Conference Predictions: The Liberty League
After taking a look at the Landmark Conference yesterday, we’re on the East Coast again with the Liberty League today. We’re getting towards the point when some of these conference predictions will be a bit shorter to allow for two conferences to be combined in a single post, as the season keeps getting closer, and there are still quite a few conferences to go through. I also want to let you know that my breakdown of my Preseason Top 25 ballot for D3hoops.com will come out on Thursday, so be looking for that! I’m excited and honored to be one of the 25 voters for the national D3hoops.com WBB poll again this season and look forward to providing my ballot breakdowns throughout the season.
Now for my Liberty League pick…
Pick to Win: Vassar
Meredith Mesaris had one of the best debuts of any head coach at a new program in Division III last season, leading Vassar to a seven-win jump, a 25-3 record, and setting a new program record for wins in a season in the process. The year ultimately concluded with a Liberty League championship trophy and a tough first round loss to a Washington & Lee team that went all the way to the Elite Eight.
What makes that even more impressive is that Vassar returns 88.45% of last year’s roster in 2024-25, including four starters, making the Brewers not only my pick to win the league again, but in my opinion, a Top 15 team nationally.
Tova Gelb headlines the returning core for Vassar, as she enters her senior year after averaging 32.6 minutes/game, 14.3 PPG, and 9.3 RPG. Her 65 assists and 55 steals were also both team-highs, and she added 28 blocks for good measure, as the 5-8 guard displayed her versatile skill set on both ends of the floor. She was an All-Region honoree last year, and is one of the Liberty League’s best all-around players, without question. Gelb isn’t the only double-digit scorer back for Vassar, though. Sierra McDermed, who led Vassar in minutes/game last season (33.2) comes back after putting up 14.6 PPG, and McDermed was the Brewers’ most reliable 3-point shooter, going 39.5% (49-of-124) from beyond the arc. Senior guard Julia Harvey, who averaged 13.6 PPG is the third double-digit scorer coming back for Vassar, and like Gelb, she started all 28 games in 2023-24.
Like Gelb and Harvey, Bella Tawney started every game Vassar played last season, and did so as a sophomore. Tawney, a 6-3 center, really progressed as the season went on, leading up to a 13-point, 32-minute performance against top LL contender Skidmore in early December. She reached double figures again in February, putting up 11 points as Vassar edged Ithaca, 66-59. Tawney’s 4.3 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.1 blocks/game look especially good when you realize she averaged just 18.1 minutes/game.
As for the bench, Vassar looks fairly good there too. The Brewers seemed to keep a smaller rotation for much of last season—four players averaged 27+ min/game, eight total players saw more than 10 min/game—but having a couple reliable contributors off the bench is key for a team looking to compete with the best. Vassar has that in 5-8 guard Maddie Ahearn and 5-11 forward Caroline Siekman, both juniors, who each averaged right around 17 min/game last season. I expect one of those two will step into the vacant starting role, with Naiya Kurnik not on the roster this season after starting all 28 games as a sophomore. But with that, guard Tash Thompson, who averaged 10.4 min/game but played 19 minutes against SUNY New Paltz and 21 minutes against William Smith, may see an expanded role off the bench as well.
Overall, this is a very talented, highly-experienced Vassar team. The Liberty League tends to be lower-scoring, with slower-paced offenses and high-quality defenses. After all, six LL teams allowed fewer than 60 PPG last season. But Vassar has the potential to exceed its 66.5 PPG average from last season with the offensive contributors coming back.
Along with that, we’ll get to see Vassar in NCAA Tournament-caliber contests early on, with a Nov. 12 home game in Poughkeepsie against New Paltz and back-to-back duels with two likely Top 25 teams in Florida, Johns Hopkins and Catholic, on Dec. 29 and Dec. 30. Those will be significant tests, and I like Vassar’s chances to compete and even win those games. Last year’s Vassar team may have been the best in program history, but I think this year’s group has a chance to go beyond that, especially when it comes to the NCAA Tournament.
Don’t forget about Skidmore or Ithaca, either. Both will also be vying for that league title. Ithaca has nearly 70% of its production back, along with RIT transfer guard Emma Waite, who averaged 12.4 PPG and a league-high 4.3 APG in 31.8 min/game last season. Skidmore, who had a head coaching change this offseason and hired David Bostick from MCLA, is projected to have 67.6% of its production returning. That said, Skidmore lost a huge talent in Julia Blanck, who averaged a double-double with 13.2 PPG and 10.3 RPG, and transferred to D1 Vermont for her 5th year. Filling that void won’t be easy.
Preseason Offensive Player of the Year: Tova Gelb, Vassar: Gelb was third in the league in scoring, shooting 45.9% from the field in the process. Her FG% ranked second in the LL, as did her offensive rebound total of 90. And she dished out a team-best 2.3 assists/game. Her ability to score, rebound, and pass the ball at that kind of a consistent level is pretty impressive.
Preseason Defensive Player of the Year: Siena Smith, RPI: Smith should be back for her senior year, and the 5-9 guard/forward was key for an RPI defense that gave up just 56.7 PPG in 2023-24. She ranked third in blocks/game (1.5) and seventh in steals/game (1.6), making her one of just two players—Blanck being the other—to average both 1.5 blocks and steals per game.
Picks so far → AMCC: PSU Behrend, A-R-C: Wartburg, ASC: ETBU, AEC: Marymount, Centennial: Johns Hopkins, CUNYAC: Baruch, C2C: Christopher Newport, CCIW: Illinois Wesleyan, CCS: LaGrange, CNE: Western New England, MACC: Messiah, E8: Nazareth, MACF: Stevens, GNAC: Albertus Magnus, HCAC: Berea, Landmark: Catholic, Liberty: Vassar
Up Next: Little East Conference