Conference Predictions: The HCAC
The HCAC got better this offseason with a notable addition to the conference. Berea’s move from the CCS to the HCAC is highly-impactful from a women’s basketball perspective. Transylvania has led the league for quite some time now, but after the Pioneers, there hasn’t always been a ton of depth within the league. But that should change with Berea now stepping into the conference, a program that went 24-4 last year and 26-3 the year prior. It’s a program that has made the NCAA Tournament three times in the last four years and has virtually its entire roster returning in 2024-25.
There’s a very good chance that this situation makes the HCAC a consistent two-bid league moving forwards. Transy isn’t going anywhere, and neither is Berea. In fact, even with Transy’s low returning production (I’ll get to that in a minute), I think the HCAC has a decent probability to get both teams into the tournament this season. But who is my pick to win the league? Glad you asked…
Pick to Win: Berea
This is hard. Transy went to the Final Four last year. And won it all in Dallas the year before. There is no denying that the Pioneers have been one of the best programs in Division III over the last three years, and I have full confidence that Hannah Varel will do a fantastic job as head coach, having replaced Juli Fulks, who took the head coaching position at D1 Marshall. But Berea is more proven in terms of the players they will have on the floor this season. When a 24-4 NCAA Tournament team returns its entire starting five, I’m going to have a hard time picking against them, even if they did play a weaker schedule last season.
As I’ve noted before, there is a consistency and chemistry that comes with that level of returning production, and it’s very difficult to manufacture that. It’s something that happens organically and process that really can’t rushed. Because of that, Berea has the advantage right now.
The five returning starters are talented, led by 6-2 junior forward LynKaylah James, who averaged 15.5 PPG and 11.0 RPG last season. Then there’s senior guard Drea Satori, whose 4.46 assists/game ranked No. 30 in the nation last season, along with her 11.1 PPG. She also played the most minutes of any Berea player (32.2) and started every game for the Mountaineers for the second straight season, meaning the Louisville native enters this season having made 57 consecutive starts. The double-digit scorers continue with Jayden Merriweather (10.5 PPG last season), who also led the Collegiate Conference of the South in steals (77). Atyia Moss and Dailyn Spalding are also back, both of whom averaged at least 24 minutes/game and started all 28 games. At Berea’s talent goes beyond its starting five. 6-1 forward Madison Howell, who tallied 14.6 minutes/game as a sophomore, blocked 14 shots last season and put up 4.0 PPG and 3.3 RPG. Guard Kayla McClendon should also contribute well off the bench, after putting up 5.4 PPG and shooting 37.8% from 3-point range in 13.1 minutes/game.
As for Transylvania…the Pioneers will have a different look this season than in past years. You can’t replace Dasia Thornton, a First-Team All-American and arguably one of the most dynamic post players we’ve seen in Division III in quite some time. You can’t replace Kennedi Stacy, whose aggressive defensive style led one of the nation’s top defenses. Sydney Wright and Laken Ball both graduated after starting 30+ games as well. That’s a ton of talent to lose. Point guard Sadie Wurth is the lone returning starter, and overall, Transy returns just 37.19% of last year’s production. But with that being said, there’s still quite a bit of talent in that program. It’s just less experienced talent than what Berea has. The addition of Centre transfer Makya Grinter is big for the backcourt, as she started 28 games and averaged 11.1 PPG in 2023-24. And expect 6-1 forward Emilie Teall to step up in a big way as well with the departures of Thornton and Ball. Once the Pioneers have time to form chemistry and find their identity with the players in new roles, Transy will be tough to beat. The question is how quickly that process can happen, especially with a tough non-conference schedule that includes Redlands, DePauw, and Wisconsin Lutheran.
But those aren’t the only two contenders. Don’t forget about Hanover and Mount St. Joseph. Hanover brings back 85.7% of last year’s production, headlined by senior forward Grace Bezold. Bezold put up an HCAC-best 19.9 PPG as a junior, over 4.0 PPG more than Thornton, the conference’s No. 2 scorer (15.2 PPG). Now, Hanover lost starting forward Kylah Lawson, who transferred to UIndy, and that’s a significant loss, so Bezold may need to take on even more of a scoring role. As for MSJ, the Lions took a big step forward defensively last year and also return their top three scorers, including guard Karlee Mills (13.1 PPG). That could be a favorable combination for MSJ, who comes off a 22-6 season.
Preseason Offensive Player of the Year: Drea Satori, Berea: Between Satori’s 11.1 PPG and 125 total assists last season, she was a crucial part of the Mountaineers’ offensive efficiency. And that should be the case again. To have a guard who can score at the level Satori does, while also distributing the ball and reading the opposing defense in the way she does is huge, and will be important as Berea navigates its first year in the HCAC.
Preseason Defensive Player of the Year: Hailey Guingrich, Mount St. Joseph: As a first-year player last season, Guingrich tied for the league high in blocks/game with 1.5. She was a big part of MSJ’s defense, one of only two HCAC programs (Transy being the other) to have allowed fewer than 60 PPG last season, and will be important to the Lions again this season.
Picks so far → AMCC: PSU Behrend, A-R-C: Wartburg, ASC: ETBU, AEC: Marymount, Centennial: Johns Hopkins, CUNYAC: Baruch, C2C: Christopher Newport, CCIW: Illinois Wesleyan, CCS: LaGrange, CNE: Western New England, MACC: Messiah, E8: Nazareth, MACF: Stevens, GNAC: Albertus Magnus, HCAC: Berea
Up Next: Landmark Conference