Conference Predictions: SAA, SCAC, SCIAC
We continue on in the “Conference Predictions” series with three more picks on this Tuesday morning. Hope you enjoyed the first day of the Division I college hoops schedule! I want to give a shout-out to Emily Garner and Juli Fulks, both of whom made their debuts as D-I head coaches last night after great success in #d3hoops. Garner led Cornell to a win over Army, 60-54, which marked the Big Red’s first win at West Point since 1995-96. She enters this season after taking Trinity (CT) to consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances. Fulks’ team at Marshall battled Toledo down to the wire in the Sun Belt-MAC Challenge, falling narrowly, 71-68, in a solid effort on the road. Madison Kellione, the 2023 Elite 90 winner and an All-American at Transylvania, started at point guard for Marshall, playing 32 minutes.
This is such a great time of the year, finally having college basketball back on a daily basis, and I look forward to the official tip-off of the Division III season in just a few days.
I also wanted to give props to Illinois Wesleyan for taking D1 Eastern Illinois to the brink last night in a hard-fought matchup that saw EIU escape with a 70-67 win at home. This is an EIU team that returned multiple starters and was picked third in the Ohio Valley Conference preseason poll. The Titans led by as many 14 points in the first half, and while EIU took the lead in a 29-point third quarter, IWU stayed in it and battled back. That wasn’t easy to do, considering they shot just 5-of-20 from 3 and gave up 15 offensive boards (which led to 16 second-chance points), but they really battled through all of that, with 21 points off turnovers and a 22-of-29 mark at the free throw line. Overall, I was really impressed. I get it, these are still exhibitions. But IWU certainly seems to be backing up that #10 preseason ranking.
Now for some predictions…
SAA
Millsaps
Rhodes returns Taylor Dupree, the 2023 SAA Defensive Player of the Year who missed the entirety of last season, Centre has Bailey Rucker back, and Berry has its top three scorers from last season the roster. But Millsaps stands out, even in what should be a competitive title race in this Region 6 conference. The Majors put together their best season in program history in 2023-24, setting a new record for wins in a season (24). On top of that, Millsaps reached the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1996, and as the reigning SAA champs, it seems the Majors will be in a position to build on last year’s success.
Haley Franklin returns after being named SAA Player of the Year, Elyse Warren and Garin Freeman, who each averaged 10+ PPG are back, and overall, Millsaps has four starters returning. The only big loss between last year and this year is 6’2 forward Helena Roe, who graduated after averaging 23.6 min/game. With their up-tempo, unique style, the Majors proved to be a difficult test for just about everyone they faced, both within and outside of the SAA. They notably beat Williams on a neutral court in NYC and fought well against Mary Hardin-Baylor in a 68-65 loss. Millsaps’ pace of play, particularly in transition, makes them a difficult matchup for a lot of teams, and the high number of 3-point shots they take is another unique aspect of their style. Those are two of the characteristics that seemed to set Millsaps apart through last year, and while there are multiple teams capable of winning the league title, the Majors have the inside track at this point.
SCAC
Trinity (TX)
The SCAC will be an interesting league this year with the additions of Concordia, Ozarks, and notably, McMurry. McMurry comes in as an intriguing newcomer, one that returns leading scorers Emily Holland and Kylie Flippin from a team that went 16-10 and 10-6 in the American Southwest Conference. When you consider that McMurry was 3-20 in 2021-22, it truly has been one of the quickest turnarounds we’ve seen in D3 women’s basketball in recent years. The additions of three transfers, including Jordan Bravo who averaged 12.0 PPG at Concordia (TX) only strengthens McMurry’s presence in the Warhawks inaugural SCAC campaign.
Colorado College also figures to be firmly in the mix, with Preseason All-American Zoe Tomlinson back for her senior year. The Tigers went 20-8 last year and played NYU, Whitman, and Tufts in non-conference, yet went 0-3 in those games and still missed the NCAA Tournament. They return just under 70% of last year’s production and will be factor in this title race. Texas Lutheran is another team to watch, one that has been on the rise over the last couple of seasons.
But in the end, I’m leaning towards Trinity. If I had to rank my Top 4 in the SCAC, it’d go: Trinity, McMurry, Colorado College, TLU, though not much separates those four. The thing with Trinity is consistency. Yes, they return less than McMurry, which could be a factor. But I also think the Trinity team we saw for much of last year was only scratching the surface in a lot of ways from what they could have been. And they still went 23-6, making a second round NCAA Tournament appearance.
Natalie Anderson suffered an injury in mid-December that kept her out for the rest of the season, and she is the biggest name returning to the roster. A 6'0 junior forward, Anderson was averaging 18.8 PPG and 9.6 RPG when she got hurt, and she has the talent to put Trinity into the Top 25 conversation. The backcourt loses Jamie Ruede, who really stepped up as the season went on, but brings back Josie Napoli (32.1 MPG, 15.5 PPG) and Kylie Minter (23.4 MPG, 10.9 PPG). That trio really headlines Trinity’s returning group, and I do think with a full preseason in the program as opposed to transferring in mid-year, 6’2 forward Natalie Greenwood could really emerge into a more consistent contributor for the Tigers. Cameron Hill always puts a competitive team on the floor, and while last year had some challenges, it really seemed like the Tigers over the course of that. I feel most confident with Trinity from where things stand right now, but again, this conference race seems wide-open.
SCIAC
Cal Lutheran
We stay in Region 10 and head further west to the sunny West Coast. Cal Lutheran makes a lot of sense here. The Regals went 19-7 overall last season and were in the title race for the entire year, finishing tied atop the standings with La Verne at 13-3. Occidental ended up surprising a lot of people by winning the SCIAC Tournament in what was really a testament to the depth of the league.
This season, Cal Lu really seems to be in a favorable spot, bringing back 89.41% of its production. That includes sophomore forward Alline Ballard, who put together an incredible freshman year, averaging a double-double (13.8 PPG, 11.5 RPG). She is going to be the focal point of Cal Lu’s attack from the looks of it, but the Regals are in a great position because of who else returns alongside Ballard. Sara Mills and Janna Holley are two of the SCIAC’s best returning guards, as both contribute well offensively, with Holley even leading the SCIAC in assists last year at 5.3/game. That was 1.4 more assists per game than anyone else in the league, and returning a point guard of Holley’s caliber will be huge to Cal Lu’s success this season.
In total, all five starters return from last year’s 19-win team, including fifth-year senior center Aliya DiMuro. I’m going to have a hard time thinking anyone is in a better position than Cal Lu to win the SCIAC, as the Regals look to finish a second-straight season with at least a share of the league’s regular season championship. If they manage to do so, it’d be the first time since 2006 that Cal Lu has accomplished that feat.
Picks so far → AMCC: PSU Behrend, A-R-C: Wartburg, ASC: ETBU, AEC: Marymount, Centennial: Johns Hopkins, CUNYAC: Baruch, C2C: Christopher Newport, CCIW: Illinois Wesleyan, CCS: LaGrange, CNE: Western New England, MACC: Messiah, E8: Nazareth, MACF: Stevens, GNAC: Albertus Magnus, HCAC: Berea, Landmark: Catholic, Liberty: Vassar, LEC: UMass Dartmouth, MASCAC: Bridgewater State, MIAA: Trine, MWC: Ripon, MIAC: Gustavus Adolphus, NEWMAC: Springfield, NESCAC: Bowdoin, NJAC: Kean, NAC: Maine Maritime, NCAC: DePauw, NACC: Edgewood, NWC: Whitman, OAC: Baldwin Wallace, ODAC: Washington and Lee, PAC: Chatham, Skyline: Mount St. Mary, SAA: Millsaps, SCAC: Trinity, SCIAC: Cal Lutheran
Up Next: SUNYAC, UEC, UAA