Conference Predictions: The LEC
I feel like I’ve been saying this more and more in these conference prediction write-ups, but the Little East Conference is going to be a very tight league at the top this season. The headliners are Rhode Island College, a 29-1 team in 2023-24, and UMass Dartmouth, who won 24 games for the first time since 2017-18. Both programs won at least one game in the NCAA Tournament last season, and there are multiple All-Region type players on both rosters.
We saw them battle three times over the course of last season—RIC won all three—and it seems like we’re heading down a similar path again this year. Then you have some outside contenders, like Keene State, led by sophomore guard Brynn Rautiola (19.6 PPG as a freshman) and Eastern Connecticut State, who has senior forward Taylor Salato (18.4 PPG). We’ll definitely see some good competition within this conference in the season ahead.
As a reminder, my Preseason Top 25 ballot breakdown will be out tomorrow morning and I’ll have picks for the MASCAC, MIAA, and MWC out on Friday. So be looking for those upcoming posts!
Pick to Win: UMass Dartmouth
Making this pick wasn’t easy. I’ll touch on RIC more in a second, but even though the Anchorwomen lost over half of their production from last season, Madison Medbury and Angelina Nardolillo both return and are amongst the best in the LEC. That said, UMass Dartmouth also has some serious talent coming back, and good quantity of it, particularly when it comes to 5th-year seniors/graduate students.
Carly Whiteside (15.9 PPG, 8.0 RPG), Teja Andrews (12.9 PPG, 79 steals), Kaylin Zalewski (10.1 PPG), Jemima Joseph (3.3 PPG, 4.1 RPG), and Jaelyn Lavinge (29 starts, 51 assists) all return as graduate students or 5th-year seniors. That is addition to grad student Jane McCauley, a guard who averaged 11.4 min/game and 3.4 PPG during her two years at D1 Canisius.
That six-player core is going to be very difficult to stop, considering the combined experience they have, not only individually, but as a collective group. With the exception of McCauley, these are players who have been competing alongside each other for several seasons now. That chemistry is invaluable, as it isn’t something that can be formed overnight. Whiteside and Andrews both ranked in the Top 10 in the LEC in scoring last season, and Whiteside was fourth in rebounds. Defensively, Andrews ranked fourth in assists and Zalewski was ninth, while Whiteside’s 29 blocks were sixth in the league. And as a team, the Corsairs led the LEC in scoring average at 72.7 PPG.
Remember, UMass Dartmouth had a very good year in 2023-24, and while RIC’s perfect regular season record and high national ranking overshadowed some of that from a national perspective, the Corsairs notably came away with wins over Smith, Roger Williams, and NJCU. While the 69-31 loss to RIC in early January dropped Dartmouth on my list of “rankable teams” last year, they looked much improved the second time around against RIC and weren’t far off in the LEC Championship, aside from a poor third quarter. It’s difficult to weigh this situation, because RIC was certainly the better team in the league last year, but the level of experience RIC had in its favor a season ago seems to now be present on Dartmouth’s roster.
I won’t be surprised if these two teams split their regular season series and we end up with a tie atop the league standings at the end of it. Of all leagues, this seems the most likely to end up in that scenario, considering the rest of the LEC appears to be a step below these two. That’s not to say that Eastern Connecticut State (83% of its production returns) or Keene State (92% of its production returns) won’t challenge either over the course of the season. As I’ve already said, those two could be under-the-radar programs to watch out for with the amount of returners on the rosters. But at this point, RIC and UMass Dartmouth are the clear frontrunners.
As for RIC, I do think there has to be some understanding of what Jenna Cosgrove’s program has done as of late. The Anchorwomen have been very consistent and were amongst the Top 5 nationally in scoring defense last season. Medbury and Nardolillo are tough to stop offensively and that won’t change, even with the amount of key production that was lost due to graduation. But there are some question marks in terms of how they replace those critical losses, and I say that speaking as someone who obviously hasn’t been at practice or seen the way the rotation is shaping up. It’s possible RIC has everything in order and will come out strong again. Only time will tell. We’ll get to see them play Western New England (2024 NCAA Tournament team), Springfield (2024 NCAA Tournament team), and MIT (likely No. 2 in the NEWMAC) right off the bat, so that should be a good indication of where RIC is at.
Preseason Offensive Player of the Year: Carly Whiteside, UMass Dartmouth: Whiteside’s 15.9 PPG went along with a league-best 55.3% shooting percentage last season. And she did it playing for the LEC’s top-scoring offense. Entering this season, her offensive role will be key in the Corsairs’ quest for a league title and I expect she’ll be amongst the Top 5 scorers in the LEC again.
Preseason Defensive Player of the Year: Madison Medbury, Rhode Island College: One of just two returners from the 2024 All-LEC Defensive Team, Medbury contributed well to an RIC defense that allowed just 45.2 PPG. Individually, she ranked sixth in the conference in steals/game (2.2) and added seven blocks. With the emphasis RIC places on defense, Medbury should be a focal point of the Anchorwomen’s defensive efforts in 2024-25.
Picks so far → AMCC: PSU Behrend, A-R-C: Wartburg, ASC: ETBU, AEC: Marymount, Centennial: Johns Hopkins, CUNYAC: Baruch, C2C: Christopher Newport, CCIW: Illinois Wesleyan, CCS: LaGrange, CNE: Western New England, MACC: Messiah, E8: Nazareth, MACF: Stevens, GNAC: Albertus Magnus, HCAC: Berea, Landmark: Catholic, Liberty: Vassar, LEC: UMass Dartmouth
Up Next: MASCAC