small margin so many times last season it started to become a trend, going all the way back to a 66-65 loss at fifth-ranked Rhode Island College in mid-November. Half of their conference losses came by single digits, and two of those four came by a mere three points. With all six players who started at least 10 games returning, Williams has a good chance to flip some of those close losses into wins, and end up in the title race.
Where does Amherst fit in? I’m really not sure. The Mammoths were expected to be at a higher level last season with entire roster back, but never really seemed to find a consistent rhythm, going 6-4 in conference play, but a good ways outside of the NESCAC title conversation. This year, the whole team is back again, and in terms of returning production, Amherst seems to be in position to compete at the top of the league once again, just as they did for so many years over the last two decades.
As for Trinity (CT)? The Bantams have a new face on the bench with Maria Williamson as head coach, hired to replace Emily Garner who is now at the helm of Cornell’s program. Williamson proved herself as a winner at UChicago, competing year after year in the UAA. On the surface, this could be a rebuilding year for Trinity, who ended up finishing tied for second behind Bowdoin with an 8-2 record last season. After all, three starters—Reilly Campbell, Emma Wax, and Bria Fuller—who were critical to the Bantams’ success over the last two years, graduated. But Hannah Marzo and Indi DelRocco return as seniors, along with junior guard Theresa Twardosky. That trio will need to step up majorly if Trinity is to compete for the NESCAC crown, but that’s not out of the question with the talent in that program. Melissa Whitmore, who transferred in from Stonehill College last season as a 6’1 forward, could also see more minutes and contribute well in the post.
Don’t overlook Hamilton, either. With three starters expected to be back (Hamilton’s roster isn’t published yet), the Continentals certainly have a chance. Taylor Lambo and Kendall Harris each averaged over 14.0 PPG last season, and Hamilton was one of the NESCAC’s better rebounding teams for much of the year, averaging 40.6 rebounds/game in league play along with a 4.6 rebounding margin. They were also fourth in offensive boards per game during the 10-game conference schedule.
Pick to Win: Bowdoin
In the end, I really think it’ll be either Bowdoin, Middlebury, or Bates winning the league this year. Bowdoin stands out because of the presence of Jones, and the overall group that comes back from a team that was not only successful in the NESCAC last year, but a team that won big in the postseason. The Polar Bears are proven, and while I had them a little lower than No. 5 in my preseason ballot (at No. 11), there’s no question that Bowdoin has the capability to make an impact on a national scale again this season. Winning the NESCAC won’t be easy. It rarely is. But Bowdoin seems to have the depth and talent to win back-to-back championships. I know I’m picking regular season champs here, but when it comes to the league tournament history, the NESCAC hasn’t had a back-to-back tournament winner since Amherst’s three-peat from 2016-2018.
Preseason Offensive Player of the Year: Alexa Mustafaj, Middlebury
Preseason Defensive Player of the Year: Arianna Gerig, Williams
Picks so far → AMCC: PSU Behrend, A-R-C: Wartburg, ASC: ETBU, AEC: Marymount, Centennial: Johns Hopkins, CUNYAC: Baruch, C2C: Christopher Newport, CCIW: Illinois Wesleyan, CCS: LaGrange, CNE: Western New England, MACC: Messiah, E8: Nazareth, MACF: Stevens, GNAC: Albertus Magnus, HCAC: Berea, Landmark: Catholic, Liberty: Vassar, LEC: UMass Dartmouth, MASCAC: Bridgewater State, MIAA: Trine, MWC: Ripon, MIAC: Gustavus Adolphus, NEWMAC: Springfield, NESCAC: Bowdoin
Up Next: NJAC