At-Large Outlook: 5 games this weekend with immense importance in the at-large bid conversation
Want to know which games hold the most weight on this weekend's D3 WBB slate? Here's a look at five that will factor into the current at-large bid conversation
We've officially passed the halfway mark of the 2024-25 season. For some, conference play tips off this weekend, and for others, it’s simply a continuation of the race for the league title. Some programs still remain in non-conference action as well. But all are pushing to make the 64-team field come March, and the at-large bid conversation is already underway. On a full slate of Saturday and Sunday games, it’s important to recognize which matchups hold the greatest importance for a team’s hopes and dreams of earning a bid to the national tournament.
And it’s not just important for those teams directly. It’s important for all the other teams in their conference, as well as every other team that may need an at-large bid when this is all said and done. Most often, these won’t be the games you find at the top of the D3hoops scoreboard involving ranked opponents and high-tier programs. But their importance, in some ways, supersedes that of a ranked vs ranked matchup, considering that for at least one of the two, it’s often a must-win type situation. Yes, even in January.
So here’s a look at five games over the next two days with the greatest at-large importance. I plan to make this a recurring Saturday morning post, so stay tuned for more of these.
I have to give a shout-out to Scott Peterson for the incredibly-helpful data here, including all percentages that I reference. As a quick refresher, “at-large bid %” is the percentage of simulations where a team gets an at-large bid. But even more importantly is the ALWYNI % — “At-large when you need it”. This measures the percentage of simulations where a team fails to get the automatic bid, but still picks up an at-large bid. I will reference this more frequently, as it is a more complete stat as opposed to the straight-up at-large bid %. You can find Scott’s D3 WBB data on D3data.weebly.com. Thank you as well to the D3 Datacast, who posts daily projections of each of the day’s games on d3datacast.com, some of which are referenced in today’s post.
Shenandoah at Guilford | 2 p.m. | We’re in the ODAC, where it seems at least four teams have a legitimate shot at making the tournament at this point. Two of those match up today in Greensboro, and both Shenandoah and Guilford need this win badly. In the Pool C conversation, neither enter today with more than a 9% chance of getting an at-large bid when needed. There’s more riding on this for Guilford, who currently sits with a 3% chance of getting an at-large (Shenandoah is at 9%), a percentage that decreased as the Quakers picked up back-to-back 2-point home losses against UW-La Crosse and Berry last week. All three losses have come by a combined seven points, but a loss is a loss in NPI, regardless of margin. At 8-3 overall and 2-1 in the ODAC, Guilford will need a big day from Zoe Bayer (16.9 PPG), looking to keep pace with a Shenandoah offense that shoots 42.5% from the field and has the nation’s ninth-leading scorer in Terese Greene (23.1 PPG). D3 Datacast projection: Shenandoah, 76, Guilford, 74.
Millsaps at East Texas Baptist | 3 p.m. | We’re still in non-conference action in Texas, and this is a big one between the projected SAA champ and a 10-3 ETBU team facing its fifth-straight Massey Top 100 opponent. Millsaps makes the trip to Marshall, Texas for this one, and while both programs are currently the favorites to win their league’s AQ (ETBU at 51%, Millsaps at 88%), the goal is still to build the best at-large resume possible. This game presents a huge opportunity to do that. For ETBU, who has a 49% chance at an at-large when needed right now, the gravity on this result for the Tigers is slightly higher than it is for Millsaps, forced by ETBU playing in a much more competitive league where the AQ is more up for grabs. In simulations, they simply need an at-large more often, so having a viable resume is that much more important. Millsaps only gets an at-large 8% of the time when needed (likely in the situation of a bid thief at the SAA Tournament), but this is still important for the Majors, who could raise that percentage significantly with a road win today. D3 Datacast has the projected line at ETBU (-9.0), with ETBU winning 69-60.
Hamline at St. Benedict | 1 p.m. | CSB puts its perfect 3-0 MIAC record on the line today against an up-and-coming Hamline squad that has won its last three. The MIAC could be interesting this year. Both CSB and Hamline, along with Bethel, have stepped up, putting at least five teams sit in that MIAC title conversation right now, led by Gustavus Adolphus of course. Gustavus is in prime position to make the tournament with its 10-0 start, but for CSB and Hamline, the road is way more narrow. Funny as it sounds, this is essentially a play-off game, both coming in with less than a 5% chance at getting an at-large when needed (CSB at 1%, Hamline at 3%). There isn’t much room for error to maintain that outside shot, with the gravity on this game at above 100% for both teams. It really could go either way, as both are strong defensive teams and similar in almost every stat category. Projected final score from D3 Datacast: CSB, 55, Hamline, 54. It’ll be a four-quarter battle in Saint Paul.
George Fox at Linfield | 9 p.m. | We head out to the West Coast on the opening weekend of NWC play for this one between 10-0 Linfield and 8-2 George Fox. The Bruins dropped their opener to Willamette last night, 66-56, but get a chance to right the ship in McMinnville this evening. Linfield is on a roll, and while they entered yesterday’s win over Pacific (their first at Pacific since 2019) with a 0% chance at an at-large, another victory today could aid in putting the Wildcats in that conversation. It won’t be easy. George Fox is similarly ranked, with a 0% chance at an at-large, but holding that standout 59-57 win over 15th-ranked Hardin-Simmons. This is the fun of conference play. Teams can surprise us and work their way into a league title or even an at-large bid, providing they string together wins and go 2-0 each week. Both of these teams, especially Linfield having gone perfect in 40% of its schedule, are candidates to do that. But winning today is an absolute must if that’s going to happen. D3 Datacast projection: Linfield, 60, George Fox, 50
Trinity (CT) at Rhode Island College | Sunday | 1 p.m. | We’re still in non-conference action here as well, but this is probably the biggest game on Sunday’s slate. Trinity (CT) is 10-2, boosted by wins over Springfield and Vassar and sitting with a 98% chance at getting an at-large when needed. They’re not the favorites in the NESCAC, but they’re up in the top three in that race. RIC needs this one a little more, and being at home may provide a slight advantage for the Anchorwomen. In a tough Little East Conference that also includes Mass-Dartmouth, an AQ is no guarantee, and in fact, RIC only gets the AQ 52% of the time in current simulations. So this places more emphasis on building a great at-large resume, which they’ve done fairly well even with a 7-4 record, notably beating Ohio Wesleyan in Puerto Rico two weeks ago. But they’ll need to do more to avoid being a “Pool A or bust” team, and there aren’t many more chances remaining to accomplish that within a weaker LEC schedule. Of all the teams mentioned so far, RIC has the most significant gravity percentage on this one game (173%). They currently get an at-large 29.2% of the time when it’s needed, but that’s far from being close to an at-large lock. Trinity’s offense (averages 79.5 PPG) against RIC’s defense (55.5 PPG allowed) will be the decisive matchup.