5 teams with the most on the line entering today and tomorrow's games
Looking at high-leverage games from an at-large bid perspective
Each Saturday morning since January, I’ve taken a look at the highest leverage games of the weekend. Games that stand out because of their implications on one or both teams’ NCAA Tournament chances, many of which are “under-the-radar” contests that could be easily overlooked, but contribute plenty to the national picture. By this point in the year, with just two weekends left in the regular season (or just one, if you’re the NESCAC), the number of games involving two teams who each have decent, but not entirely secure, odds of getting an at-large bid, has dwindled. This weekend, only one game on the slate features two teams who each have at-large chances between 10% and 95%. There are no games with two teams in the 25% to 90% range.
So with that considered, I thought I might add a slight wrinkle this week. Instead of five games (though I’ll still talk about the games!), I thought I’d break down five teams that have the most on the line in this mid-February stretch. These are teams who get an at-large bid when needed often enough in Scott Peterson’s daily simulations to have a respectable chance, but who are certainly not locks to get in. To add to the high stakes, all five that I’m focusing on will be in matchups against teams that are almost certain to reach the national tournament here in a little over two weeks. It doesn’t get any bigger than this, and these are some of the games I’m most excited about here over the course of today and Sunday.
One quick note: the percentages I’m referencing are courtesy of Scott Peterson’s “Season Simulations” model on d3data.weebly.com. These are his ALWYNI (At-Large When You Need It) calculations, which measure a team’s chances of getting into the tournament via Pool C when they don’t win their conference tournament (for all teams except those in the UAA) and thus, need an at-large to qualify.
Capital (at John Carroll, Saturday, 1 pm ET) | 25.7% ALWYNI: Capital is clinging to slim chances after coming up short at home against Marietta on Wednesday night. And playing in the same league as Baldwin Wallace, winners of 20 straight, winning the OAC Tournament is going to more than just an uphill battle. Time is running out for the Comets to strengthen their resume by much more, especially with Otterbein (11-11) and Wilmington (6-16) closing their regular season slate after this one. It might as well be a playoff game in University Heights, since JCU finds itself in almost the exact same spot…
John Carroll (vs Capital, Saturday, 1 pm ET) | 11.6% ALWYNI: The Blue Streaks have a lot in common with their opponent in this matchup. They had Baldwin Wallace on the ropes Wednesday night, but let it slip away in a 66-61 loss, dropping their record to 16-6. They too have a weak two-game stretch to end the regular season after today, facing the OAC’s bottom two teams — Muskingum and Heidelberg — next week. If the Blue Streaks are going to have any shot at an at-large bid, their resume will have to include a win over Capital this afternoon. A lot of it will come down to how well JCU defends Bri O’Connor and Samaree Perkins, who together average 52.3% of Capital’s 69.9 points per game.
Mary Hardin-Baylor (at ETBU, Saturday, 2 pm ET) | 13.9% ALWYNI: The Cru, who are 15-7 overall, already helped their chances significantly with a win at Hardin-Simmons back on Feb. 1, and now they get the American Southwest Conference’s No. 1 team on the road. To preserve any real chance at staying relevant in the Pool C picture, UMHB absolutely needs a win in Marshall, against an ETBU squad that beat them, 78-68, at home three weeks ago. A victory would also keep The Cru in contention for the ASC regular season title, with ETBU needing just one more win (along with a UMHB loss) to wrap up the ASC’s top spot.
Bates (vs Tufts, Sunday, 2 pm ET) | 80.9% ALWYNI: It’s still somewhat hard to believe we’re talking about Bates as a team in good position to earn an at-large bid should they need it. This was a team that found itself at the bottom of the NESCAC standings two weeks into conference play, well off track from where they were expected to be. But they turned it around just in time, and last night’s 68-54 win over Connecticut College sets up this pivotal regular season finale for the Bobcats. Having won five straight, they get a red-hot Tufts team, fresh off a stunning 60-50 win at No. 7 Smith on Tuesday night. This is Bates’ biggest test of the season, considering the circumstances, and even with over 80% odds of getting an at-large bid right now, they would put themselves in a much more secure position heading into the NESCAC Tournament with a win. With a loss? They’d likely be sitting more squarely on the bubble, needing at least one, maybe two, wins in the NESCAC Tournament to get in.
WashU (at Carnegie Mellon, Sunday, 12 pm ET) | 55.2% ALWYNI: The Bears teetered on the edge, way too close for comfort at Case Western Reserve last night, but ultimately prevailed by the slimmest of margins, 62-61. It was a tremendous game to watch, and as a reminder, NPI only sees the result, not the margin of victory. WashU’s tournament chances shot up with the win, rising by 17.8%, in fact. The second leg of the Ohio trip comes tomorrow against an even stronger Carnegie Mellon squad, who knocked off Chicago, 60-57, on Friday night. CMU is a virtual lock to get into the tournament, but WashU is still very much in that 50/50 range. There are zero guarantees for this WashU team, and of anyone this weekend, the stakes are probably highest for the Bears. The UAA is the only league in the country without a conference tournament, and NYU has already locked up the league’s regular season title, thus claiming the automatic bid to NCAAs. That leaves an at-large bid as the only path for WashU to extend its season beyond March 1. And with no conference tournament games to potentially help improve its resume, it comes down to these final four matchups with CMU, Rochester, Emory, and Chicago. It isn’t necessarily a “must-win” situation for WashU, but pretty close to it. There are scenarios where WashU gets in by going 3-1, but that might be only around 30-40% of the time. For the Bears to put themselves in a favorable position as an at-large team, they absolutely have to put up a great performance against the Tartans.
3 things that caught my attention on Friday night
Whitman pushed to the brink: The second edition of Whitman/GFU this season lived up to the hype, especially after the first meeting saw GFU outscore Whitman, 22-11, in the fourth quarter of a 59-55 loss. Playing at Whitman, the Bruins again made a run at victory, finding themselves with a chance to tie it on the game’s final play. They ended up with a long 3-point shot that bounced strongly off the back iron, falling away as Whitman escaped with a 68-65 win. It marked the Blues’ closest win over GFU since a 49-46 defeat of the Bruins on Feb. 8, 2013, and I think it speaks to the job Lauren Howard has done at GFU in her two years at the helm. Yes, it’s a tradition-rich program with a history of success, but coming into this year, GFU was on a streak of three straight losing seasons. Howard starting building things for this season as last year went along, and that has evidently paid off, as GFU sits at 16-6 and one game back from second place in the NWC standings. This is a gritty, hard-nosed GFU team that got stops when they were needed most, found high-percentage shots at the rim, and kept battling despite trailing by 10 through three quarters. The other thing that occurred to me, watching this one? The NWC Tournament is going to be a ton of fun. Only 4 teams qualify, and that group should be Whitman, Linfield, Puget Sound, and George Fox. That’s a solid field, regardless of how the seeding plays out (Whitman will be #1), and we just might get another GFU/Whitman matchup with a little more on the line here in two weeks.
Is there a more underrated race than the E8?: The Empire 8 has quietly given us one of the more entertaining races of the season, and it only continues to get better. Up in New York, we’ve got St. John Fisher at 13-1, in a familiar position atop the league standings. But they aren’t alone. Because SUNY Brockport and SUNY Geneseo, both of whom joined the E8 just this year, are also sitting there at 13-1. Geneseo picked up its fifth-straight win last night at Houghton, led by the nation’s assist leader, Mackenzie Reigle, who had 22 points and 9 assists. Their only loss? Brockport. And Brockport hit the 20-win mark for the first time since 2007-08 last night, taking down Alfred in a nice bounce-back victory after last Saturday’s three-point loss to St. John Fisher. If you’re looking for a fun conference tournament to follow, make a note to check in on the Empire 8. Each of those three are playing high-level basketball and not one of them has much of a chance at an at-large bid. So this entire build-up, with SJF beating Brockport, and Brockport beating Geneseo, and Geneseo beating SJF, and all three staying in lockstep through the league schedule, will come down to the last week of February. The winner keeps playing, and the two others will stay home. It doesn’t get more intense than that.
The battle for #8 in the NESCAC: It may seem odd that one of today’s storylines surrounds the eighth spot in the NESCAC standings, but here’s the deal. Only the Top 8 in the NESCAC standings reach the league’s tournament, which starts next week. Today is the final day of the regular season (for all except Tufts & Bates, both of whom are already in), and we have a three-way tie near the bottom. Middlebury, Hamilton, and Williams are now locked together at 4-5, with one of those three seeing its season come to an end this afternoon. There’s a certain intensity that comes with the NCAA Tournament games. There’s a level of intrigue with must-win conference tournament matchups. But the fact of entering the final day of the regular season in a three-way tie, having to wait on other results to figure out whether you’re going to get another game brings the pressure to a unique level. Williams’ big win over Hamilton last night is really what brought this one, because without that, it’s Williams would be the ninth team in the standings…and the one most likely to stay home for the tournament. Instead, Hamilton/Middlebury suddenly becomes very important, as does Williams/Amherst. If Williams can somehow pull off a surprise, and take down Amherst, the loser of Hamilton/Middlebury will be eliminated. If Williams loses, then it becomes a scenario of tie-breakers with the loser of Hamilton/Middlebury. Should be fun! Both games tip at 3 p.m. ET.
love this time of year!!!