5 double-digit seeds in the best position to win in the first round of the NCAA Tournament
My NCAA Tournament preview highlights some potential upset picks, plus my Final Four picks, some pre-tournament reading, and today's complete game schedule
Welcome to the NCAA Tournament. The day has finally arrived. 64 teams. 32 games. Only 32 spots in the second round of action tomorrow. Everyone’s season is on the line.
That’s why we love the tournament and the anticipation of it all. There’s so much at stake, and so much that you just can’t predict. And it’s great basketball all the way around, no matter where you look on the bracket. Every team has a story and has taken a journey to get here. Some, like NYU came into the year with high expectations and handed those with poise, again going through the regular season undefeated. Others, like Bethel, have exceeded the preseason expectations placed upon them. And that’s what makes the tournament awesome. It’s a culmination of this entire season, of all the games, practices, road trips, and hours spent in the weight room working towards a moment to play for the national title. It’s for an opportunity like this that every team sacrifices, pushes themselves, and puts it all on the line nearly every day starting in the late fall.
I could go on, but you get the point. We’ve got games tipping off in less than seven hours, so I might as well get to it. One of the things we always look for in the tournament is the potential dark horse or two that can pull off an upset over a higher-seeded team. Generally, those upsets don’t happen without some kind of warning, especially in Division III, where the low seeds are often 20-win teams, and have displayed their capability of competing with a high-seeded opponent at some point during the regular season. So I thought I’d take a look at five teams that are double-digit seeds (10 or above) that stand out to me as having a particularly good shot at winning in the opening round. I’m basing the seeding on NPI, so while a team might be seeded like an 8 in a true 1-through-64 bracket, they’re really a 10, put on the 8-seed line for some reason, usually geographical constraints with the bracket. So keep that in mind as well.
Have another double-digit seed that you think has a good shot to pull off an upset this afternoon/evening? Leave your thoughts in the comments below!
Vassar
The Brewers are a perfect example of a team that may have flown a bit under the radar this season, not quite Top 25 caliber, but a very dangerous 12-seed in this tournament. Matched up with Amherst in a first-round matchup at Smith, this is a highly-capable offensive squad paced by a “Big 3” in Tova Gelb, Sierra McDermed, and Julia Harvey. To be honest, it might be one of the strongest offensive trios in the entire Bowdoin quadrant, as Gelb averaged 18.6 PPG, McDermed is at 17.5 PPG, and Harvey has 15.8 PPG, while shooting 33.1% from beyond the arc. They’re no stranger to high-quality competition, having faced three tournament teams during the regular season, including a pair of nationally-ranked programs in Johns Hopkins and Catholic. That added dynamic gives me confidence in Vassar’s ability to potentially make a run.
Bates
You can’t count Bates out, especially when they’ve won six of their last seven entering the national tournament, and enter today’s matchup with Southern Virginia coming off 13 days without a game. That amount of rest late in the season isn’t common for most teams in this field, and may serve Bates well, even as a 10-seed in the bracket. Elsa Daulerio is amongst the nation’s top post players, averaging 15.2 PPG and 9.1 RPG, and gives Bates an edge there, complemented by strong guard play from Alexandra Long and Sarah Hughes.
DePauw
DePauw, a 12-seed, has flown under the radar more than most 20-6 teams out there, hampered by a 2-3 start against a very difficult five-game stretch. Since taking those losses to UW-Whitewater, Transylvania, and Illinois Wesleyan—which are nothing to be ashamed of—DePauw is 18-3, and captured the NCAC Tournament title last weekend. The talent is there to upset Bethel in the first-round, with a senior trio of Ava Hassel, Ainsley Boras, and Moira McGinley leading the way, along with junior Riley Mont. Of note, DePauw is 18th nationally in overall efficiency, and 15th on the offensive end, so we could see a offensive shootout in that 5 vs 12 matchup with Bethel, who is certainly capable of lighting up the scoreboard as well.
Tufts
The Jumbos highs have been high, most notably a win at Smith on Feb. 11, but their lows have been low, such as the 72-54 loss to Hamilton back on Feb. 8. It’s why they’re a 10-seed with a 15-10 record. But Tufts is capable of playing at a much higher level than they did at points this year, including at the end of NESCAC play. Like Bates, they’ve gone two weeks without a game, and enter more rested than Western New England from that standpoint. Sofia Gonzalez has only gotten better in the backcourt, and Monet Witherspoon has made a significant impact as a true freshman, averaging 11.6 PPG and 4.0 RPG. Expect Tufts to use a smaller rotation, so you never know how foul trouble could affect things in a matchup like this. But I think the Jumbos have a decent shot to advance and get an opportunity in the second round (presumably against Gettysburg) on Saturday.
Washington & Jefferson
Here’s another 10-seed that I think could emerge with a first-round win if they play up to their standard. At 23-4, W&J played a weaker overall schedule, but is notably the only team in the country to have beaten Baldwin Wallace this season, having done so in the season opener on Nov. 8 at home. The Presidents are led by a strong starting five made up of seniors Bryn Bezjak, Adalynn Cherry, and Meghan Dryburgh, junior Stellanie Loutsion, and sophomore Katie Kovalchick. I really like the inside-outside dynamic present within W&J’s offense, as Kovalchick is a huge presence in the paint as a 6’3 center, while Cherry and Bezjak are both shooting 37% or better from 3-point range. Facing Messiah in the opening round, W&J has waited for this moment for a few years now, missing the tournament in both 2022-23 and 2023-24 despite a winning percentage of over .880. I don’t think they let this moment and opportunity pass them by.
My Final Four picks
Alright, I can’t write a tournament preview without risking it a little bit and putting my picks out there. The Road to Salem begins today, and honestly, while I have confidence in these four, this tournament always tends to surprise us. So by no means am I betting on myself being right, but it’s fun to play along. As a reminder, you can join the D3 WBB bracket challenge on D3challenge.com!
Out of the top left quadrant, I’m taking the top seed: Bowdoin. The Polar Bears have risen to the occasion time and time again, most recently against Colby in the NESCAC final, going on a 21-8 run to close the 62-59 win. With a 27-0 record and coming out of one of the toughest leagues in the country, Bowdoin is a national title contender. Sydney Jones is the name to know on this roster, averaging 16.4 PPG, and to give you an idea of just how talented she is, the NESCAC named her Player of the Year for the second-straight season yesterday. With that honor, she became the first player in the league’s extensive WBB history to win the award in consecutive seasons and only the third to win it twice.
Out of the bottom left quadrant, I’m very torn. I feel confident it’ll be one of the top three seeds: Baldwin Wallace, Illinois Wesleyan, or UW-Oshkosh. None have an easy opening weekend draw, and it’s entirely possible at least one of those three see their seasons end before the second weekend of the tournament. Baldwin Wallace will likely have to figure out how to slow down Mary Schleusner to reach the sectionals, IWU will probably have to find a way to force Trine’s poised point guard Sydney Wagner into a few turnovers, and Oshkosh’s pod is very tough, getting Calvin (who beat Trine in the MIAA final) in the first round and Bethel or DePauw in the second round, should they reach that point. But ultimately, I’m leaning towards Oshkosh here. As I’ve said all year, the Titans can win games in the halfcourt, control the pace very well, don’t turn it over much, and have the necessary depth to change personnel and deal with foul trouble should it arise. UWO is a 3-seed, but I’m not sure anyone would be shocked if they made a run to Salem. They’re No. 8 nationally in overall efficiency for a reason.
Out of the top right, I don’t have to think twice: NYU. By no means am I overlooking the rest of the quadrant…CNU, Catholic, Randolph-Macon, Elizabethtown, and Gettysburg are all exceptional teams. But I think the Violets stand above the rest. As the defending national champs, many of their key contributors have already been here before, and they sit at a perfect 25-0 entering the tournament. Their average margin of victory? 39.4. Belle Pellecchia is the best point guard in the country (in my opinion), and Natalie Bruns ranks as one of the top forwards, not to mention the impacts of Brooke Batchelor, Caroline Peper, Jamie Behar, and others. NYU has arguably the deepest bench of any team in this tournament, and their defense is top-tier (No. 1 in defensive efficiency), complemented by the most efficient offensive in D-III. The Violets are poised for a second straight national title.
And in the bottom right quadrant, I’ll take Scranton. Like NYU, the Lady Royals have the perfect combination of top-level talent and immense depth to make a deep run. They returned 11 of their top 12 from a team that reached the Elite Eight a season ago, and it has looked like it this season, evidenced by their 26-1 record. They demolished Catholic in the Landmark title game, leading 47-17 at the half and winning 85-62. Scranton ranks No. 2 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and is a force to be reckoned with on both ends of the floor. Kaci Kranson has the capability to put 20 points on the board at any given time, and Kaeli Romanowski just plays so hard, leading the Lady Royals in both assists (101) and steals (85). The puzzle pieces have fit together quite nicely for Scranton with its starting five and main rotation, and playing at the level they did through the second half of the regular season, this looks like a team that will be playing in Salem here in a few weeks.
In the end, I’ve got 3 No. 1 seeds making it to Salem. Maybe that’s too predictable. We’ll find out soon. Though I do think the upper-most tier of D3 WBB does stand apart a bit, as I’ve noted with my Top 25 ballot multiple times this season. That top group feels a little bit untouchable, though again, that’s why we play the games and love this tournament. Nothing is guaranteed, and the matchups will be tough, however you look at it.
Today’s complete game schedule (all times ET):
Messiah vs Washington & Jefferson — 4 p.m.
Washington & Lee vs Merchant Marine — 4 p.m.
Southern Virginia vs Bates — 4:15 p.m.
Amherst vs Vassar — 4:15 p.m.
Christopher Newport vs Montclair State — 4:30 p.m.
Tufts vs Western New England — 4:30 p.m.
Bridgewater State vs Carnegie Mellon — 4:45 p.m.
Elizabethtown vs SUNY Brockport — 4:45 p.m.
Endicott vs Cortland — 5:00 p.m.
UMass Dartmouth vs Trinity (CT) — 5:00 p.m.
Bethel vs DePauw — 5:30 p.m.
Colorado College vs UW-La Crosse — 5:30 p.m.
Whitman vs UW-Superior — 5:45 p.m.
McMurry vs Cal Lutheran — 5:45 p.m.
Wartburg vs UW-Stevens Point — 6:00 p.m.
Trine vs Transylvania — 6:00 p.m.
Ohio Wesleyan vs Immaculata — 6:30 p.m.
Baldwin Wallace vs La Roche — 6:30 p.m.
Scranton vs Mount St. Mary — 6:45 p.m.
Smith vs SUNY Cobleskill — 6:45 p.m.
Catholic vs SUNY Geneseo — 7:00 p.m.
Gettysburg vs Stevens — 7:00 p.m.
Johns Hopkins vs St. Joseph (CT) — 7:15 p.m.
Randolph-Macon vs Piedmont — 7:15 p.m.
NYU vs Gallaudet — 7:30 p.m.
Bowdoin vs Brooklyn — 7:30 p.m.
UW-Oshkosh vs Calvin — 8:00 p.m.
UW-Whitewater vs Principia — 8:00 p.m.
UW-Stout vs Ripon — 8:15 p.m.
ETBU vs Texas Lutheran — 8:15 p.m.
Illinois Wesleyan vs Centre — 8:30 p.m.
Gustavus Adolphus vs Wisconsin Lutheran — 8:30 p.m.
» Find links to watch every game and track live stats at D3hoops.com.
Pre-Tournament Reading
» Want a more detailed look at the tournament ahead? Check out Gordon Mann’s in-depth preview for D3hoops.com here!
» My pre-tournament feature for D3hoops.com took a look at the impact of Randolph-Macon’s fifth-year senior Catherine Kagey and the Yellow Jackets’ historic 26-game win streak (Via D3hoops.com)
» Joe Sager’s piece on Gallaudet’s 31-year old star guard, Claire Ruiz-Tucker, and her journey back to college hoops (Via D3hoops.com)
» A great feature on Scranton senior Kyra Quigley and her journey to becoming one of Scranton’s top contributors (Via Scranton Times-Tribune)
» On Colorado College’s return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 35 years (Via Colorado Springs Gazette)
» On W&J’s quest for the program’s first NCAA Tournament win (Via Observer-Reporter)