Conference Predictions Day 3: The ASC
Alright, it’s Day 3 of my conference predictions series as we head into the 2024-25 season. Today brings us to the only Division III conference composed of entirely Texas institutions: the American Southwest Conference.
I honestly don’t know what to do with the ASC. This is a complete toss-up. And what’s ironic is that it might be the conference I cover the closest through my roles with TrueToTheCru.com and The D3 Texas Newsletter. But the ASC is set to have one of the lowest conference-wide percentages of returning production (basically, the average percentage of players returning from the 2023-24 season on every roster within the conference….Thank you to Scott Peterson for the great D3 WBB analytics work he does year-round!).
The rosters for every team in the league will look somewhat new. Hardin-Simmons, the reigning champ, lost its entire starting backcourt in Parris Parmer, Paris Kiser, Samantha Tatum, and Anna Fanelli. UMHB lost leading scorer Arieona Rosborough (transfer to Tarleton State), and Ashley Faux, Alexis Carmosino, and Lauren Baker (graduation). ETBU also lost a handful of talented contributors, notably Michaela James (graduation) who was third on the team in minutes/game and third in points per game. Howard Payne and LeTourneau are not out of the mix either, but both also lost a fair amount of depth. As I’ve said before, returning production is a good indicator of where a team could be, especially early on, but it’s not full-proof. With the transfer portal, you never know if one of these teams might completely reload with a handful of transfers and make a deep NCAA Tournament run. You just don’t know. And it’s too early to know much on that front, as that is something that is revealed once the year gets going. No amount of analytics or statistics can tell you how a few impactful transfers may change the entire outlook of a team’s season. This feels like a year in which that may happen in the ASC.
Additionally, as you probably know by now, the ASC is on life support. The league is down to just five teams that are eligible for the league standings in basketball (UT Dallas is technically part of the conference and will play all ASC opponents, but the Comets will not be part of the league standings as they transition to Division II). It’s even worse in football, with just four football-playing institutions, and it’s looking like basketball will be there next year as well, with LeTourneau leaving for the SCAC. Next year will also be the last year in which the ASC has an automatic bid to the NCAA postseason in every sport, and the conversation surrounding that situation has only gotten more serious. The hope is that all four remaining ASC programs next season remain in Division III beyond that point, but that prospect is looking less likely as the weeks and months pass with no announcement on the ASC’s sustainability beyond 2025-26.
How and why does this matter as I make my pick? For one, having fewer teams means that there is less room for error within the conference schedule. Playing only 10 ASC games means a bad weekend on the road that ends up with two losses could easily sink a team’s chances at the regular season title. It also leaves me with a smaller group of teams to pick from, especially when there are at least three main contenders, all of whom have some question marks when it comes to player personnel and overall depth. And of course there’s the fact of the ASC not playing any league games prior to mid-January, so every team will have likely sorted out the kinks and established some level of chemistry by the point that games really start to matter. It’s a different dynamic in the ASC this year than the majority of conferences I’ll be looking at.
I’ve spent three paragraphs talking about the ASC without actually giving a pick. But I promise, this isn’t me making excuses! I do expect it to be a very interesting conference race, and won’t be surprised if there’s a tie at the top of the standings by the season’s end. There’s a lot of variables at play with all of these teams, so I’m just going to take my best-informed guess.
Pick to Win: ETBU
Yes, I’m taking ETBU to win the league title just one year after going 14-13 overall. Thing is, we saw a very different ETBU squad late in the year than we did as they struggled through seven straight losses in non-conference play. Blake Arbogast got his team playing together when it really started to count, and that is promising, especially with ETBU returning such a solid group, including three fifth-year seniors. While the Tigers definitely battled through inconsistencies, we saw what they could be in the upset over No. 14 UMHB by a dominant 79-47 final score. They were one of the league’s best rebounding teams last year, and also ranked No. 2 in scoring defense along with leading the ASC in opponent field goal percentage.
The pieces are there for a big year, especially with the news that ETBU has guard Payton Hicks and centers Hannah Matthews and Jayla Hall returning. That trio of fifth-year seniors will be key, especially as Hall and Matthews should again keep ETBU at the top of the league when it comes to rebounding on both ends of the floor. Hicks is a solid floor general who averaged 13.7 PPG and 2.9 assists/game in her first year with the program last season, and we all know how important the point guard position is to a team’s chemistry and offensive flow.
Bringing back a guard like sophomore Kadia Ward is great as well, as Ward saw plenty of action as a freshman and adjusted to the speed of the college game. By mid-season, she was putting up double-digit scoring performances, including a 21-point effort against UT Dallas. Tristan Smith, who made 27 starts as a freshman and averaged 5.2 boards per game, is also returning.
I have no doubt UMHB and Hardin-Simmons will each put great products on the floor. And I wouldn’t be surprised if either of those two ends up winning the league championship. They’ll have to talent to do so. But ETBU, at present, has an edge. Returning several key contributors from last season aids in the development of the team’s cohesiveness, and that’s something that takes time. It can’t be rushed, which is why it’s so valuable when a program can bring back multiple starters and experienced players. If the Tigers can continue playing quality defense, attacking the boards, and find better offensive consistency in the year ahead, ETBU is a good pick to win its first ASC title since 2018.
ASC Preseason Offensive Player of the Year: Haylee Jordan, LeTourneau: Jordan was the focal point of LETU’s offense last season, and I’m sure she’ll have a similar role again, after averaging 13.4 PPG and 11.5 RPG last season. A talented post player, her 80 offensive rebounds led the league in 2023-24, and Jordan also recorded eight games of 10+ points over the course of conference play.
ASC Preseason Defensive Player of the Year: Jaycie Brisco, UMHB: Brisco plays with the kind of fire that produces big plays on the defensive end. They won’t always end up in the box score, but they are game-changing plays nonetheless. A quick, smart guard, Brisco should be at the center of The Cru’s defense after tallying the fourth-most steals in the ASC last season (2.1/game) in addition to recording 19 blocked shots.
That wraps up today’s conference predictions write-up! Picks so far → AMCC: PSU Behrend, A-R-C: Wartburg, ASC: ETBU. Tomorrow’s pick: the Atlantic East Conference (AEC).
The day is not done, and this won’t be the only newsletter write-up you receive from me today. Because the NCAA is set to announce its 2027 and 2028 championship sites any minute now, which of course includes the sites of the 2027 and 2028 Division III WBB Final Fours (though remember that the 2028 national title game will be held in Indianapolis, combined with the D-I Final Four and D-II title game). So stay tuned!
Enjoying this, as it is giving exposure to what is going on across the country. Keepum coming