3-2-1: Upsets in the ODAC and OAC highlight first big night of conference tournament action
UW-La Crosse, Ferrum, and Otterbein headlined Tuesday's conference tournament action across the country
We had the NESCAC, Empire 8, and other leagues already tip-off their conference tournaments over the weekend, but last night was the first big slate of 100% postseason action. And it delivered with a number of noteworthy performances, highlighted by a couple of upsets and a great game in the WIAC quarterfinals.
I break it down in this 3-2-1 edition of the newsletter, looking at 3 takeaways, 2 games to watch, and 1 stat as we head into Wednesday. Have a great day!
3 things that stood out
With backs against the wall, La Crosse responded
In one of the more anticipated conference tournament quarterfinals on Tuesday, UW-La Crosse and UW-Stevens Point clashed for the second time in a four-day span. UWSP had won at home in Saturday’s regular season finale, 67-60, but in the same scenario Tuesday—same two opponents, same gym—UWL showed up with something to prove. The Eagles, who entered the night with low chances of an at-large bid, handled the pressure just fine in a 71-67 victory. It puts UWL into a semifinal at UW-Oshkosh on Thursday, as the chance of five WIACs in the NCAA Tournament simultaneously rises. In a tight game, UWL executed in the most critical moments, notably going 9-of-11 at the free throw line in the last 1:18, including two key makes from Lauren Milne with six seconds left. UWSP hit the third of three 3s in the final minute with 18 seconds to go, but Milne’s free throws put the game on ice, pushing it back to a two-possession lead. The offense was about as good as it could’ve been for UWL, who had all five starters score in double figures as they shot 46.9% from the field and 20-of-24 at the FT line. UWL has now won its first round WIAC Tournament game for the third time in the last four years.
The day’s biggest surprise? Ferrum, not Bridgewater, is heading to the ODAC semifinals
One of the perceived “pros” with moving the ODAC Tournament to an eight-team bracket (compared to 10) with quarterfinals played at the sites of the top seeds was that there would be some sort of “reward” for the league’s best teams. A home game, especially in a tournament setting, is often a significant help compared to the old ODAC format of playing every tournament game inside the Salem Civic Center. But home court advantage doesn’t always equal favorable results for the hosts, as Bridgewater found out last night. The Eagles came in as the ODAC’s No. 2 seed, but in a similar storyline to La Crosse/Stevens Point, Ferrum emerged as the victors. Just four days prior, Bridgewater controlled the Panthers in a 51-38 home win, but Ferrum was clearly the better team on Tuesday night, outscoring the Eagles over the final three quarters and shooting 51.2%. The biggest difference between Saturday and Tuesday? Allyson Cassell. The junior forward didn’t play in the regular season finale, but was Ferrum’s biggest weapon in the quarterfinal, with a 21-point, 11-rebound double-double. That added offensive presence, especially in the post, proved invaluable for Ferrum against Bridgewater’s tough defense. Not only will Bridgewater not be heading to Salem as anticipated, but the Eagles are eliminated from NCAA Tournament contention. Scott Peterson’s latest predictive model now has Bridgewater’s at-large bid chances at 0.0%.
Otterbein’s huge OAC Tournament road upset
Otterbein was a pretty sizable underdog heading into last night’s OAC quarterfinal at John Carroll, but you wouldn’t have known it by the way the Cardinals opened the game. After falling behind 7-0, they closed the first quarter on a 14-0 run, taking control then and there. Not much changed over the next three quarters, as JCU suffered the upset loss, Otterbein prevailing by a 71-54 margin. Incredibly, it marked the Cardinals’ first OAC Tournament win on the road since beating Capital in the first round of the 2019 tournament. I thought it really came down to the way Otterbein defended the 3, something they’ve done well all year. JCU, who at one point this season led the nation in 3-pointers per game, kept taking shots from beyond the arc, but very few seemed to be in-rhythm. The result was JCU going 4-of-23, something the Blue Streaks simply had no way of overcoming. This is a pretty telling stat: In just two games this season, JCU shot below 17.5% from beyond the arc….both came against Otterbein.
2 games to keep an eye on this evening
Nazareth at Brockport | 5:30 p.m. ET | Empire 8 Semifinal: Of the two Empire 8 semifinals, this could end up being the tighter one of the two. Nazareth is a better team than they were in the only regular season meeting between these two, and I think the matchup between Nazareth PG Katie MacLachlan against a Brockport defense forcing 22.4 turnovers/game is intriguing. Nazareth has a 1.29 assist-to-turnover ration (#2 in the E8), in large part because of MacLachlan’s backcourt contributions this season. There’s also the fact that Brockport could become a bid thief if they take an upset loss, entering the day with a 47.5% chance of an at-large bid if needed (that number would decrease with a loss but more than likely still be above 30%). For current bubble teams, that’s something to keep an eye on.
Martin Luther at UW-Superior | 8 p.m. ET | UMAC Semifinal: In a one-bid league, there’s some upset potential here. Martin Luther already beat Superior once this season, winning 60-52 on Jan. 18, before losing the second meeting, 70-63. The Knights have played the UMAC favorites close twice now, and their defense leads the UMAC in scoring defense, opponent field goal percentage, opponent 3-point percentage, and defensive rebounding. Here’s the other storyline to know: Martin Luther hasn’t won a UMAC Tournament game since Feb. 22, 2016, when they beat S.t Scholastica in a first round contest. That could change tonight.
1 stat
The two active career leaders in points scored in D-III women’s hoops played their final games last night. Rivier’s Lyric Grumblatt scored 34 points in 39 minutes in a 93-84 loss to St. Joseph (CT), finishing her career with 2,523 points in four seasons. Grumblatt started every game she played in at Rivier, making 106 consecutive starts. Baruch’s Mia Castillo had 15 points in a 62-48 loss to Brooklyn, and closes her time at Baruch with 2,320 career points, having started 97 of the 98 games she appeared in. Ohio Wesleyan’s Kasey Schipfer and Albertus Magnus’ Caitlyn Scott are now the only active 2,000-point scorers whose teams are still playing.
At-Large Bid Analysis
Whose at-large when you need it (ALWYNI) chances rose on Tuesday night?
With the win over Stevens Point, UW-La Crosse was the biggest riser, up by 18.6% to 28.3%.
Hope, who beat UWL earlier in the year, also benefitted even without playing, going up by 17.3% to 37.8%.
WashU ticked up to 52.7%, a rise of 11.1%. As one of the more clear “bubble” teams at this point, losses by John Carroll and Bridgewater helped WashU, as those two being eliminated from at-large contention gives WashU a better chance of getting a bid.
Similarly, Mary Hardin-Baylor rose by 9.2% to 28.6%. Like WashU, UMHB is a bubble team that benefitted greatly from a couple of fellow at-large contenders taking losses last night.
Whose at-large when you need it (ALWYNI) chances took a dip?
UW-Stevens Point remains in a solid spot, but dropped from 86.7% to a less-comfortable 58.1% with the quarterfinal loss to UWL. All the Pointers can do now is wait and hope for a low number of bid thieves as this weekend’s games play out. It’d take a pretty high number of bid thieves to push UWSP to the outside looking in.
With their losses, John Carroll dropped 21.4% to 0.0% and Bridgewater dropped 12.8% to 0.0%.
Rhode Island College saw a minor dip, dropping by 2.4% to 11.0%.
» Be sure to follow Scott Peterson’s “Season Simulations” model for this data, updated daily on d3data.weebly.com.