5 things I'm watching for in tonight's national semifinals
We have arrived. UW-Stout vs NYU. Smith vs UW-Oshkosh. Tonight in Salem, Virginia.
We’ve made it to Salem. Both figuratively, and literally. Since the preseason, we talked about “The Road to Salem” and the contenders we felt were capable of “going all the way.” Then came the regular season, expectations shifted with certain teams, and we learned a lot as February rolled around. Then came conference tournaments, March, and the bracket reveal, getting us closer to this final weekend when the 2025 national champ will be crowned. Three weeks ago, we sat on Thursday and looked at a 64-team bracket, having no idea who would come out in the end. This past Saturday was our answer, with UW-Stout, NYU, UW-Oshkosh, and Smith advancing through the sectionals and onto Salem. Now we get to see the final chapter of this season written, four teams sitting oh so close to their hopes and dreams of hoisting that trophy at center court. For each of them, 40 minutes inside the Cregger Center tonight stand between having the chance to play for that trophy on Saturday evening or heading back home. There is no bigger stage in D-III women’s basketball, and you’d be hard-pressed to find a city with more Division III history than Salem itself.
And from a more literal sense, my flight landed here late last night, as I’ll be courtside inside the Cregger Center for this weekend’s action, assisting D3hoops.com in its coverage, writing for this newsletter, and putting together a fitting conclusion to my book on two seasons inside Division III men’s and women’s basketball. I’m excited for it, and if you see me, don’t hesitate to say hi. It’s always great to connect with readers and fellow fans of D-III women’s hoops. I’m expecting some strong and vocal crowds for both of tonight’s national semifinal, even if the closest participating program is over 450 miles away!
As I thought about these matchups tonight, with UW-Stout facing NYU and Smith facing UW-Oshkosh, several storylines came to mind. I decided to put five of them down on paper for this gameday post, examining a few things that stand out, some involving all four teams, some team-centric. Hope it’s an insightful read and enjoy the day!
A contrast of paces
One of the more interesting metrics to examine is “tempo”. In other words, how fast or slow does a particular team play? This is usually very useful in determining what the pace of a game will be, especially if the opponents share similar tempos. D3Datacast.com gives us the tempo metric, defined as “the speed, in possessions per 40 minutes, at which the team in question would be expected to play against an average team.” Let’s take the first matchup of the day: UW-Stout vs NYU. NYU’s points per game average is significantly greater than Stout’s — 88.8 PPG to 72.2 PPG. That gives us a window into the adjusted tempos of both, though remember that tempo is calculated by the number of possessions a team would get against an average opponent. NYU is the fastest team in this field of four, ranked No. 72 nationally with a tempo of 76.4. Stout, at 3.2 possessions fewer (73.2), is bit further down, at No. 195. But the Blue Devils are still in the top half of all Division III programs in that category. What does this tell us? If you’re looking for a fast-paced, barnburner kind of game, you’re likely to find it in the duel between NYU and Stout.
Especially when you contrast it with the second semifinal of the night: UW-Oshkosh vs Smith. It’s fair to say that nobody will be aiming to push the pace much in that one. Starting with Smith, we find a team that is No. 252 in tempo, at 72.0. The Pioneers are as close to the division-wide average as you’ll find in this Final Four, and just 1.2 below UW-Stout, who is over 100 spots higher. There isn’t much that separates teams when you’re talking tempo beyond the Top 75 or so. That said, UW-Oshkosh is the outlier of this group, by quite a bit. There are 423 teams playing Division III women’s basketball. Oshkosh ranks No. 423 in tempo, at 64.3 possessions against an average opponent. In other words, the Titans are the slowest-paced offensive team in the country. That considered, the second semifinal will be very much about maximizing possessions in a game likely to be won in the half-court with few turnovers for either side.
Whether fast or slow, Salem is hosting four of the nation’s best offenses and some elite point guards
So we have NYU playing fairly fast. UW-Stout too. Smith is a bit more deliberate. And Oshkosh is slower than any other team in D-III. But that really tells us very little about each team’s offensive production. Having more possessions doesn’t equal more made shots. A better metric is offensive efficiency — the points (per 100 possessions) that the team would score against an average opponent. Based on that, the offenses in Salem will be incredibly high-level. NYU is, unsurprisingly, No. 1. Stout is No. 3. Oshkosh is No. 6. And Smith is No. 10. While top-tier efficiency on offense is naturally associated with the nation’s best, this year’s group takes it to another level. By comparison, just two teams in last year’s Final Four had an offensive efficiency that ranked in the nation’s Top 10. What is awesome is that you have a fast-paced team like Stout just three spots ahead of a slow-paced team like Oshkosh, giving a great piece of context into the fact that a different offensive style doesn’t equal less capability in terms of actually scoring the ball.
So expect to see complete possessions, as these teams know exactly what shots they’re looking for, and the right shots to take. Having watched all four offenses play throughout this season, there is a sense of poise found from each of these teams that allows them to avoid taking too many rushed shots. A big part of that is the point guard play. They all have experience in the backcourt. NYU has Belle Pellecchia, a senior with 113 career starts and a 2.16 assist-to-turnover ratio. Stout has Sam Schaeffer, a fifth-year senior with an even higher assist-to-turnover ratio of 2.64. Oshkosh has Kate Huml, a junior who didn’t turn the ball over in either of the Titans’ sectional round wins. And anchoring Smith’s offense is fifth-year senior Ally Landau, a Haverford transfer who has 114 assists, tied for the seventh-most in Smith history in a single season. Keep an eye on that quartet of floor generals in tonight’s games.
NYU’s neutral court streak
We’ve all become very familiar with NYU’s current overall win streak, so significant that the nation’s largest media market has given the Violets plenty of coverage over the course of this year. They head to Salem having won 60 in a row, with an unblemished 31-0 mark in last year’s national title run and a 29-0 record in the current campaign. No team has won consecutive national championships since Amherst did so in 2018, and Bowdoin was the last program to reach back-to-back title games, doing so in 2018 and 2019. There’s also a current streak of eight straight games with 70+ points, and the one of 27 in a row shooting 41% or better. But did you that the Violets haven’t lost on a neutral court in the NCAA Tournament since the 2013-14 season? Since dropping an 80-77 result to the University of New England in the first round of the 2014 tournament at Tufts, NYU has won 10 consecutive neutral court games in the tournament, the most recent coming over SUNY Geneseo in the Sweet 16 last Friday. In counting all neutral court games, not just those in the tournament, NYU’s streak sits at 13 straight, with the last loss coming in the ECAC Tournament in 2018.
Beyer off the bench
If Division III awarded a “Sixth Player of the Year” award (given to the top bench player in the country), Beyer would win it hands-down. The transfer from D-I St. Thomas (MN) has come off the bench in all 31 games for UW-Oshkosh this season, and only keeps getting better. Beyer had 18 points in the Titans’ Elite Eight win over Baldwin Wallace, including 10 in a three-minute stretch in the first quarter as part of a game-opening 17-2 run. She comes into the national semifinal averaging 10.8 points per game, and get this: Over Oshkosh’s last 18 games, Beyer has recorded 14 double-digit scoring performances. How she fares against Smith’s air-tight defense will be the question tonight, but there’s no doubt that Beyer’s ability to provide a spark of the bench has been crucial to the Titans’ offensive performance, especially through the second half of this season.
Sorensen seeking scoring record
If you watch UW-Stout, you’ll notice just how difficult of a matchup senior guard Raegan Sorensen is for her opponents. Quick and agile, she might be the best player of any at this Final Four when it comes to attacking the rim and driving the ball through the teeth of the defense. Unlike a lot of high-scoring guards, 3-pointers are a very small aspect of her production — she is just 6-of-26 beyond the arc this season — as Sorensen instead finds ways to score in the paint more often than not. She posts up on taller defenders, usually gaining an advantage once the ball is in her hands because of her height and quickness. If the defense is lazy in getting back down the floor, she’ll be aware and sprint ahead, with her teammates looking to find her on those deep passes that lead to easy, uncontested layups. And you can never completely take away her scoring opportunities off dribble penetration. It has led to four 30-point games in Stout’s last seven for Sorensen, and she is averaging 24.5 PPG in the tournament. It has all brought her within 14 points of breaking Stout’s all-time scoring record of 1,738, and 19 points from moving into fifth all-time in the WIAC record book. It goes without saying that it would be massive for Sorensen to break the program record in arguably the biggest game history, and in all honesty, if Stout is going to keep pace with the Violets, Sorensen will need to be involved. The Blue Devils are balanced and have several weapons, but Sorensen is their strongest. If she can hit her tournament average, Stout should have a shot at upsetting NYU.
The National Semifinals — What to know
UW-Stout (23-7) vs NYU (29-0) | 5:00 p.m. ET
NPI rank: NYU (#2, 1-seed), UW-Stout (#23, 6-seed)
Overall D3Datacast Efficiency rank: NYU (#1), UW-Stout (#11)
Last time they were here: NYU (2024, Won national title), UW-Stout (Never, First appearance)
Leading scorer: NYU - Natalie Bruns, 17.2 PPG, Stout - Raegan Sorensen, 17.9 PPG
Best regular season win: NYU - At Carnegie Mellon (#18 NPI), 91-62 on Jan. 24, Stout - vs UW-Oshkosh (#10 NPI), 72-63 on Feb. 22
NYU is seeking back-to-back national titles for the first time in program history
At 23-7, UW-Stout has tied its win total from 2023-24, and is one win shy of tying the program record for wins in a season, set during a 24-7 campaign in 2004-05.
Smith (30-2) vs UW-Oshkosh (27-4) | 7:30 p.m. ET
NPI rank: UW-Oshkosh (#10, 3-seed), Smith (#11, 3-seed)
Overall D3Datacast Efficiency rank: Smith (#3), Oshkosh (#5)
Last time they were here: Smith (2024, reached title game), Oshkosh (1996, Won national title)
Leading scorer: Smith - Ally Landau, 14.6 PPG, Oshkosh - Kayce Vaile, 12.1 PPG
Best regular season win: Oshkosh - At UW-Whitewater (#13 NPI), 59-52, on Jan. 15, Smith - At Trinity (CT) (#34 NPI), 74-49, on Dec. 1
Smith is in the Final Four for the third year in a row, the longest streak since Amherst’s three straight from 2016-2018. With their win over Gustavus Adolphus in the Elite Eight, the Pioneers reached 30 wins for the third consecutive season.
With a win, Oshkosh would become the first WIAC team not named UW-Whitewater to reach the national final since 2002. Aside from UWW’s appearances in 2013 and 2022, UW-Stevens Point was the last WIAC team to make it, winning it all in 2002.
Remember, both semifinals will be streamed on ESPN+, a subscription service through ESPN. You can subscribe through a package with Hulu or Disney+, or directly through ESPN, which has a monthly or yearly option. It is $11.99 per month if you don’t already have it, and while I understand all of us are used to free livestreams throughout the season, it really isn’t too steep of a price for a better overall production of such high-level games.
I’ll be posting updates from X/Twitter (@ZayasRiley) throughout today and be back tomorrow morning with a breakdown of tonight’s national semifinals. So stay tuned for that! And whether you’re in Salem or watching from somewhere else, enjoy the Final Four and what this year’s field has to offer!
Oskosh would be the first UW not named Whitewater to reach the finals unless Stout beats them to it ;-) - though arguably it's a longer putt, err, shot for the Blue Devils than the Titans. Enjoy!