Conference Predictions: OAC, ODAC, PAC, Skyline
Another edition of conference predictions to end the weekend! We’re getting pretty close to the end of this “Conference Predictions” series as we’re now down to just nine leagues left to pick. The 2024-25 Division III season officially tips off in just five days!
OAC
Baldwin Wallace
The Yellow Jackets really controlled the OAC last season, putting up a 16-2 record in conference play and making a run to the second weekend of the national tournament, beating Trinity (CT) and SUNY New Paltz along the way. This is a team that has its go-to players back, a group that includes forward Bella Valliant and guard/forward Caely Ressler. Valliant is arguably one of the best returning forwards in Region 7, coming off a season in which she averaged 10.0 PPG and 7.9 RPG. Ressler is versatile, the team’s leader in minutes last season (24.9/game). Her 9.3 PPG ranked second on the team (15.1 points per 40 min) and she is likely BW’s top 3-point shooting threat this season as well. I also appreciate teams that have consistency in the backcourt, and Emily Irwin provides that for the Yellow Jackets, coming off a season in which she averaged 16.4 points and 4.0 assists per 40 min. As a senior and one of four players who started all 29 games last season, Irwin provides a spark within BW’s offense. Bringing back that trio of Irwin, Ressler, and Valliant is huge, and with such a deep bench, I expect BW will play a somewhat large rotation again this season (9 players averaged at least 13 MPG in 2023-24). With the returning production and what I saw from BW over the course of last season, I don’t see any other pick in the OAC that makes more sense. It’ll be a tough league again, no doubt, but at this point it feels like there’s a bit of gap between BW and the rest of the OAC.
ODAC
Washington & Lee
W&L took a tremendous step forward last season. The Elite Eight run was huge, and so were the new program records set for wins in a season (29), winning percentage (.906). The Generals won their second consecutive ODAC title, going 17-1 in the league, and even with a coaching change and the departure of Hanna Malik, W&L is going to have a good shot at the three-peat. Brittney Kemp takes over as head coach after a solid run at St. Mary’s (MD), Quinn McGuinness still gives W&L an experienced presence in the backcourt, and notably, First Team Preseason All-American Mary Schleusner enters her junior year. Schleusner put up unbelievable numbers last season, averaging 17.2 PPG and 23.9 RPG as a sophomore. That included her headline-grabbing performances in the NCAA Tournament, such as the 45-point, 29-rebound double-double against Vassar in the second round that made just about everyone do a double-take when they saw the box score. Games certainly aren’t won by one player, but it’s hard to think of W&L being stopped with Schleusner on the floor. She is on the short list of National Player of the Year candidates at this point. And as if I needed one more reason to feel confident in my pick of W&L to win the ODAC, the Generals return four starters and just about 80% of their production from last season. The other big contender in the ODAC is Randolph-Macon, who has just about everyone back, and could make the ODAC a two-bid league if everything comes together. RMC went 17-9 last year, and a 20-win season, especially with Catherine Kagey on the floor, seems like a likely possibility.
PAC
Chatham
I’ve written plenty about Chatham over the course of this offseason, so I won’t draw this out too much. The major storyline going into this season surrounds the program’s high number of incoming transfers, many of whom were multi-year starters at Division III programs across the country. Combined with the returning group, Chatham an immense amount of quality depth, at least on paper. Very few programs in the country will have as much experience on their rosters as David Saur’s squad does, and that has the potential to serve Chatham really well. Because this isn’t a mid-tier team that brought in a bunch of transfers. This is a team coming off a 24-4 season, a PAC Tournament title, and an NCAA Tournament appearance. They were already going to be in this PAC title conversation after what we saw last year. Now, with the number of newcomers who already have lots of collegiate experience, their preseason outlook just seems to be elevated that much more. The duo of Ashlie Louden and Alyssa Laukus highlights the returners, as both averaged in double figures in scoring last season while Louden tallied 64 steals and Laukus recorded 43 blocks. Amongst the newcomers are Leah Harkenrider, who averaged 31.9 MPG and 12.3 PPG at Alfred, and Maria Barela, who started at guard on a Maine Maritime team that won the NAC and reached the NCAA Tournament. Washington & Jefferson is certainly in the mix as well, returning its top four scorers from a team that went 19-1 in the PAC last season. Despite putting together back-to-back 20-win seasons with 19-1 records in conference play, W&J hasn’t reached in the NCAA Tournament since 2021-22. So the Presidents are coming into this year with just as much motivation, which should make for an interesting PAC title race, considering this will almost certainly be a one-bid league.
Skyline
Mount Saint Mary
The Skyline was a fairly competitive league at the top last season, with five teams posting conference winning percentages above .700, though Manhattanville won the regular season title with a near-perfect 19-1 record. However, I think it’s likely we see a different team finish atop the standings in this coming season, which would keep with the recent trend, considering a different program has won each of the last three regular season titles in the Skyline. Manhattanville brings back just 42% of its production from last year, and while the Valiants brought in a solid transfer in Clark’s Kumi Tamura, I think Mount Saint Mary has the edge coming off last year’s second place finish. The Knights’ top three players in min/game—Casey Love, Lauren Petrie, and Brianna Guglielmo—are back, and that’s in addition to grad student Kate Hughes, a starting guard/forward who missed all but two games of last season due to injury. Hughes put up 22 points against Hartwick in the only complete game she played last season, and should be a solid offensive contributor for a team that averaged 66.5 PPG. Love returns as MSMC’s top rebounder, Petrie led the team in assists, and overall, they may not have a ton of depth, but the Knights are experienced enough to win this league. They have a solid starting five and I think it’s possible we see a player like 5’11 forward Sara Cashin take on a bigger role after putting up a pair of 17-point performances in Skyline play as a freshman last season.
Picks so far → AMCC: PSU Behrend, A-R-C: Wartburg, ASC: ETBU, AEC: Marymount, Centennial: Johns Hopkins, CUNYAC: Baruch, C2C: Christopher Newport, CCIW: Illinois Wesleyan, CCS: LaGrange, CNE: Western New England, MACC: Messiah, E8: Nazareth, MACF: Stevens, GNAC: Albertus Magnus, HCAC: Berea, Landmark: Catholic, Liberty: Vassar, LEC: UMass Dartmouth, MASCAC: Bridgewater State, MIAA: Trine, MWC: Ripon, MIAC: Gustavus Adolphus, NEWMAC: Springfield, NESCAC: Bowdoin, NJAC: Kean, NAC: Maine Maritime, NCAC: DePauw, NACC: Edgewood, NWC: Whitman, OAC: Baldwin Wallace, ODAC: Washington and Lee, PAC: Chatham, Skyline: Mount St. Mary
Up Next: SAA, SCIAC, SCAC, SUNYAC