Conference Predictions Day 4: The AEC
A look at three teams to watch in the Atlantic East Conference and my pick to win in the 2024-25 season
The Atlantic East Conference. That’s the league I’ll be taking a look at today as we roll along with our Conference Predictions series leading up to the 2024-25 Division III women’s basketball season. We started out with the AMCC, then headed to the Midwest with a look at the A-R-C, and yesterday highlighted the ASC, the only conference in D-III made up entirely of Texas institutions. Today we’re back in the East, with our first Region 5 conference.
Before I go any further, I want to make sure to note that I’m picking the winners of each conference’s regular season title. Conference tournaments tend to be a little more difficult to predict anyways, and considering they are based on a team’s performance over the course of a few days or a week in late February, rather than the entire body of work throughout the conference schedule.
But getting back to the AEC. This was an interesting league last season, starting with the conference losing one of its WBB programs not very long before the season tipped off. Cabrini, in its final year of existence, was unable to field a WBB team due to low roster numbers, dropping the AEC down to six WBB programs. Marymount continued its run of dominance, winning its fourth league title in the last five seasons, including the Saints’ first undefeated season in league play as part of the AEC. The 10-0 record vs conference opponents featured an average scoring margin of 23.6 points per game as Marymount led the league in both points scored and fewest points allowed. In fact, the Saints led the AEC quite a few statistical categories, going 22-6 overall and reaching the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year. Behind Marymount, Immaculata was the AEC’s only other team above .500 in league play, going 7-3 with seven conference victories for the second straight year.
Then in late July, we received word that Marymount head coach Margaret White, who had led the program for the last three seasons, would be stepping down to take a position as the Potomac Region Director of Special Olympics. Claire Mattox, a Division I assistant at nearby American University, was hired on Sept. 20 to lead the program into the 2024-25 season. It will be Mattox’s first head coaching opportunity, but not her first stop a Division III school as she spent three seasons on staff at Vassar before moving up to D-I.
The AEC also added Pratt for the coming season, expanding the league back to seven teams. It shouldn’t be much of a factor in women’s basketball specifically (Pratt went 0-18 last season), but for the AEC’s long-term sustainability, it’s good to see them add another institution.
But now for the actual prediction and look ahead to 2024-25….
AEC Preseason Offensive Player of the Year: Lauren Klieber, Neumann: A stellar scorer, the senior forward is sixth in program history in career 3-pointers made (162), and converted on 56 attempts from beyond the arc last season, the second-most in the AEC. She averaged 18.9 PPG, surpassing the career 1,000 point mark in early December, and finished with the sixth-most points in a single-season in Neumann history (529). Expect another big year from Klieber in 2024-25.
AEC Preseason Defensive Player of the Year: Vatijah Davis, Centenary (NJ): Davis had a stellar freshman season last winter, starting 24 games and averaging a double-double, with 18.2 PPG and 11.2 RPG. Defensively, she was fourth in the AEC in steals (1.8/game) and sixth in blocks (24 total, 0.9/game). Davis is one of just two returning players in the AEC this season—Klieber being the other—to rank in the league’s top 10 in both steals and blocks in 2023-24.
Pick to win: Marymount
I can’t go against the Saints, not with the level of success they’ve had year after year. Marymount has never lost more than one league game in any season since joining the AEC in 2018-19.
But this will be a new-look Marymount team as compared to last year’s squad. The coaching change is just one piece of it. All five players who averaged 19.0 minutes/game or more on the 2023-24 team were seniors, including two who were fifth-year seniors. One of those two, guard Symantha Shackelford, led the Saints in scoring (15.0 PPG), 3-point shooting (62-of-173), free throw shooting (84.5% on 103 FTs) and assists (3.1/game). Losing her will be tough regardless, but there’s a chance that Marymount essentially has an entirely new starting five if the three fourth-year seniors from 2023-24 do not return either. Those three have an extra year of eligibility remaining, but without a published roster from Marymount, we have no way of knowing if they will in fact use that additional eligibility.
Even if Marymount has an entirely new starting five, I’m sticking with my pick. But it could be a very interesting year for the Saints if that ends up being the case. The way it looks right now, if no seniors return, Marymount will have just two returners who averaged more than 10 minutes/game in 2023-24. 5’11 guard Ella Morrison would be Marymount’s top returner in that case, a junior who started eight games and appeared in all 28 last season. Forward Ava Achtyl also should return after making nine starts as a junior, which gives Marymount a necessary post presence.
Beyond that, it’s really up in the air. Because of when Mattox was hired, she wasn’t able to recruit the transfer portal and reload the roster that way, so having quality depth may be an issue, at least early on. It will be especially important for Marymount’s defense to be in top form, considering consistent scoring is likely to be a challenge for the Saints.
With that being said, keep an eye on Immaculata. Marymount is still my pick to win—even with a smaller rotation, I think they’ll navigate through AEC play okay—but Immaculata returns three starters, all of whom will be seniors. Abigail Lentowski comes back after playing 30.2 minutes/game and leading the team in both scoring (15.0 PPG) and rebounding (7.9 RPG). Abigail Boyer, a solid 3-point shooter, should also return and strengthen Immaculata’s backcourt. The gap between Marymount and Immaculata may be smaller this season, and we could see some great matchups between those two throughout the final two months of the regular season.
Neumann is my third team to watch. Klieber leads a squad that went 18-10 last year, 5-5 in the AEC, and will have three returning starters in the season ahead. All three—Klieber, Emily DuPont, and Aubrie Breisblatt—started at least 24 games, and Klieber and DuPont were Neumann’s top two scorers. In terms of returning production, I like where Neumann stands and this feels like the season for the Knights to take a serious step forward.
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Picks so far → AMCC: PSU Behrend, A-R-C: Wartburg, ASC: ETBU, AEC: Marymount. Tomorrow’s pick: the Centennial Conference (CC).