Conference Predictions Day 2: A look at the A-R-C
I make my preseason pick for the winner of the American Rivers Conference along with my Preseason Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year
Welcome back! Another day, another conference. And I’m ready to make my pick for the American Rivers Conference champion. One of Region 9’s top leagues, it always seems like the A-R-C has a national contender. In fact, we’ve gone seven years now in which at least one A-R-C program is ranked in the Top 15 of the final D3hoops.com Top 25 poll of the season. That’s impressive.
As I mentioned in yesterday’s newsletter (check that out here if you haven’t already), in the lead-up to the 2024-25 season, I thought it’d be fun to pick the winner of a different conference each day. By the time we reach the first day of the regular season, I’ll have predicted all 42 conference champions, while also highlighting my Preseason Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year (I’m well aware that there are fewer days until Nov. 8 than conferences, so a few days will feature multiple conference champion picks).
So here we go….
Day 2: The American Rivers Conference (A-R-C)
Preseason Offensive Player of the Year: Caydee Kirkham, Coe: Kirkham earns my preseason pick for Offensive POY in part due to the fact that she led the league in PPG last season (17.3 PPG), but not entirely. It’s the efficiency that is most impressive to me. In 2023-24, the junior guard was fifth in field goal percentage (50.9%) and second in 3-point percentage, shooting 30-of-69 from beyond the arc (43.5%). Oh yeah, and she tallied 4.5 assists/game…also a league-best. Kirkham’s efficient shooting is notable for a guard, especially as one who averaged 12.51 shots/game last season. And her ability to distribute the ball well, leading to that assist total, is remarkable. Expect a big season from Kirkham as Coe returns three starters and is following a 21-6 campaign last winter.
Preseason Defensive Player of the Year: Cassie Nash, Simpson: Nash will be a fifth-year senior this season, as she writes another chapter in what has been a very decorated athletic career at Simpson. As a two-sport star for both Simpson women’s soccer and women’s basketball, Nash returns as one of the A-R-C’s top defensive players. In 2023-24, she was the league’s only player to rank in the Top 3 in both blocks/game and steals/game, with the second-most blocked shots at 1.3/game and the most steals, at 3.2/game. She’s already won back-to-back Defensive POY honors from the A-R-C, and I think she accomplishes the rare three-peat when this season is said and done.
Pick to win: Wartburg
I know. This pick isn’t much of a surprise. But I’m very confident it’s the right one, even in a league that I think could be more competitive than it was last season.
Wartburg made that Final Four run after going a perfect 16-0 in conference action and within the league schedule, the Knights passed every test they were put through. Their two regular season losses were uncharacteristic lopsided defeats in non-conference play, but against conference opponents, we saw Wartburg win at Loras in late November, survive an overtime upset bid at Dubuque in early January, and then another overtime thriller against Loras at the end of that month. I think people, myself included, have overlooked the A-R-C in the past. But the truth is that Wartburg faced a number of quality tests through its conference schedule last season, and that 16-0 record is worth a lot. This season should be similar in nature in terms of quality competition, and because of that, I don’t expect Wartburg to dominate through the entirety of conference play. But another undefeated record in the A-R-C seems plausible, especially as the Knights return everyone from last year’s main rotation, with the exception of Macy Harris, who graduated.
That means Wartburg has four starters back from a Final Four team, five fifth-year seniors, and nine seniors in total! Needless to say, that’s extremely rare. It’s very possible no other team in the country has the combination of experience and depth that Wartburg has, and that will be an advantage for the Knights both in conference play and outside of it. You’ve got Jaedon Murphy (14.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG), Sara Faber (11.9 PPG, 1.7 steals/game), Britney Young (team-high 66 3-pointers made last season), Lauren Woeste (63.8% FG% last season), and Maggie Wilkins, who averaged 21.8 minutes/game in 2022-23 but suffered a season-ending injury two games into last season.
Replacing Macy Harris will be tough, but I expect that Wartburg has the capability to account for that, with a talented backcourt and several guards that could step up at point guard. Young, who was second on the team in assists, seems like a candidate to take over the PG duties, though we’ll just have to see how Coach Amsberry structures his lineup. We won’t probably won’t see Wartburg seriously challenged in non-conference play until mid-December, when the Knights travel down to Texas and face Mary Hardin-Baylor and ETBU, and I’m looking forward to being in Belton for those matchups. But you never know with the way non-conference games go. Edgewood, under the direction of new head coach Kole Vivian, might be one of the dark horses in Region 8. And Bethany Lutheran gave Wartburg a challenge in last year’s meeting.
To wrap this up, I just don’t see anyone stopping the Knights this season. Not with the amount of experience they have on the roster. This is a team that has exceptional chemistry and cohesion and plays as one unit, something that takes months and even years to develop to its fullest extent. I have a feeling we’ll see that with Wartburg yet again this coming season, as the Knights seek their third-straight A-R-C crown.
A look at Coe and Loras…the Kohawks and Duhawks appear, at least at this point, to be the A-R-C’s top two contenders behind Wartburg. Both have their strengths and flaws. Loras is set to return just 48% of last year’s roster, and while they should have a solid backcourt and starting five, a lack of depth on the bench is going to be a serious challenge. Coe, led by Kirkham, will struggle with finding a post presence, forcing reliance on its guard play. But the Kohawks have a strong group of guards who can run the floor and push the pace, and that should help Coe in its push for a second-straight 20-win season. I don’t think the margin will be wide between Loras and Coe, but the A-R-C isn’t necessarily going to be a three-team race (though I do think Loras and Coe have the best chance to contend with Wartburg). Simpson is in position for a good year, Central is ready to take a step forward, and Dubuque is right there with them. Behind Wartburg, there is no clear No. 2 in the A-R-C right now.
Thanks for reading! Come back tomorrow as I make my pick for the ASC champ!
Picks so far: AMCC: PSU Behrend, A-R-C: Wartburg
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