Conference Predictions Day 5: The Centennial Conference
A high-profile league with two legitimate Final Four contenders
Saying you’re going to make a prediction for every conference champ is fun until you find yourself in a situation like the Centennial Conference (just kidding!). There might not be a tougher league to pick this season than the Centennial, and yes, I’m fully aware of the way the WIAC is shaping up. I’m not sure we’ll two more talented, evenly-matched, experienced teams in the same conference 2024-25 than Johns Hopkins and Gettysburg. I won’t be surprised if I look up at some point this season and find JHU and Gettysburg both in the Top 5.
Last season saw JHU win its first meeting against Gettysburg on Nov. 21 at home, 66-63. But on Jan. 31, when the Blue Jays made the trip to Gettysburg, the Bullets came away with a 78-67 victory, and followed that up by winning on JHU’s home court, 64-55, in the Centennial Tournament final. All three games were closely-contested and all-out battles down the stretch. Not only was it great basketball, but knowing both teams would be bringing back their entire starting lineups for this season made me starting thinking ahead to the future. Considering how young both rosters were last season, I think it’s fair to say that the experience of the 2023-24 campaign likely improved both JHU and Gettysburg’s depth and overall confidence heading into this season.
JHU and Gettysburg finished tied in the league standings at 19-1, the only conference loss on either team’s record being attributed to the other. JHU went all the way to the Sweet 16 before losing to Scranton while Gettysburg fell victim to a first round defeat against a competitive St. John Fisher squad.
You also can’t forget about Dickinson, who finished third in the Centennial and went 19-8 overall last season. The Red Devils are expected to bring back 84% of last year’s team, including versatile guard/forward Clair Marion, who averaged 17.5 PPG as a junior. Even though I expect JHU and Gettysburg to be the Centennial’s top two teams, don’t rule out the possibility of the Centennial putting three teams in the national tournament. Dickinson struggled much more with Gettysburg last season than Johns Hopkins, and was marked by somewhat inconsistent play for much of the season. In a late December stretch, they lost to Mass-Dartmouth by 7 one afternoon, but turned around and took down then-No. 9 Smith by 3 the following day. And after competing well in a loss to JHU in early February (the 67-49 score was a wider margin than the actual level of play that evening), Dickinson fell victim to an upset against Washington College in OT two days later; the same Washington College team the Red Devils beat 55-38 earlier in the season.
So I think we end up with Gettysburg, JHU, and Dickinson in the Centennial’s top three. But in what order? I don’t know. Who knows? We could see a three-way tie for first place when it’s all said and done!
Preseason Offensive Player of the Year: Macie Feldman, Johns Hopkins: As I already wrote, Feldman is prolific on the offensive end for JHU. The guard enters her junior after averaging 27.7 minutes/game, 10.3 PPG, 3.4 assists/game in 2023-24. Her ability to run the offense and score at a consistent rate are impressive attributes that will serve the Blue Jays well in the season ahead.
Preseason Defensive Player of the Year: Clair Marion, Dickinson: For as talented as Marion is on the offensive end, she is stellar as a defensive player as well. A key contributor to a defense that allowed just 50.1 PPG last season, she led the Centennial in steals, with 82, averaging 3.2 steals/game.
Pick to Win: Johns Hopkins
This is tough. Gettysburg won the season series with JHU last season. JHU went further in the NCAA Tournament. Both return equal amounts of returning depth and talent. But I’ve got to pick one. And that’s Johns Hopkins. At least for now. Who knows what happens when we get into the season and I have to start making this decision each week with my Top 25 ballot? At least then we’ll have see both teams play and have a way of evaluating their performance on the court.
But as for Johns Hopkins. I see a team that is balanced offensively, with a backcourt than complements its frontcourt. The guard play is fantastic, and Michaela O’Neil and Greta Miller form one of the best forward duos in the country. O’Neil averaged 12.0 PPG and Miller tallied 10.2 PPG last season as the both enter their senior seasons in 2024-25. Head coach Rodney Rogan, in his first season at the helm of the program last year, did an excellent job of utilizing each of their skill sets. It created a one-two punch offensively that was tough to defend, as O’Neil and Miller, both of whom are taller than 5’10, can score from virtually anywhere on the floor, including beyond the 3-point arc. In JHU’s key second round tournament win over Christopher Newport, O’Neil had 18 points and Miller tallied 13, with each shooting exactly 50% from the field.
And to my point about the offensive balance, that game is a great example. The 77-75 win over a tough, hard-nosed CNU defense told me a lot about JHU’s offensive strength, which we didn’t necessarily see against Gettysburg (a testament to Gettysburg’s stellar defense and JHU’s offensive improvement, in my opinion). The Blue Jays had four double-digit scorers on that particular day, and those four—O’Neil, Miller, Macie Feldman, and Elisabeth Peebles—averaged more than 10.0 PPG for the entire season as well. Three more players on JHU’s roster—Jadyn Murray, Kendall Dunham, and Layla Henderson—averaged about 5.0 PPG last season, and only one of those three was playing more than 20 minutes/game.
For as much as I talked about the forwards, the guard play should be exceptional once again. Macie Feldman played a full 40 minutes against CNU’s pressure defense, scoring 17 points, grabbing nine rebounds, and dishing out 5 assists. When it comes to the best guards in Division III, it’s a long list, but Feldman certainly deserves to be near the top of it. She was JHU’s third-leading scorer at 10.3 PPG, the team’s leading rebounder at 8.1 RPG, and the only player in the Centennial with more than 100 assists (she finished the season with 101). Not to mention, she also led the Centennial in assist-to-turnover ratio at 1.9. And Feldman did all of that as a sophomore!
One more note about the offensive balance: when you have a forward that is second in the league in assist-to-turnover ratio and dishes out 99 assists, it’s a real testament to your team’s offensive flow and versatility. Miller sees the floor very well, as evidenced by her assist numbers last season, and that creates a tough challenge for opposing defenses.
So that’s my rundown on JHU. Of the nine players who averaged 12.0 minutes/game or more last season, eight will be back, with the only departure being grad student Kara Milliken (30 GP, 15.1 minutes/game).
As for Gettysburg, I think the Bullets have a defense that will challenge just about everyone on their schedule to a significant degree. I don’t expect to see them tested all that much in non-conference play, outside of two matchups against Randolph-Macon and Williams, but we’re not analyzing scheduling here. Gettysburg won the Centennial Tournament title last season and has plenty of firepower back on its roster as well.
Standout guard Alayna Arnolie averaged 14.8 PPG as a sophomore, shooting 37.9% from 3-point range, and tallied 46 steals on the defensive end. Mackenzie Szlosek added to that backcourt with 13.3 PPG last year, and AB Holsinger completed a dynamic backcourt trio as Gettysburg’s assist leader, with 85. Holsinger’s assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.5 was tied for second in the Centennial. Shinya Lee gives Gettysburg a consistent post presence, as the Rochester native tallied 8.1 boards/game and made 22 starts.
Then you look at the overall team stats and Gettysburg’s keys to victory. The Bullets allowed just 48.5 PPG last season, the eighth-best mark in all of Division III. They shot the ball a lot from behind the arc (518 attempts), but recorded the highest 3-point shooting percentage of the league’s 11 teams at 37.1%. Gettysburg was also the only Centennial team to shoot for over 40% from the field, at 41.4%. Of course, all of that is based on last season, but I think we can expect a lot of similarities in the season ahead.
That wraps up this edition of the newsletter! Picks so far: AMCC: PSU Behrend, A-R-C: Wartburg, ASC: ETBU, AEC: Marymount, Centennial: Johns Hopkins
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Riley, interesting pick.. I do think Rogan has done a great job with Hopkins, I see them in the final four… who is next?