3-2-1: Macon aiming to make history, TCNJ/Montclair State set for pivotal NJAC duel, A correlation between defense and the nation's top teams?
3 things that stood out yesterday, 2 underrated games to keep an eye on today, and 1 stat that stands out
We’re midway through the final week of the regular season! While yesterday was a lighter slate of games, there were still plenty of storylines that emerged, not to mention a huge schedule of games this evening from coast to coast. In case you missed it, I posted my weekly Top 25 Ballot Breakdown yesterday afternoon (find that here), going through my ranking and some of the things that stood out as I compiled my ballot on Monday.
Before we get to tonight’s action, here’s a 3-2-1 edition of the newsletter, with 3 things that stood out yesterday, 2 underrated games to keep an eye on today, and 1 stat that stands out. Enjoy!
3 things that stood out from yesterday’s games
Randolph-Macon on the verge of history
If you’re searching for the last team to go through the entirety of ODAC play undefeated, you’ll need to dig pretty far back into the archives. Two decades, in fact. Randolph-Macon’s historic 2004-05 team, which made a run to the national title game, was the last to do so, going 20-0 and setting an ODAC record with 30 wins overall. 20 years later, and Lindsey Burke-Eberhart’s 2024-25 team is venturing into the same territory. The Yellow Jackets took down Shenandoah last night, 69-57, in a game they led by as many as 20 and out-rebounded the Hornets by 15. Their win streak? 22. Their ODAC record? 15-0. Just one game—Saturday’s regular season finale at home against Averett—stands between RMC and another perfect year in the ODAC. Not only will they go to Salem as the favorites to win the ODAC crown (of note, only semifinals and finals will be played in Salem this year, with quarterfinals on campus sites), but it’s almost a certainty that the Yellow Jackets will be hosting a first-weekend pod in the NCAA Tournament. When you consider that the program’s last NCAA Tournament appearance was 2019-20, and they’ve made it to that point only three times previously since 2013-14, it makes this season all the more special. And keep an eye on McKenzie Matheny; a transfer from D1 Mount St. Mary’s, she has brought a lot to this team, and might go down as one of the most impactful transfers in the country this season. Last night she had 21 points on an efficient 9-of-12 shooting, marking her eighth double-digit scoring performance in the last nine.
In regular season finale with huge implications, Brockport rose to the occasion
As fate would have it, SUNY Brockport and SUNY Geneseo, the two newcomers to the E8, matched up last night in a perfect storyline. On the final day of the regular season, Brockport just needed a win to wrap up the league title and secure hosting throughout its E8 Tournament run. But that win had to come against Geneseo, the team the Golden Eagles were tied with atop the standings. It was a winner-take-all kind of scenario, and one that Brockport rose to the challenge in. With the score tight entering the fourth quarter, favoring Brockport, 57-53, the Golden Eagles rattled off four quick points. That was only the beginning of what turned out as an 18-9 game-sealing run, with Brockport cruising to a lead of 19 with 3:49 to go. The 75-62 win pushed them to a 15-1 finish in the E8, and a 22-3 finish to the regular season, as Brockport remains hot on the trail of its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2008-09. And if I can reiterate a point I made last week, the E8 Tournament is going to be one to watch. Besides Brockport, none of the other top four—Geneseo, St. John Fisher, and Nazareth—have any chance of an at-large bid. So you have four teams, all of whom finished with conference records of 13-3 or better—with one bid on the line to the national tournament. Even in Brockport’s case, an at-large bid is far from a guarantee. Have to love the drama of the postseason!
McMurry survived Concordia’s upset bid
McMurry nearly dropped a second game to underdog Concordia (TX) this season, as the Warhawks found themselves in yet another battle with Tornados, and this time, at home. The importance of this one nationally surrounded McMurry’s standing within the at-large bid picture, as one of the likely “bubble-in” teams. If you are a team projected to be on the outside looking in (think “First Four Out” to use bracketology terms), a loss by a bubble-in team like McMurry could go a long way to raising your chances an at-large. As a result, every bubble team was rooting for Concordia last night as the game wound to a close, and for a little while, it seemed the upset might happen. The Tornados led 67-66, with 2:39 left. But McMurry closed on an 8-0 run to win 74-67, as Concordia closed the game by missing its final six shots. In the updated NPI picture from D3Datacast.com, McMurry would be No. 12 in the at-large bid order if the season ended today.
2 underrated games to watch today
TCNJ at Montclair State, 5:30 p.m. ET: This is the biggest game in the NJAC this season. In a one-bid league, both squads enter 15-2 in league play…and it’s the final day of the regular season. Like Brockport/Geneseo, you can’t find a matchup with more on the line or with better timing than this. Montclair boasts the NJAC’s top scoring offense (70.5 PPG) and TCNJ has the NJAC’s No. 1 defense (53.6 PPG). That will be the matchup to watch in this one.
Manchester at Franklin, 7:00 p.m. ET: The HCAC Tournament includes eight teams, and heading into the final night of conference action, just one spot is left. Manchester and Bluffton are each 5-12, the two teams left who have not qualified for the tournament but who have also not been mathematically eliminated. That dynamic of Manchester both needing a win and a Bluffton loss to get in, along with the fact that Franklin will be looking to avenge the 79-70 loss to Manchester earlier this year, will make for a intriguing contest. Manchester is just 2-8 on the road this season, but the motivation of what’s at stake should give the Spartans a bit of a boost in what will be the most critical game of their season.
1 Notable Stat
» Of the Top 10 teams in NPI right now, 6 rank in the Top 10 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. Those 6 being: NYU, Scranton, Gettysburg, Gustavus Adolphus, Bowdoin, and Baldwin Wallace. Defense wins championships! It appears there is a clear correlation between high-level defense and winning; of the eight teams with active win streaks of 20 or more, all rank in the Top 35 nationally in scoring defense, and four rank in the Top 15.
As a reminder, check out D3Datacast.com for updated WBB NPI rankings each morning and daily score predictions of that day’s games. Also bookmark d3data.weebly.com, including the “Season Simulations” model!