Brooklyn punches ticket + Who's in, Who's out, Who's on the bubble?
Deep dive at the current at-large bid picture as we enter a huge slate of games this afternoon and evening
We’re now three full days away from every conference tournament in the country being wrapped up and knowing the 64 teams whose seasons will be extended by at least one more week. But between here and there, a great deal of action is still waiting to unfold, from the semifinals tonight in the ASC, Centennial, HCAC, and SUNYAC, to the countless championship games set for Saturday afternoon and evening. The chaos of conference tournament week is still only in its early stages, and yet last night gave us plenty to talk about.
Amongst the main conversations at this point in the year, the biggest question being asked in the stands and locker rooms of numerous tournament hopefuls is naturally, Will we get in? That is especially when that question is being asked after a tough loss. There is always a bit of nervousness that comes when you contend for an at-large bid, as opposed to winning your league’s tournament title outright, and securing a spot in the national tournament via that path.
So with a handful of key results in the books, I thought I’d open by taking a look at where the at-large bid bubble stands, which teams now out of contention for an AQ are “locks” to get into the tournament, and which tournament hopefuls are eliminated from the quest for an at-large.
***As a reminder, Scott Peterson and I will be LIVE on YouTube tomorrow evening (link), likely starting between 7-8 p.m. CT, to give you analysis, insight, and an updated look at the NPI numbers. 37 of the 42 remaining Pool A bids will have been accounted for by the end of the day, and we should be able to give you a great look at where you team stands, both from an at-large and a seeding conversation. Feel free to reach out with any questions you have, whether through the YouTube live chat, X/Twitter (You can DM us (@ZayasRiley) and (@scott_peterson4), or through email (rileyzayas@gmail.com).
The Locks
We’ll start in the Midwest with UW-Stout, who fell at home to UW-Whitewater, 69-63, in a WIAC semifinal last night. The Blue Devils came into the contest ranked three spots higher than the Warhawks in the D3hoops.com Top 25 poll and were #19 in NPI, but struggled to find the same hot shooting that they did in the last meeting between the two in Menomonie, where they won convincingly, 87-60. Instead, UWW eliminated them from having a chance to defend their 2024 WIAC Tournament title. But Stout has zero reason to worry. In fact, they may benefit from some added rest prior to next week’s NCAA Tournament. Stout would be the 7th at-large team selected if the season ended today, and remains with a 100% chance of securing an at-large per Scott Peterson’s “Season Simulations” model. The Blue Devils are without a doubt going dancing.
Elizabethtown is in the same spot, having fallen at home in their Landmark Conference semifinal to a strong Catholic team, 79-67. The Blue Jays climbed back into it after falling behind by 12 with less than five to play, but couldn’t quite close the gap down the stretch. ETown’s tournament odds were secure coming into the day, and that didn’t change with the loss. The Blue Jays are most certainly into the tournament with an at-large bid and would be the sixth team off the board if the season ended now. Matt Snyder’s updated bracketology currently has ETown in the Catholic pod for the first weekend of the NCAAs, facing Washington & Jefferson in the opening round.
In the NESCAC, Tufts and Bates both remain as locks, each holding a 99.9% chance or better to secure an at-large after they each were eliminated from the NESCAC Tournament in last Saturday’s quarterfinal round. Both played very difficult non-conference schedules, which helped overcome lower winning percentages (Tufts - 15-10, Bates - 16-8) and playing a single round robin schedule has factored as well.
Who’s Out?
We saw a couple Pool C hopefuls drop must-win games last night, erasing just about any chance of an at-large. Those two being Capital and Rhode Island College. Capital’s At-Large When You Need It (ALWYNI) chances coming into the Comets’ semifinal at Baldwin Wallace sat at 15.8%, and with the 80-72 loss, those chances took a dive, as expected, falling to 0.5%. Rhode Island College fell victim of an upset, losing to Southern Maine, who has been on a tear as of late in the Little East Conference. Southern Maine’s 71-57 win took RIC from 15.4% odds to just 1.7%.
Who’s sitting on the bubble?
At this point, it’s a clear group of about six teams sitting on the bubble, with a couple more on the outside looking in. The bubble teams to watch heading into today are Texas Lutheran, Hope, UW-Stevens Point, UW-La Crosse, Mary Hardin-Baylor, and WashU. Also look for Ohio Northern and Emory to be in the hunt, with much lower current chances of an at-large, but still holding onto a little bit of hope. Four of those teams are still playing, with three in action in their conference tournaments today.
A few teams in this group have seen their chances of an at-large go from below 25% to above 40% in the span of just a few days as more potential at-large candidates, like Capital and Rhode Island College, have taken losses. The bubble got smaller yesterday, and it is likely to be this group contending for the final 3-4 spots, depending on how many bid thieves we get (which I’ll touch on in a second).
For a team like Mary Hardin-Baylor, beating Hardin-Simmons in their ASC semifinal today would raise The Cru’s chances from 41.6% currently to 88.4%, most likely putting them into the tournament field. Texas Lutheran is similar, reaching “lock” status with wins in their quarterfinal against Ozarks today and semifinal against Colorado College tomorrow. With a win today and a loss in the semifinal, those chances drop to 54.8%, putting TLU in a tight spot on the bubble. Hope is in a tough spot as well entering its semifinal against Calvin tonight. The Flying Dutch need a win tonight—that goes without saying—but would still have an at-large bid chance of 70.8% with an appearance in the MIAA Tournament final. So reaching the conference tournament title doesn’t necessarily make Hope’s path to an at-large a sure thing. But remember, there’s several other results that could contribute to a rise for a team like, Hope, UMHB, or TLU; notably a semifinal loss by a fellow bubble team.
UW-Stevens Point and UW-La Crosse are the two examples of teams with at-large chances about 50%, but whose conference tournament runs are over. UWSP, despite losing to UWL in the WIAC quarterfinal round, is in a better spot than UWL at this point, sitting with a 77.6% chance to get in. The Pointers are a “bubble-in” team at this point, while UWL will end up sweating it out a bit more, currently at 50.9%.
WashU needs a win over Chicago tomorrow to really secure its spot in the field. A loss would likely push the Bears outside of the Pool C picture.
Who should bubble teams be rooting for?
If you’re a bubble team (and I recognize this is a small group), you’re rooting interests are pretty clearly defined. You want all other bubble teams to lose as soon as possible (whether that be in a quarterfinal or semifinal at this point), and you want every conference favorite in a league that has no other at-large bid candidates to win. When the opposite of that second part happens, and a team projected to win its league tournament ends up needing an at-large, that team will take an at-large bid. And considering that at-large bid was not previously allocated to them in the majority of simulations, they “steal” a bid, pushing a bubble team to the outside.
So what are those potential bid stealers? Scott Peterson put up a great graphic that looks at this just a few hours ago, which you can see below. (Link to his post here)
What do we take from this? Our biggest chances of bid thieves are likely to come in the MIAA, ODAC, NCAC, SCAC, and SUNYAC. The MIAA is one of note, because again, while Hope will have a decent shot at a Pool C by reaching the title game, the numbers are currently telling us it won’t be a sure thing. As a result, there’s a world where the MIAA only gets two teams in by Hope winning the tournament, giving Trine an at-large bid, and taking a bid that would not have been needed had Trine won the AQ.
The NCAC is a good example of a true Pool A or bust situation for the top bid thief, DePauw, who has a 0.0% chance at an at-large. If the Tigers were to get past Ohio Wesleyan for the first time this season, it’d mean OWU takes an at-large bid they weren’t projected to need, again putting increased pressure on the bubble.
It’s important to note that cases like the WIAC, MIAC, or Landmark title games will not involve any chance of a bid thief, as both teams playing are locks to get in, and it’s already anticipated that one of the two will get an at-large with the other earning the conference’s automatic bid. The only time when we find a bid thief situation is when a league champion ends up being a team that would most likely not have earned an at-large bid, or had a smaller chance (usually less than 52%) at one AND the projected conference champ still earns an at-large as a result. There’s a lot of situations where top-seeded teams, like Westminster (MO) last night, lose in their conference tournament and have no chance at an at-large, and in these cases, no bid thief is present, even if it’s an upset. Because again, no at-large bids are being taken in the process. It just goes down as a conference tournament upset in a one-bid league.
AQ Watch: Brooklyn claims CUNYAC AQ
I’d be remiss if I closed this newsletter before acknowledging that our first conference tournament automatic qualifier was awarded last night in New York City, as third-seeded Brooklyn took down Hunter, 59-54. The Bulldogs beat the CUNYAC’s top two seeds, Baruch and Hunter, in the span of 48 hours, winning their fifth consecutive league tournament title.
“I'm so proud of the way we played tonight," Brooklyn head coach Megan Campbell said postgame in a recap from Brooklyn College Athletics. "We had a lot of ups and downs this season including a number of injuries, but the team showed a lot of mental toughness to get to this point."
Brooklyn closed the regular season by winning five of its last six, setting up yet another CUNYAC Tournament run. Dior Dorsey, who had a pair of late scores to extend Brooklyn’s lead with less than 4:20 left, finished as the tournament MVP with 15 points and 8 rebounds. Brooklyn joins NYU as the two teams who have officially punched their tickets to the NCAA Tournament.
Today’s Games to Watch
Texas Lutheran vs Ozarks | SCAC Quarterfinal | 1 p.m. ET
Shenandoah vs Randolph-Macon | ODAC Semifinal | 5 p.m. ET
Oglethorpe at Millsaps | SAA Semifinal | 5 p.m. ET
SUNY Canton at Cortland | SUNYAC Semifinal | 5:30 p.m. ET
Calvin vs Hope | MIAA Semifinal | 5:30 p.m. ET
Hardin-Simmons vs Mary Hardin-Baylor | ASC Semifinal | 6:00 p.m. ET
Dickinson at Johns Hopkins | Centennial Semifinal | 6:00 p.m. ET
Hanover at Mount St. Joseph | HCAC Semifinal | 7:00 p.m. ET
Ferrum vs Washington & Lee | ODAC Semifinal | 7:30 p.m. ET
Puget Sound vs George Fox | NWC Semifinal | 9:00 p.m. ET
Linfield at Whitman | NWC Semifinal | 11:00 p.m. ET