At-Large Outlook: Today's three biggest high-leverage games
Plus, a look at some notes on Friday night's action across the country
Welcome back to another edition of The Scoop on D3 Women’s Hoops! We’ve got a full slate of Saturday games staring us down, with anticipated WIAC battles, the UAA openers, the continuation of the NESCAC’s opening weekend, and more.
I should note that my post on the top-performing freshmen players will indeed be released soon, but split into two posts; one will focus on forwards/centers and the other on guards. Expect the first edition (forwards/centers) on Monday morning followed by the second edition (guards) on Friday.
As for today’s coverage, on a full slate of Saturday and Sunday games, it’s important to recognize which matchups hold the greatest importance for a team’s hopes and dreams of earning a bid to the national tournament.
And it’s not just important for those teams directly. It’s important for all the other teams in their conference, as well as every other team that may need an at-large bid when this is all said and done. Most often, these won’t be the games you find at the top of the D3hoops scoreboard involving ranked opponents and high-tier programs. But their importance, in some ways, supersedes that of a ranked vs ranked matchup, considering that for at least one of the two, it’s often a must-win type situation. Yes, even in January.
So here’s a look at three games today with the greatest at-large importance. I plan to make this a recurring Saturday morning post, so stay tuned for more of these.
I have to give a shout-out to Scott Peterson for the incredibly-helpful data here, including all percentages that I reference. As a quick refresher, “at-large bid %” is the percentage of simulations where a team gets an at-large bid. But even more importantly is the ALWYNI % — “At-large when you need it”. This measures the percentage of simulations where a team fails to get the automatic bid, but still picks up an at-large bid. I will reference this more frequently, as it is a more complete stat as opposed to the straight-up at-large bid %. You can find Scott’s D3 WBB data on D3data.weebly.com. Thank you as well to the D3 Datacast, who posts daily projections of each of the day’s games on d3datacast.com, some of which are referenced in today’s post.
Western New England at Endicott | 1 p.m. | WNE bounced back from last Saturday’s upset loss at the hands of the University of New England quite well, beating a solid Roger Williams team, 76-63, on Tuesday. The Golden Bears, at 11-1, now get another road test in CNE play, battling a much-improved Endicott team that is a perfect 5-0 in league play. The Gulls are 9-3 overall, and for Endicott, this game is especially important. Currently, they sit with a 4% chance at getting an at-large bid when it’s needed, a slim probability that would only decrease with a loss to WNE. For the Golden Bears, there’s still a lot on the line. The AQ is by no means a guarantee, and WNE’s chance of earning an at-large bid when needed sit at 59% entering today. A win over Endicott would ensure at least a small increase in that percentage. D3 Datacast prediction: Endicott, 60, WNE, 59
John Carroll at Capital | 1 p.m. | Welcome to the OAC. It’s going to be a multi-team race for this league title, and JCU and Capital both find themselves in that mix in early January. But Capital let a halftime lead slip away against Baldwin Wallace a week ago, and despite the Comets’ 10-2 record, their current chances of getting an at-large bid when needed sit at just 9%. In a league where the AQ will be very much up for grabs in the conference tournament, being in a favorable position for an at-large bid is a priority. This is a chance for Capital to get closer to that, hosting a JCU team on the rise, and one that also carries a 10-2 record into this meeting. Currently, they’d only get an at-large bid 40% of the time when needed, so things aren’t very concrete for the Blue Streaks either. The winner of this matchup will move into sole position of second place behind Baldwin Wallace in the OAC standings. D3 Datacast prediction: JCU, 64, Capital, 61.
Ohio Northern at Marietta | 1 p.m. | So let’s continue that conversation about the OAC. Because we’ve got another leverage game in the league two hours to the southeast. Marietta hosts ONU in a matchup of teams with narrow chances of getting in the tournament, but who have each won back-to-back contests. To give you an idea of just “narrow” the tournament probability is, Marietta is getting into the tournament just 3% of the time with an at-large, while ONU is even lower, at 2%. In other words, this is a must-win for both teams to even keep any hope of building a viable at-large resume alive. It’s worth noting that Marietta has historically defended its home court especially well against the Polar Bears; Marietta has won four of the last five meetings with ONU inside Ban Johnson Arena. D3 Datacast prediction: Marietta, 59, Ohio Northern, 59 (no, that’s not a typo! This is a TRUE 50/50 game!).
Around the Nation
All three ranked teams in action on Friday night came away with double-digit victories. No. 5 Bowdoin overcame a slow start to pull away from Tufts, 62-47, No. 8 Whitman kept rolling against Lewis & Clark, 72-33, and No. 25 Colorado College bested Southwestern on the road, 58-45.
In the Liberty League, Union is now 4-1, having beaten Ithaca for the first time on Friday night. Union emerged with a narrow 66-62 win, as Ithaca gave the Garnet Chargers a run in the second half after Union led 36-18 at the half. Kate Peek, who previously spent time at Fairfield and NYU, had 16 points and shot 4-of-7 from 3 in her second game in a Union uniform.
The opening night of NESCAC play didn’t disappoint, with a number of competitive battles, including Amherst’s 71-60 win over Bates. The Mammoths opened the game on a 29-14 run that set the tone, and largely won the game at the free throw line, going 25-of-36 from charity stripe. Amherst is now 10-2 overall.
Middlebury also picked up a key win in its NESCAC opener, defeating a quality Trinity (CT) squad, 65-52. Alexa Mustafaj had 31 of Middlebury’s points, and as a team, the Panthers shot 48% from the field.
In the tightest NESCAC game of the evening, Wesleyan and Williams were forced into OT, knotted at 59 apiece, after Felicia Fongemie’s layup with 4 seconds left in regulation. Micah Walton had eight of Williams’ 10 points in OT, as the Ephs overpowered Wesleyan in that five-minute stretch, winning 69-64. Walton, a first-year from Austin, Texas, was terrific all night, with 31 points on an 11-of-21 shooting performance.
Keep an eye on McMurry in the SCAC title race. The Warhawks went to Trinity (TX) and found a way to beat the defending SCAC champs last night, winning 65-57, in their inaugural game in the league. A 15-7 third quarter and 23 points from Emily Holland (including 5-of-8 from 3) were key in McMurry’s success.
Merchant Marine avoided a near-upset against Mount St. Mary in Skyline Conference action, edging the Saints, 68-65, in OT. For 11-1 USMMA, things got dicey in the fourth quarter, when MSMC put together an 18-9 run and forced the game into OT on a game-tying layup at the buzzer. Luckily for the Mariners, they regained their footing in OT, extending the lead back to as many six and preserving their relatively favorable odds of winning the Skyline title.
Come back tomorrow for my “Saturday Superlatives” column, and feel free to reach out with any thoughts/feedback/questions. Have a great Saturday!