5 big questions heading into Saturday
I took a look at potential bid thieves, how the UAA fits into the NCAA Tournament conversation, and a few under-the-radar conference finals in this Saturday morning edition of the newsletter
Welcome back to another edition of The Scoop on D3 Women’s Hoops! We’ve reached championship Saturday, and by the end of today, our NCAA Tournament picture will look very secure. 37 conferences will award automatic bids this afternoon and evening, with the at-large bid bubble getting more and more interesting as we head into a number of potential bid thief scenarios today. So I thought I’d put together a five big questions and tackle those as we look towards our last big day of conference tournament action, spanning from coast to coast.
Best chances for a bid thief?
The Empire 8 appears to be a league where a bid thief scenario is very possible, with top-seeded SUNY Brockport matching up with SUNY Geneseo for the tournament title. While Brockport should get in via an at-large, Geneseo has no chance at an at-large, so winning the AQ is their only way into the tournament. And they come in with a 56.4% chance of winning, which if it happened, would send two Empire 8 teams to the tournament, as opposed to just one if Brockport wins. Geneseo went 0-2 vs Brockport in the regular season, but is 21-6 overall.
The Skyline Conference has a real chance at a bid thief scenario, with Merchant Marine battling Mount St. Mary in the 12 p.m. ET title game. USMMA narrowly kept its perfect Skyline record alive two weeks ago against MSMC, in a 68-62 road OT win. The first meeting back on Jan. 10? A 68-65 OT win for USMMA. Is this the day when MSMC finally gets over the hump? It’ll be a tight game no doubt, and considering USMMA would earn an at-large with a loss, the Skyline could very well be a two-bid league.
Also look for the MIAA, with Calvin playing at Trine less than 24 hours after upsetting Hope in the semifinal round. Calvin, who went 0-2 against Hope in the regular season, got 20 points from Hannah Sall in the 66-62 win over the Flying Dutch, and it’s possible the Knights ride that momentum to another upset today. They played Trine fairly close in both meetings, including putting the Thunder on upset alert in a 62-59 loss on Jan. 29. Calvin has a 30.6% chance of winning the MIAA AQ.
Don’t overlook Hardin-Simmons, either. The Cowgirls match up with ETBU in the ASC tournament final tonight at 7 p.m. ET, and as a Pool A-only team, HSU would be in position to steal a bid. The Cowgirls fell to ETBU in Marshall back on Jan. 16, 73-66, and pushed the Tigers in a second meeting on Feb. 8, 82-79.
The Conference of New England also presents an opportunity for Endicott to steal a bid. This is an interesting scenario, as Endicott could get in with an at-large bid—they’re currently #16 in the at-large order per NPI—but that’s not a guarantee. Western New England would be a lock to take an at-large with a loss, so while the CNE may be a two-bid league either way, Endicott shows up as a potential bid thief, considering their chances of an at-large don’t indicate that they are guaranteed to get in with a loss in this CNE final.
How does the UAA play into all of this?
While conference tournament chaos unfolds across the country tomorrow, the UAA will be going about business as usual on the final day of its regular season. The UAA doesn’t have a conference tournament, and NYU already picked up the league’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. So what should we watch for in the UAA? The quick answer is what’s happening in Chicago and Rochester. UChicago hosts WashU and Rochester hosts Emory, with both WashU and Emory entering the day as true bubble teams. Neither have locked up spots in the tournament, and both desperately need wins to give themselves a shot. WashU simply needs a win over Chicago, a team they dominated early in UAA play to feel good about their chances. Emory needs a little more help in addition to a win at Rochester, particularly from Chicago. A WashU loss makes Emory’s path to the tournament much more likely, though the Eagles also need to hope that Bowdoin, Carnegie Mellon, Washington & Lee, and Millsaps all win as well. A three-bid UAA doesn’t seem possible this year, so there’s not really a likely scenario where both Emory and WashU get in. It’ll be one or the other (or neither, if both lose).
Biggest surprise of Friday?
There were certainly a few upsets that stood out, but none was bigger than Wittenberg’s win at Ohio Wesleyan. OWU, who went 14-0 in the NCAC, was in a conference tournament semifinal at home against a team they’d beaten by double digits twice in the regular season. But Wittenberg, playing inspired basketball with its season on the line, stepped up in the fourth quarter, going on a 19-4 run to close the 56-54 victory. OWU, who shot just 21.4% in the second half, had no answer for Wittenberg once the Tigers got rolling late. And while the Battling Bishops had a chance at the tie on the game’s final possession, they were unable to convert and avoid the upset bid. While Wittenberg played solid basketball for most of this year and opened the season 7-1, I’m not sure anyone expected to see OWU bow out of the NCAC Tournament in the semifinal round. Wittenberg turned the ball over 23 times, shot just six free throws, and had just two scorers in double figures, but won on the defensive end. We’ll see how much that carries over today against DePauw, another very capable offense that is seeking back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances.
What are 3 under-the-radar matchups to keep an eye on?
The CCS championship may not have a lot of attention on it, but the 3 p.m. ET matchup between No. 3 seed Belhaven and No. 1 seed Piedmont has several storylines. For starters, Belhaven has never earned an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament in its history as a D-III program and Piedmont’s last trip to the tournament came a little while ago, in 2019. There’s also the fact that the two split the regular season series against each other along with the dynamic of Piedmont being 10-0 at home and Belhaven holding a 10-game win streak that stretches back to Jan. 29. From a bracketing standpoint, it’ll also be a factor. Piedmont can get to Randolph-Macon or Washington & Lee by bus, but Belhaven can’t. However, the Blazers could bus to the Texas pod if they earn the AQ, creating some interesting bracketing scenarios involving both the CCS and SAA champs and the qualifying teams out of Region 10.
I mentioned the Skyline Conference title game above, but I really think that could be one of the most entertaining games of the day. MSMC is playing with its season on the line, and where else do you find a matchup where the two opponents already played two overtime games earlier in the year? (There is a real answer to that, by the way…You’ll find it in eastern Wisconsin). You also have the fact that USMMA is looking to enter the national tournament at 25-1, with their lone loss coming to the nation’s unanimous No. 1 team. Throw in the bid thief scenario with a MSMC win, and you might get a real classic in Kings Point, NY.
Grinnell at Ripon in the Midwest Conference Championship also could fly under the radar in this massive slate of games, but keep an eye on it. Grinnell, as the No. 3 seed, matched up with Ripon better than just about anyone else in the MWC this season, winning once by 13 and losing in the second meeting by just 3. The Pioneers will keep pace with the conference favorites, and come in with an eight-game win streak, their longest since 1990-91. A win today would put Grinnell into the NCAA Tournament for the first time ever. That storyline contrasts with Ripon, who is no stranger to this moment or cutting down the nets after a conference title. The Redhawks, who are 22-4, have won five of the last six MWC Tournaments, and will have home court advantage. 4 p.m. ET tip-off in that one.
Most anticipated conference title games?
This is obviously opinion-based, but I think in terms of watching two juggernauts face off one last time this season, the WIAC and Landmark finals will be two to tune into.
The WIAC title game pits No. 10 UW-Oshkosh at home against No. 25 UW-Whitewater, and this is the matchup I had alluded to earlier. In their two regular season meetings, they went to OT twice, including a double OT classic in Oshkosh’s 77-69 win on Feb. 5. The Titans of UWO are 2-0 against UWW this season, but this is no longer the regular season. The record is what it is, but UWW took UWO to the wire both times, and the Warhawks are more than capable of breaking through with a win here, especially if Kacie Carollo puts up another 20-point performance like she did at UW-Stout on Thursday. We’ll get to see two of the top offensive teams in the WIAC go head-to-head and more than anything, you’re guaranteed to see high-quality, Midwest basketball. Of note, we’ve now seen these two match up at some point in the WIAC Tournament eight times in the last nine years.
The Landmark also promises to impress with No. 4 Scranton hosting No. 15 Catholic in a battle of two heavyweights. With a win, Catholic would almost certainly secure an opportunity to host on the first weekend (always depends on the geography, but Catholic would be locked in as a Top 16 seed at that point), but getting a win over Scranton won’t come easily. The Cardinals came close in the second meeting, falling 62-53, but have beaten the Lady Royals just once in the last 10 meetings and last won at Scranton on Feb. 21, 2021. That said, this is one of the most experienced teams Catholic has had, with a veteran backcourt led by Anna Scoblick, Keegan Douglas, and Kerry Flaherty. Scranton is also led by a experienced core, having returned nearly its entire roster from last season. With that dynamic, not only does the level of poise get that much higher from both sides, but you also have a familiarity piece between a lot of these players, who have gone up against each other a bunch in the last few seasons. They know each other well, and I expect to see this one decided late in the fourth quarter.
Also keep an eye out for No. 6 Gustavus Adolphus, who is playing at No. 24 Bethel in the MIAC championship (4 p.m. ET), No. 20 Washington & Lee aiming to snap No. 18 Randolph-Macon’s 25-game win streak in the ODAC final in Salem (8 p.m. ET), and the duel out on the West Coast between George Fox and No. 5 Whitman in the NWC title game (9 p.m. ET).
» Quick reminder that Scott Peterson and I will host a livestream live on YouTube this evening to discuss the at-large bid picture, the up-to-date NPI rankings, the day’s biggest games, and what to watch for tomorrow. Find that stream here starting around 8 p.m. ET, and feel free to reach out with any questions. We’ll work to answer them on the show.